Money Posted April 9, 2014 Report Share Posted April 9, 2014 It's hard to tell, don't have the precip maps. HR 96 had a 996 L in S. KS/N. OK but it had another piece up towards GB then HR 120 had a 997 L in S. MI Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted April 9, 2014 Report Share Posted April 9, 2014 would this be any snow in Iowa?http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_111_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted April 9, 2014 Report Share Posted April 9, 2014 would this be any snow in Iowa?http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_111_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Central and Northern part of Iowa, yeah. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted April 9, 2014 Report Share Posted April 9, 2014 i see the zero 850 line but i dont know how accurate that is this time of year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 9, 2014 Author Report Share Posted April 9, 2014 12z Euro...less snow than GFS but almost identical placement of snow band. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted April 9, 2014 Report Share Posted April 9, 2014 I think that piece up near GB at HR 96 kept it from being really organized. Still an improvement over 0z. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 9, 2014 Report Share Posted April 9, 2014 Love the spring look of the EURO after early next week Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted April 9, 2014 Report Share Posted April 9, 2014 I can't believe we are still talking possibility of snow. It be amazing to break the record but that is fantasy right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted April 9, 2014 Report Share Posted April 9, 2014 Loving the opportunities for some much needed moisture out in the plains! Hoping this weekend works out! Saturday Night definitely has some great potential! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 9, 2014 Report Share Posted April 9, 2014 Bufkit for MKE 140414/0300Z 111 02024KT 30.1F SNOW 10:1| 3.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.341 10:1| 3.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.34 100| 0| 0140414/0600Z 114 03020KT 31.0F SNOW 11:1| 2.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.243 10:1| 6.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.58 100| 0| 0140414/0900Z 117 02022KT 29.9F SNOW 12:1| 5.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.423 11:1| 11.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.01 100| 0| 0140414/1200Z 120 01027KT 28.1F SNOW 13:1| 6.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.480 12:1| 17.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.49 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---140414/1500Z 123 01026KT 29.0F SNOW 6:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.195 11:1| 18.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.68 100| 0| 0140414/1800Z 126 35022KT 31.0F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 11:1| 18.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.70 100| 0| 0140414/2100Z 129 32011KT 32.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 11:1| 18.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.70 0| 0| 0140415/0000Z 132 29008KT 32.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 11:1| 18.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.70 0| 0| 0 Starts snowing at 3z Geos wrong again. Most of the snow falls from 3z to 12z Hey I'm not in Milwaukee. Maybe Racine is snow by 4am at the earliest. At 3z down here it is still too warm both at ground level and at 5000 feet. Anyways with warmer ground and the predicted 2" of rain before changeover the snow wouldn't stick right away anyway. DGZ is poor under the best precipitation rates with this system. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted April 9, 2014 Report Share Posted April 9, 2014 well im hoping this thing pans out and we get a good 4-6" here. would say there is a 30% chance of that happening though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted April 9, 2014 Report Share Posted April 9, 2014 i was looking at a website that the soil temps that most of the nation are above freezing so if we get snow that it won't stay too long. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 9, 2014 Report Share Posted April 9, 2014 i was looking at a website that the soil temps that most of the nation are above freezing so if we get snow that it won't stay too long. I was wondering that myself. Will very likely be in the 50-55° range by Sunday. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted April 9, 2014 Report Share Posted April 9, 2014 Grass has really been greening up nicely the past couple days. Get a nice soaking over the next couple days and it'll be looking really nice before long! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted April 9, 2014 Report Share Posted April 9, 2014 Snow in APRIL not sticking around for long? hmmm who woulda thought. Anyway... it is incredible out there today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 9, 2014 Author Report Share Posted April 9, 2014 This is some chilly air arriving next week pushing all the way down to the Gulf Coast... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 9, 2014 Author Report Share Posted April 9, 2014 After seeing 80's today in the Plains, a rude awakening is heading their way next Tuesday where a 50 degree temp drop is in the works. That should leave a mark. These wild temp swings in the Spring may be what is on the table for the Plains, Lakes/Midwest not so much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MKEstorm Posted April 9, 2014 Report Share Posted April 9, 2014 I don't trust these lows moving up a cold front. They usually don't become much of anything. I think MKE will see some flakes, but ATM I gotta say that a good storm looks questionable. However, it does look to be chilly next week! