snowstorm83 Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 18z GFS is slightly more encouraging, but still struggles to bring snow up to I-80. At the end of the day though, its still October so any snow would be a bonus. And it would be really amazing to get missed to the south in October. 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 Def a bit stronger overall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 madtown stl seems good cor October! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 sorry sunday funday! 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 NWS Hastings says dry air in lower layers will cut totals to less than an inch with the 1st system. Second system looks more promising. General 2-4” in my area. Snow should be a dry type. They say still changes could occur but this is what they think at this moment. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 I would certainly take the GFS. It's about as good as we can expect if things go right. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 That was an interesting run to say the least. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 The GFS drops an incredible 14 inches of snow in Cedar Rapids. This is incredible. Yesterday the models went north, but today we are right back in the heavy snow. Like I said earlier, the ground is still way too warm for snow to stick to the ground. Looks like a lot of this snow falls in the afternoon hours which would really make it hard for the snow to stick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 The GFS drops an incredible 14 inches of snow in Cedar Rapids. This is incredible. Yesterday the models went north, but today we are right back in the heavy snow. Like I said earlier, the ground is still way too warm for snow to stick to the ground. Looks like a lot of this snow falls in the afternoon hours which would really make it hard for the snow to stick. Sorry, but this is not correct. If snow falls at a good intensity, it will begin to stick. Regardless of soil temps, 2m temps, etc. Snow fell here during the afternoon 2 weeks ago after a 60F day the day before and it began to accumulate on rooftops, grassy surfaces, elevated surfaces. We go through this every year. Snow....will...stick. Especially with a real shot of cold coinciding with the snow event. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 18z ICON with a more robust run this time. Really starting to line up with the GFS, 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 E IA into WI really looking like the jackzone on most models at least for now. DMX is thinking just an inch or less with first wave with the bigger deal wed-thu 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 18z ICON with a more robust run this time. Really starting to line up with the GFS,Looks impressive. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 sorry sunday funday!"best answer" wut 3 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 18z Euro 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 Not saying it will happen but I remember the euro doing this last year with a storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 18z ICON with a more robust run this time. Really starting to line up with the GFS, Chucks me a bone..Go ICON! Correctly shows a snowless WMI shoreline due to warm lake shadow as well. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 I’m excited for the time change next week and these model runs to be an hour earlier. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 Chucks me a bone..Go ICON! Correctly shows a snowless WMI shoreline due to warm lake shadow as well. I didn't notice the WMI shoreline, does that ever happen? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 Wonder how much rain to start off with.... Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 I didn't notice the WMI shoreline, does that ever happen? For a pre-season set-up like this it sure does because the lake is like a giant bat tub full of warm (picture steaming) water. With a west wind, it will be too warm for the snow showers until half a county inland from the shoreline. Later in winter as the lake cools down and especially if a nice ice-pack builds out from shore, the LES will fall right at the coast and not carry as far inland. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 Not that it really makes too much of a difference, but the NAM really isn’t too impressive for tomorrow night around here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 Cut grass today, fertilizing tomorrow and maybe shoveling my deck on Tuesday. 1 Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 NAM really not good for anyone on here for system 1 or 2. Keeps almost all the meaningful snow even west of me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 00z NAM looks like the Canadian on Halloween... too positively tilted, no storm. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 Chucks me a bone..Go ICON! Correctly shows a snowless WMI shoreline due to warm lake shadow as well. You may get a dusting. I'd say its a great way to end October. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 The nam this far out I wouldn’t put to much stock into it 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 NAM really not good for anyone on here for system 1 or 2. Keeps almost all the meaningful snow even west of me.Dry slots us hard for that first system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 You may get a dusting. I'd say its a great way to end October. Yep. Had 0.5" in 2013, a similar amt in 2009. On 10/12, 2006 we got that freaky early snow but I don't think it was more than an inch. A glaze at Halloween 2014. Just tough to get much in Oct. November's a whole different story. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 Yep. Had 0.5" in 2013, a similar amt in 2009. On 10/12, 2006 we got that freaky early snow but I don't think it was more than an inch. A glaze at Halloween 2014. Just tough to get much in Oct. November's a whole different story. It wont be too long till we start getting some good snows here. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 00z ICON following the trend, weaker and east. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 Gfs looks lousy This sure turned into a dud Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 N. MO/SE IA end up doing decent (4-7) but meh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 (insert model here) weaker and east. The southern Canada energy keeps getting more robust on all the models and it's leading to the decline of the Halloween storm. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 GFS producing a historic snowfall for KC for Oct 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 Haha my parents are going to get clobbered. I lose the bet but my Dad gets to shovel. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 Still don’t understand why some people use 10:1 ratio maps when posting snowfall maps. Especially in October 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 Still don’t understand why some people use 10:1 ratio maps when posting snowfall maps. Especially in OctoberHere ya go 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 Yeah, have to remember if anyone gets half of what the GFS has, they should be thrilled. Someone will get 6 inches between the two. Should be happy for whoever gets it! It's October people! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 Here ya goWasn’t trying to call you out or anything just doesn’t make sense to use 10:1 ratios in October when that would rarely occur 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 Wasn’t trying to call you out or anything just doesn’t make sense to use 10:1 ratios in October when that would rarely occurFor my area the difference was only about an inch or so. I figure the ratio for KC will average around 8:1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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