September 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Jesse]

He said last Thursday

Well maybe it’s legit then.

[Jesse]

Well according to this PDX hit 59 at 11:59pm.

 

https://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?date=&wfo=pqr&sid=PDX&pil=CLI

 

That would mean that 2019 remains tied with 2015 (for now) UHI cancel!!

[Front Ranger]

I was using Wunderground. Turns out NWS is showing a high of 52 for Wenatchee. Not record but still impressive.

 

NWS is notoriously conservative, of course. They will very rarely forecast historic temps, even if model output shows that.

[Jesse]

Nice.

 

[Phil]

According to Phil I will need sunscreen not a snow blower.

That’s news to me.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I wish winter would come.

[Deweydog]

I wish winter would come.

Did you try massaging its prostate?

[Jesse]

I wish winter would come.

Is this the part of the movie where frosty the snowman appears at your doorstep with a twinkle in his eye and you take his hand into a magical winter wonderland, Andrew? :’)

[TacomaWaWx]

61 and mostly sunny at noon. Mid/high level clouds are increasing, but it’s been a very nice day so far.

[Front Ranger]

With the clash of very warm/very cold air masses, next week looks primed for a fall severe outbreak over the middle of the country.

[Omegaraptor]

Grass is a lot greener this year compared to this time last year.

[TT-SEA]

65 and sunny here... gorgeous day.

 

[MossMan]

Grass is a lot greener this year compared to this time last year.

Yeah with nearly 5” of rain over the last 3-4 weeks the already green landscape here is now severe green!

[TacomaWaWx]

Grass is a lot greener this year compared to this time last year.

Grass was fairly dormant like until late August or so. Have had 3.60” of rain over the last 36 days grass is fully green almost now. Grass is much greener here than it was at this time last year also much greener than it was even in late May and June of this year.

[GHweatherChris]

Beautiful day out on the golf course today!!

[ShawniganLake]

Beautiful day out on the golf course today!!

How green is the grass?

[Phil]

[GHweatherChris]

How green is the grass?

Green, wasn't so much a month ago.

[Jesse]

EPS is just a little slower to move things east early next week compared to the operational. Should be a great setup for cold nights with the cool airmass remaining overhead through Tuesday.

 

Also good agreement for a secondary trough in the 7-10 day range.

[TacomaWaWx]

Great gfs run.

[Jbolin]

Hard drive crashed last night, have a new one now and having to recoup some lost links. 

If any of you yahoo's can help that'd be great, specifically looking for LR maps, ensemble spreads, spaghetti charts as well as high res charts for the Pac Nw

Thanks

[HighlandExperience]

Just got the word that our offer has been accepted for our new house in Maple Valley!!

 

Looking forward to checking out a new micro-climate as we head into fall and winter!

Are you on the north end of Maple Valley? Hope your experience won’t be like snowizard in Covington.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z looks cold this weekend. 

[BLI snowman]

18z looks cold this weekend. 

 

Weird, I figured it was going to get pretty warm this weekend.

[Blizzard777]

Lovely few days down at Rockaway Or.

Currently 65* and sunny

Afternoon winds creating some issues fishing but this morning was perfect!

[luvssnow_spokane]

I wish winter would come.

I think you spelled "come" wrong... ? 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I think you spelled "come" wrong... ? 

 

Not til Dec-Jan pls, edging in mid-late Nov is ok tho.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Arctic front!

[TacomaWaWx]

67/50 day in Tacoma, back to back beautiful days here.

[Deweydog]

Polar vortex.

[snow_wizard]

The best match I can find when looking at a mix of 500mb pattern and surface pressure gradient is early October 1985.  In Landsburg that cold snap resulted in a 53-28 day.  For the outlying areas in the Puget Sound region I'm going for...

 

Coolest max temps = low to mid 50s

 

Coldest low temps = upper 20s to low 30s.

 

The NWS is certain to be too high.  To look at their forecast one would think it's impossible to go below 40 this time of year.  I have seen much less impressive patterns bring lows in the mid 30s here.  I still think it could go even lower than these numbers given the details of the upcoming pattern.  I wouldn't be shocked to see one night down to 35 here by midnight.

[MossMan]

Great gfs run.

Jesse great or Tim great?

[TacomaWaWx]

The best match I can find when looking at a mix of 500mb pattern and surface pressure gradient is early October 1985. In Landsburg that cold snap resulted in a 53-28 day. For the outlying areas in the Puget Sound region I'm going for...

 

Coolest max temps = low to mid 50s

 

Coldest low temps = upper 20s to low 30s.

 

The NWS is certain to be too high. To look at their forecast one would think it's impossible to go below 40 this time of year. I have seen much less impressive pattern bring low in the mid 30s here. I still think it could go even lower than these numbers given the details of the upcoming pattern. I wouldn't be shocked to see one night down to 35 here by midnight.

I’m thinking 36-39 degrees at my house on the coldest nights.

[snow_wizard]

Jesse great or Tim great?

 

Really incredible for this time of year.  Classic Arctic blast pattern if it were even late October.  Past history says a major cold wave before the end of the year is almost a given with this pattern this early.

[snow_wizard]

I’m thinking 36-39 degrees at my house on the coldest nights.

 

Very good guess I would think.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Still haven't had a low below 52F here, with this upcoming "Arctic Blast" that streak could end. The strait-effect stuff looks a bit watered down on the WRF, but there's a juicy setup in the Puget Sound:

 

[TacomaWaWx]

Jesse great or Tim great?

Mixed bag, I think there’s going to be a couple of Tim approved sunny days in there. Shows some rain on Thursday and Saturday this week obviously but dry after that. Rain returns at the end of next week.

[Jesse]

Mixed bag, I think there’s going to be a couple of Tim approved sunny days in there. Shows some rain on Thursday and Saturday this week obviously but dry after that. Rain returns at the end of next week.

I’m really looking forward to the crisp, sunny days later this weekend and early next week too.

 

Things start to get kind of confusing when you try to fit people’s preferences into neat little boxes.

[High Desert Mat?]

The local news here in central Oregon has rain and snow in the forecast for Saturday and then some snow showers on Sunday around with highs in the low 40’s. Hope winter isn’t blowing its load too early.

[Blizzard777]

67/50 day in Tacoma, back to back beautiful days here.

68/49 across the way