PNW April 2023 Weather Discussion

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

I think you’re looking at the wrong year? 2009 evolved from the far west-pacific and was full blown modoki niño by the end of summer. Check out the VP200 standing wave in the hovmollers on Paul Roundy’s site (which I linked last week IIRC).

I wish this were a 2009 type evolution though. With -QBO establishing by the end of this year it would be the perfect winter setup here.

The only thing that is available on WB are SSTA maps around the current day going back to 1982.   

In early April 2009 it looked like the Nino was starting out as east based... but I can't see what happened after that.  

Didn't you have massive blizzard in early 2010?

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The only thing that is available on WB are SSTA maps around the current day going back to 1982.   

In early April 2009 it looked like the Nino was starting out as east based... but I can't see what happened after that.  

Didn't you have massive blizzard in early 2010?

Okay, I see how one could be fooled looking back at SSTAs in early 2009. It was much farther behind and there was some early EPAC warmth.

However, the standing wave set up much farther west that year, with -VP200 anomalies over the WPAC all year long. Not the case this year, at least for now.

 

[TT-SEA]

14 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

First time I've seen it not raining in the last 56+ hours.

Rain just ended here too.     Its been raining for the majority of the time here since Thursday afternoon.    An extended AR type rain event is the one thing that was missing over the last few months.   Box checked.   

[Phil]

That said, the problem with “super niño” predictions this year is the lack of a stable coupling signature in OLR/VP200 over the dateline. That is almost universal in years that went on to become potent niños (and even some years that didn’t).

I’m looking for anything indicating a big niño this year, and unfortunately (for me) I’m just not seeing it. I think the actual outcome will be something more modest, and the seasonal models are far too aggressive.

This is not the type of VP200 signature you’d expect in a developing strong/super nino, even intraseasonally. Looks more like a phase 8/1/2 regime, as opposed to the more typical phase 6/7/8 during the early stages of stronger events.

[TT-SEA]

Quite the c-zone going now between Everett and Stanwood.

Sky getting bright here as the SW wind ramps up.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

one year memories

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

That said, the problem with “super niño” predictions this year is the lack of a stable coupling signature in OLR/VP200 over the dateline. That is almost universal in years that went on to become potent niños (and even some years that didn’t).

I’m looking for anything indicating a big niño this year, and unfortunately (for me) I’m just not seeing it. I think the actual outcome will be something more modest, and the seasonal models are far too aggressive.

This is not the type of VP200 signature you’d expect in a developing strong/super nino even intraseasonally. Looks more like a phase 8/1/2 regime.

Good information... you are like a crystal ball when it comes to ENSO.     I am definitely cheering against a super Nino.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

one year memories

Ichabod??

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Ichabod??

Yes???

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Good information... you are like a crystal ball when it comes to ENSO.     I am definitely cheering against a super Nino.

Ha, well I appreciate the sentiment. We’ll see.

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, RentonHill said:

I wanted a Syclone soooo bad. 

I got it last summer and we had a bunch of portable A/Cs in the house. I started pulling them all apart because I thought they were blowing toxic refrigerant/freon gas. I laugh at it now but for a few hours I was legit like Saul's older brother who went crazy pulling out all the electric wiring in his house. 

So did I…Actually I still do! 

[MossMan]

24 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Quite the c-zone going now between Everett and Stanwood.

Sky getting bright here as the SW wind ramps up.  

Yeah it’s quite wet up here! 

[Cold Snap]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

 

Would that end up having any effect on the climate? I’m assuming it won’t.

[MossMan]

31 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Rain just ended here too.     Its been raining for the majority of the time here since Thursday afternoon.    An extended AR type rain event is the one thing that was missing over the last few months.   Box checked.   

I was quite lucky up here being shadowed the majority of the weekend. Windy and dry was lovely! And a wet week so far has also been lovely! 

[Cold Snap]

The ash cloud from the eruption is over 12 miles high. That’s pretty well into the stratosphere. Basically at the ozone layer.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

The ash cloud from the eruption is over 12 miles high. That’s pretty well into the stratosphere. Basically at the ozone layer.

