10/29-10/31 Halloween Winter Storm

[james1976]

GFS is about as good as I could hope for here in the Iowa City/Cedar Rapids area. Very similar to the Euro on both waves now.

How are accumulations looking up this way?

[bud2380]

[Clinton]

12z GFS both waves

[East Dubzz]

Time to officially lock it in.

[jaster220]

27/12z GFS. Couple places in NMI (i see you gaylord) get 12+. Nada downstate lol. Just a couple weeks premature for this region to go big

 

[jaster220]

12z GFS both waves

 

PWx include sleet/mix like TT do you know??

 

for mby. Better but still screwed 

[GDR]

Lock it in! For November I mean October that’s awesome!

[Clinton]

I saw that trying to ignore that lol!

[jaster220]

12z this morning

 

 

12z Friday morning. Coincidence??

 

[james1976]

Riding the western edge. Let's NOT lock it in yet lol

[Stormhunter87]

Bleh to far east.

[Tom]

12z GGEM...1st wave

 

[Hawkeye]

12z Canadian -  Halloween storm is gone, vanished.  The western energy remains attached to the southern Canada energy and is never able to lose the strong positive tilt.

[Tom]

12z Ukie still looks like a good hit and track...

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif

[Hawkeye]

12z Ukie still looks like a good hit and track...

 

It's following the same trend, however.  Upper energy is a bit weaker and more positively tilted.

[jaster220]

12z Ukie still looks like a good hit and track...

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif

 

tough to tell, but looks like a 994mb SLP? Not terribly low. Is it a known bias of that model to not deepen storms? Cant remember seeing a UK map with a deep SLP 

[Niko]

I'll call this a win for my area when it goes ova to a mix of rain and snow by Friday morning. I want the big stuff later in November.

[Niko]

Bleh to far east.

Still plenty of time for things to get better for yby. Tbh, I'd give it till Monday or Tuesday for models to really get a handle on this system.

[Tom]

tough to tell, but looks like a 994mb SLP? Not terribly low. Is it a known bias of that model to not deepen storms? Cant remember seeing a UK map with a deep SLP

Yup, 994mb...the model is about as good as the Euro IMO. It does well. I’ve seen it show strong storms in the past.

[Niko]

[Stormhunter87]

Still plenty of time for things to get better for yby. Tbh, I'd give it till Monday or Tuesday for models to really get a handle on this system.

Definitely agree just hate seeing trends. I will note that wpc isn't bought into it yet.

[Tom]

12z GEFS are east and weaker overall...

[Niko]

Definitely agree just hate seeing trends. I will note that wpc isn't bought into it yet.

Yep, Best part is when models don't agree at all w ea other. Can you imagine its Wintertime and all models point to a bliz for your area for days straight on and then, suddenly a day b4 the big storm, a shift occurs and models now show a different scenario. Now, that is a stab in the back....

[Hawkeye]

Euro still following the trend.  Here is yesterday's 12z run versus today.  You can see how much more attached the main energy is to the Canada energy.  That keeps it positively tilted and more progressive.

 

[Tom]

Euro still following the trend. Here is yesterday's 12z run versus today. You can see how much more attached the main energy is to the Canada energy. That keeps it positively tilted and more progressive.

 

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_fh96_trend.gif

Let’s see what it shows next bc it could very well be better for phasing both streams.

[Clinton]

12z Euro not great.

[hlcater]

Meh across the board for 12z

[GDR]

Meh for 6+ in October??

[james1976]

I'll take 3-4" in October

[jaster220]

My normal October is 3-4"....of leafs

[Iowawx]

One big thing that maybe overlooked is that the ground temperatures here in Iowa are still way too warm for snow to stick to the ground. In Cedar Rapids, the ground temperature is 46 degrees. That is way too warm for snow to stick to the ground. 

 

 

[Minny_Weather]

One big thing that maybe overlooked is that the ground temperatures here in Iowa are still way too warm for snow to stick to the ground. In Cedar Rapids, the ground temperature is 46 degrees. That is way too warm for snow to stick to the ground. 

If the rate is good enough snow can accumulate on anything. Besides, while roads may not be warm enough, it'll accumulate well on grass even if it's moderate at best.

[East Dubzz]

Meh across the board for 12z

I think it looks great for this time of year haha

[Grizzcoat]

Any snow that falls in first wave will really cool down ground as well as sub freezing lows and highs around 40F.

[hlcater]

Anything less than 6” fails to excite me in any season. If it’s gonna snow out of season, gotta go big or go home.

[East Dubzz]

Anything less than 6” fails to excite me in any season. If it’s gonna snow out of season, gotta go big or go home.

You live in the wrong area then.

[jaster220]

One big thing that maybe overlooked is that the ground temperatures here in Iowa are still way too warm for snow to stick to the ground. In Cedar Rapids, the ground temperature is 46 degrees. That is way too warm for snow to stick to the ground. 

 

While I'm not a fan of snow coming on warm ground, 11-29-11 proved what TOL_Weather was saying. Fast enough rates overcomes just about anything. The 8.5" that fell in about a 4 hr period had a solid 1" or so of slop on the bottom of as I cleared my driveway. It was literally melting from underneath. Nonetheless, we had a few cold days following and snow stuck around about a week? It was well worth it. I'd do it again if mby was in line for a storm like y'all are west of me. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

Meh. This is more and more turning into not that big of a deal. Maybe a couple of inches of snow and not a lot of wind. We had a couple of inches the middle of last October. We had snow on Halloween 2 years ago.

[hlcater]

I’m just not ready for snow yet is all. I get in winter mode after thanksgiving. So for me to really want an early season snow, it’s gotta be super notable. Same goes with snow after March 20th or so.

[Stormhunter87]

18z Nam has it in range. Looks like some snow but horrible track for Omaha. Definitely east :/