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 10, 2014 Report Share Posted April 10, 2014 Skilling is saying this will be a quick 2 day shot of cold air and then it rebounds back into the 50s by Wednesday. Best day of the year so far. High 62°. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MKEstorm Posted April 10, 2014 Report Share Posted April 10, 2014 Today marks the first day of an official high of 60 or above at MKE since November 17th. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted April 10, 2014 Report Share Posted April 10, 2014 Skilling is saying this will be a quick 2 day shot of cold air and then it rebounds back into the 50s by Wednesday. Best day of the year so far. High 63°.weather.com has got one day that is cold in my forecast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted April 10, 2014 Report Share Posted April 10, 2014 The models could show 12-18 for geos 24 hours before the event and he'll make something up about how it's not going to snow etc. It gets pretty annoying. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 10, 2014 Report Share Posted April 10, 2014 Skilling is saying this will be a quick 2 day shot of cold air and then it rebounds back into the 50s by Wednesday. Best day of the year so far. High 63°.Euro supports this GEOS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 10, 2014 Report Share Posted April 10, 2014 The models could show 12-18 for geos 24 hours before the event and he'll make something up about how it's not going to snow etc. It gets pretty annoying. I've seen some pretty wild busts before, but usually not within that time frame. That one system in late March was showing those extreme amounts in under 96 hours and I got 0.2"! 18z GFS is about the most I would expect.--- First 9 days of April holds a departure of -1.06° here. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted April 10, 2014 Report Share Posted April 10, 2014 I've seen some pretty wild busts before, but usually not within that time frame. That one system in late March was showing those extreme amounts in under 96 hours and I got 0.2"!i agree geos that models show it one day and the next day it is not because of tiny errors that i have learned by temps and wind. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 10, 2014 Report Share Posted April 10, 2014 The models could show 12-18 for geos 24 hours before the event and he'll make something up about how it's not going to snow etc. It gets pretty annoying.Lol you were hitting the last storm as a huge snow maker and that went away and nobody ripped you... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted April 10, 2014 Report Share Posted April 10, 2014 bear in mind that this storm is in very low confidence that this storm might not happen because by the pattern and by the warmer temps(also finding out that we will have severe weather with this too). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 10, 2014 Report Share Posted April 10, 2014 If the NAM went out a bit further it looks like the system center would pass towards the west of other models... 84 hours It should be a dynamic storm no doubt. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted April 10, 2014 Report Share Posted April 10, 2014 we are right in the warm sector by this sunday so this would fit for severe weather on sunday. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9jhwbg_conus.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted April 10, 2014 Report Share Posted April 10, 2014 Here's 18z GFS at hr 90 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_090_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif NAM wants to have that 2nd L like the euro had. 12z/18z GFS didn't have that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 10, 2014 Report Share Posted April 10, 2014 0z NAM pumps mid 70s out ahead of the front on Saturday PM and 60s that night. Some decent CAPE to work with this weekend. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted April 10, 2014 Report Share Posted April 10, 2014 GFS looks odd. The precip is directly over the center of the L. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted April 10, 2014 Report Share Posted April 10, 2014 0z GFS stays pretty weak until it gets into Indiana. Michigan gets hit pretty good tho Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 10, 2014 Author Report Share Posted April 10, 2014 00z GGEM starting to trend like the GFS/EURO.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted April 10, 2014 Report Share Posted April 10, 2014 Euro looks more organized at HR 96. About 6 MB stronger than 0z GFS at HR 96 and a bit NW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted April 10, 2014 Report Share Posted April 10, 2014 Euro looks more organized at HR 96. About 6 MB stronger than 0z GFS at HR 96 and a bit NW.And then?... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted April 10, 2014 Report Share Posted April 10, 2014 Got down to 41 this again, again well below guidance. Still looking to be another very enjoyable today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 10, 2014 Report Share Posted April 10, 2014 And then?... It showed 6"+ of snow from north central IL to Manitoulin Island basically. A bit high towards the south given surface readings between 32-35°. --- Very mild here over night. Above guidance, Low of 52°. Probably will be hitting 60° by 9am. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted April 10, 2014 Report Share Posted April 10, 2014 And then?... Was a big hit. L ended up in NW Indiana. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 10, 2014 Report Share Posted April 10, 2014 It's nice to see the models coming together on a nice rain event this weekend. The latest Euro has put a few inches of snow back in for eastern Iowa, but odds are we would only get a bit of short-lived white on the grass. It's also nice to see the Euro showing another warm pattern developing late in the period. I hope that sticks. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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