Looks like on average there are 2 volcanic eruptions world wide each year that reach the stratosphere.  

[Slushy Inch]

Looks quite active.

[Deweydog]

Sun

[Cold Snap]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like on average there are 2 volcanic eruptions world wide each year that reach the stratosphere.  

Yeah that’s why I’m assuming this will have no effect on the climate. But I feel like it’s still a pretty big eruption either way.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Cold Snap said:

Yeah that’s why I’m assuming this will have no effect on the climate. But I feel like it’s still a pretty big eruption either way.

Seems to be pretty big.   

This particular volcano has been erupting continuously since 1999... although not to this level of activity.  

[Anti Marine Layer]

It's time to annoy Jesse's twin brother in Bend again with my posts.

[Cascadia_Wx]

The only volcanoes whose climate affects are worth considering are the ones that might cause warming. Get with the program guys.

Edited April 11, 2023 by Cascadia_Wx

[Cascadia_Wx]

7 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Looks quite active.

Such a massive trough. Will be interested to see what the models decide to do with it eventually.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Such a massive trough. Will be interested to see what the models decide to do with it eventually.

April 2022 redux 

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Such a massive trough. Will be interested to see what the models decide to do with it eventually.

Looks like 3 days of cool onshore flow. Some previous runs had some low pressures spinning up.

[The Blob]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Are you feeling suicidal again?   We are here for you.  

Not since I got on happy pills lol

[TT-SEA]

I think the ECMWF is starting to show signs of the MJO moving into phase 8 next week.   This ridging might actually happen as slow retrogression continues.    We will see.   I had no confidence in the ridging shown for this past weekend or this coming weekend given the MJO is solidly in phase 7.

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

I think the ECMWF is starting to show signs of the MJO moving into phase 8 next week.   This ridging might actually happen as slow retrogression continues.    We will see.   I had no confidence in the ridging shown for this past weekend or this coming weekend given the MJO is solidly in phase 7.

Ready to be teased again.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

Ready to be teased again.

Let’s hope so. That looks like a horrible pattern.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Ready to be teased again.

Maybe... but the MJO is definitely on the move so it should become less favorable for western troughing over time.     The Ag Weather updates have taught me some tips.  

[Phishy Wx]

2 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

That’s decent for over there.

not bad but under performed the forecast of .75-1.0"

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

not bad but under performed the forecast of .75-1.0"

Oof. Smoke, graupel and fires starting any day now.

[GHweatherChris]

Wow, joking about suicide is ok on here, that's effed up.  I lost a close cousin to suicide, nothing to joke about.

[MossMan]

Rain/snow mix and 35 at home! Was positive splats at work so I drove up the hill behind my house on my way home for lunch and it’s all snow! 

[TT-SEA]

13 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Wow, joking about suicide is ok on here, that's effed up.  I lost a close cousin to suicide, nothing to joke about.

Wow is right.   You are such a tool.        

It was not a joke.   Phil has confided in us in the past about this issue.   And he wished for an extinction event which would mean his death (and all of us) and said it would be a blessing so it does beg the question if everything is OK.   

Side note... I also lost a cousin to suicide.   Not that it matters to the discussion here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Wow is right.   You are such a tool.        

It was not a joke.   Phil has confided in us in the past about this issue.   And he wished for an extinction event which would mean his death (and all of us) so it does beg the question if everything is OK.

Side note... I also lost a cousin to suicide.   Not that it matters to the discussion here.

I wouldn't take a comment about a Yellowstone Caldera eruption seriously. Just saying. 

[Omegaraptor]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Wow is right.   You are such a tool.        

It was not a joke.   Phil has confided in us in the past about this issue.   And he wished for an extinction event which would mean his death (and all of us) and said it would be a blessing so it does beg the question if everything is OK.   

Side note... I also lost a cousin to suicide.   Not that it matters to the discussion here.

bro it was a misunderstanding

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

bro it was a misunderstanding

I am well aware that it was very likely he was joking... but I am always concerned about Phil given what he has told us about his past.  

[MossMan]

Almost all snow now! 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MossMan said:

Almost all snow now! 

That is pretty crazy for the middle of the day in April.  

Quite sunny here now.