james1976 Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 GFS is about as good as I could hope for here in the Iowa City/Cedar Rapids area. Very similar to the Euro on both waves now.How are accumulations looking up this way? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 12z GFS both waves 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 Time to officially lock it in. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 27/12z GFS. Couple places in NMI (i see you gaylord) get 12+. Nada downstate lol. Just a couple weeks premature for this region to go big Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 12z GFS both waves PWx include sleet/mix like TT do you know?? for mby. Better but still screwed 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 Lock it in! For November I mean October that’s awesome! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 I saw that trying to ignore that lol! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 12z this morning 12z Friday morning. Coincidence?? 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 Riding the western edge. Let's NOT lock it in yet lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 Bleh to far east. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 27, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 12z GGEM...1st wave 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 12z Canadian - Halloween storm is gone, vanished. The western energy remains attached to the southern Canada energy and is never able to lose the strong positive tilt. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 27, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 12z Ukie still looks like a good hit and track... http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 12z Ukie still looks like a good hit and track... It's following the same trend, however. Upper energy is a bit weaker and more positively tilted. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 12z Ukie still looks like a good hit and track... http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif tough to tell, but looks like a 994mb SLP? Not terribly low. Is it a known bias of that model to not deepen storms? Cant remember seeing a UK map with a deep SLP 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 I'll call this a win for my area when it goes ova to a mix of rain and snow by Friday morning. I want the big stuff later in November. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 Bleh to far east.Still plenty of time for things to get better for yby. Tbh, I'd give it till Monday or Tuesday for models to really get a handle on this system. 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 27, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 tough to tell, but looks like a 994mb SLP? Not terribly low. Is it a known bias of that model to not deepen storms? Cant remember seeing a UK map with a deep SLP Yup, 994mb...the model is about as good as the Euro IMO. It does well. I’ve seen it show strong storms in the past. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 4 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 Still plenty of time for things to get better for yby. Tbh, I'd give it till Monday or Tuesday for models to really get a handle on this system.Definitely agree just hate seeing trends. I will note that wpc isn't bought into it yet. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 27, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 12z GEFS are east and weaker overall... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 Definitely agree just hate seeing trends. I will note that wpc isn't bought into it yet.Yep, Best part is when models don't agree at all w ea other. Can you imagine its Wintertime and all models point to a bliz for your area for days straight on and then, suddenly a day b4 the big storm, a shift occurs and models now show a different scenario. Now, that is a stab in the back.... 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 Euro still following the trend. Here is yesterday's 12z run versus today. You can see how much more attached the main energy is to the Canada energy. That keeps it positively tilted and more progressive. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 27, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 Euro still following the trend. Here is yesterday's 12z run versus today. You can see how much more attached the main energy is to the Canada energy. That keeps it positively tilted and more progressive. ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_fh96_trend.gifLet’s see what it shows next bc it could very well be better for phasing both streams. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 12z Euro not great. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 Meh across the board for 12z Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 Meh for 6+ in October?? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 I'll take 3-4" in October 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 My normal October is 3-4"....of leafs 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 One big thing that maybe overlooked is that the ground temperatures here in Iowa are still way too warm for snow to stick to the ground. In Cedar Rapids, the ground temperature is 46 degrees. That is way too warm for snow to stick to the ground. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 One big thing that maybe overlooked is that the ground temperatures here in Iowa are still way too warm for snow to stick to the ground. In Cedar Rapids, the ground temperature is 46 degrees. That is way too warm for snow to stick to the ground. If the rate is good enough snow can accumulate on anything. Besides, while roads may not be warm enough, it'll accumulate well on grass even if it's moderate at best. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 Meh across the board for 12zI think it looks great for this time of year haha 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 Any snow that falls in first wave will really cool down ground as well as sub freezing lows and highs around 40F. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 Anything less than 6” fails to excite me in any season. If it’s gonna snow out of season, gotta go big or go home. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 Anything less than 6” fails to excite me in any season. If it’s gonna snow out of season, gotta go big or go home.You live in the wrong area then. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 One big thing that maybe overlooked is that the ground temperatures here in Iowa are still way too warm for snow to stick to the ground. In Cedar Rapids, the ground temperature is 46 degrees. That is way too warm for snow to stick to the ground. While I'm not a fan of snow coming on warm ground, 11-29-11 proved what TOL_Weather was saying. Fast enough rates overcomes just about anything. The 8.5" that fell in about a 4 hr period had a solid 1" or so of slop on the bottom of as I cleared my driveway. It was literally melting from underneath. Nonetheless, we had a few cold days following and snow stuck around about a week? It was well worth it. I'd do it again if mby was in line for a storm like y'all are west of me. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 Meh. This is more and more turning into not that big of a deal. Maybe a couple of inches of snow and not a lot of wind. We had a couple of inches the middle of last October. We had snow on Halloween 2 years ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 I’m just not ready for snow yet is all. I get in winter mode after thanksgiving. So for me to really want an early season snow, it’s gotta be super notable. Same goes with snow after March 20th or so. 2 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 18z Nam has it in range. Looks like some snow but horrible track for Omaha. Definitely east :/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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