September 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[MossMan]

Puyallupjon cares not about such things. All that matters to him is maintaining a golden tan in the summer, and building snow monsters in the winter.

I thought he also enjoyed building mud monsters as well?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

If there’s going to be an Arctic pipeline this winter, I hope it’s centered over the Plains/Midwest. I despise suppressed cold/dry patterns with a passion.

 

That crazy Midwest cold wave gave us a glancing blow last January, but it largely missed. Single digits and a burst of 65mph gusts was the result.

I would have never thought that I would ever despise an Arctic Blast but then Dec 13 happened. It was brutal getting all that frigid air and waiting for some moisture to arrive. It never came while areas to the south got pummeled.

[El_Nina]

It's sunny?!

[TacomaWaWx]

Puyallupjon cares not about such things. All that matters to him is maintaining a golden tan in the summer, and building snow monsters in the winter.

haha well there’s nothing wrong with that!

[TacomaWaWx]

It technically will be one. Just a September version of it. Same mechanisms though.

It’d be a lot cooler if this set up in about 6 weeks from now but it’s still interesting that ones setting up now. I’m going to go see the first snow of the year up in the cascades this weekend I’m excited to see some flakes.

[Jesse]

[TacomaWaWx]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Dropped into the mid-40s for only the 2nd time this month. 

[Phil]

That guy is also claiming the PDO influences the climate system...

Lots of blob-ologists out there.

 

I think the +PMM component (subtropical NPAC SST warmth below 20N) does influence the ITCZ width/tropical forcing on the wave train, but that is dynamically distinct from the PDO and the “blob” in the extratropical NPAC, which appears to be irrelevant and more of an effect of low frequency wave states triggered by said tropical forcing, rather than a cause of them.

[Phil]

[Phil]

Very impressive. Also generally a pre-niño signal at this point in the seasonal cycle, FWIW.

 

[Phil]

Which explains the low-frequency signal over the W-IO showing up in the EPS weeklies. Can expect subsidence over the Maritime Continent to continue in the long run, beneath intraseasonal/MJO variability.

 

[Jesse]

Which explains the low-frequency signal over the W-IO showing up in the EPS weeklies. Can expect subsidence over the Maritime Continent to continue in the long run, beneath intraseasonal/MJO variability.

 

 

So does that mean I should bring a jacket to work today or?

[Phil]

So does that mean I should bring a jacket to work today or?

I guess that depends on ur temp preferences.

[Jesse]

Dropped into the mid-40s for only the 2nd time this month. 

 

PDX was only able to drop to 60 degrees by midnight last night. This means that 2019 now hold the record for most lows 60 degrees or above at that station, with 56. This beats 2015, which had 55.

[TacomaWaWx]

Latest gfs run is roughly the same compared to the 0z and the 6z.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Got down to 54F this morning. Up to 56F and cloudy.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

PDX was only able to drop to 60 degrees by midnight last night. This means that 2019 now hold the record for most lows 60 degrees or above at that station, with 56. This beats 2015, which had 55.

 

Was weird, I was in downtown Portland last Thursday and it was 58 degrees on my car thermometer around 7pm. Looked at PDX obs and they were in the mid-60s. 

[ShawniganLake]

We’re fukced. IOD also spiked in the fall of 2015. There’s always next year

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks like we switch from the September version of BSF to ENF on Sat afternoon in the south valley.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Already hit here!

Score! You'll need to get a snow blower this winter!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sucks winter has already been canceled. 

[MossMan]

Score! You'll need to get a snow blower this winter!

According to Phil I will need sunscreen not a snow blower.

[Omegaraptor]

Looks like Tri-Cities is probably set for its second coldest September high on record. Coldest is 51 in 1934. Second coldest is 55 in 1992.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Too much Iodine in the atmosphere or something like that. 

[Jesse]

Was weird, I was in downtown Portland last Thursday and it was 58 degrees on my car thermometer around 7pm. Looked at PDX obs and they were in the mid-60s.

Some of their numbers have gotten a little silly over the years.

 

Whenever I look at one of those MESOWEST obs maps for the metro area, they will generally be 2-3 degrees warmer than anywhere else in that part of Portland or Vancouver.

[Jesse]

Had a midnight low of 55 here yesterday. Hit 52 by morning.

[TacomaWaWx]

Gfs wants to bring in some rain from the NW at hr 192-210.

[Omegaraptor]

Some of their numbers have gotten a little silly over the years.

Whenever I look at one of those MESOWEST obs maps for the metro area, they will generally be 2-3 degrees warmer than anywhere else in that part of Portland or Vancouver.

Yeah, July 2019 at PDX is ridiculous compared to HIO. Even with the abnormally warm nights this summer, some of those figures at PDX are just stupid.

[TacomaWaWx]

Nice to see this in late September.

[Omegaraptor]

Wenatchee actually could have its coldest September high on record. Current record is 49°F set on 9/23/1934. Forecast high for the 29th is 48°F.

[Front Ranger]

Wenatchee actually could have its coldest September high on record. Current record is 49°F set on 9/23/1934. Forecast high for the 29th is 48°F.

 

A myriad of records are likely to fall with this.

[Front Ranger]

GFS = RELOAD!

[ShawniganLake]

GFS = RELOAD!

Not much continental flavor with that “reload”

 

Probably only Andrew will see snow

[Jesse]

Wenatchee actually could have its coldest September high on record. Current record is 49°F set on 9/23/1934. Forecast high for the 29th is 48°F.

Where are you getting these forecast highs?

[TacomaWaWx]

Wenatchee actually could have its coldest September high on record. Current record is 49°F set on 9/23/1934. Forecast high for the 29th is 48°F.

Record coldest high I have is 55 degrees back in 2007 (only have records going back to 2005 at my location). Coldest low is 42 from 2008. Wouldn’t be suprised to see both of those go down. I’d have to look back into Tacoma’s historical records to see how this compares to other September cold snaps, likely will rival some of the old records.

[Jesse]

Was weird, I was in downtown Portland last Thursday and it was 58 degrees on my car thermometer around 7pm. Looked at PDX obs and they were in the mid-60s.

For the record, I really doubt this story. Most places in the Portland area were in the mid-70s yesterday. There’s no way downtown Portland was 58 degrees before sunset.

 

Seems like great Brian Schmidt trolling material though.

[Omegaraptor]

Where are you getting these forecast highs?

I was using Wunderground. Turns out NWS is showing a high of 52 for Wenatchee. Not record but still impressive.

[Jesse]

I was using Wunderground. Turns out NWS is showing a high of 52 for Wenatchee. Not record but still impressive.

Ah.

[ShawniganLake]

For the record, I really doubt this story. Most places in the Portland area were in the mid-70s yesterday. There’s no way downtown Portland was 58 degrees before sunset.

 

Seems like great Brian Schmidt trolling material though.

He said last Thursday