November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[TacomaWaWx]

Going to be pretty windy at times in the cascade gaps it looks like. Lots of dry offshore winds.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Looking like a pretty decent snowstorm for central Oregon Tuesday to Wednesday. The upslope and wraparound looks to be pretty heavy.

 

I haven't looked at models yet this morning.  A notch or two north?

[TT-SEA]

GFS following the ECMWF lead and trending way south with the system that was going to bring the ice event to Portland.

 

00Z run:

 

 

12Z run:

 

[TacomaWaWx]

Can’t believe how dry we’ve been and how dry it will continue to be it looks like.

[High Desert Mat?]

GFS following the ECMWF lead and trending way south with the system that was going to bring the ice event to Portland.

 

00Z run:

 

 

12Z run:

 

Right Tim. The system on Tuesday that’ll head through southern Oregon was once progged to go through San Francisco. So there’s that.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GEM brings the low in even further north near Cape Blanco! Hmmm!

 

[Guest CulverJosh]

Hey Mat.  How often do they underestimate snow totals over here?

[TT-SEA]

Right Tim. The system on Tuesday that’ll head through southern Oregon was once progged to go through San Francisco. So there’s that.

 

 

True... but that is a totally different set up.   The Tuesday system is a bombing low that is racing inland along the leading edge of a deep trough moving down from the north.   Those typically trend north as the time approaches.

 

There is no low coming inland at all next weekend.   Its just moisture that could come north temporarily between the offshore ULL and the inland ULL.     Split flow tends to make those scenarios look less impressive as the time approaches.

[Deweydog]

Wet out this morning. Me thinks it rained overnight!

[HighlandExperience]

12z GEM brings the low in even further north near Cape Blanco! Hmmm!

 

We need it right over the columbia

[High Desert Mat?]

Hey Mat. How often do they underestimate snow totals over here?

Almost every snowstorm. Local news has it at 4-7”. We shall see. If it comes too much north it will draw us a south wind and we’ll be in the cusp.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS looks like the EPS in the long range... a trough in the West but split.   Big change from the 00Z run.

 

 

[Jbolin]

Wet out this morning. Me thinks it rained overnight!

Such an astute observation 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS shows the PNA tanks again into December with a negative EPO continuing. Looks promising for renewed blocking/cold pattern.

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

It makes me shiver just looking at those straight northerly gradients over WA. This is going to be solidly cold for us without a doubt.

We're going to get good cold Fraser and Gorge outflow this week.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Ahhhh..... Wintertime. Time to return to the forums for a few more months.

 

LR looks like it could contain some significant GOA blocking (those poor Alaskans, geez...), leading to the potential for something cool somewhere down the line. Hopefully we'll look back at these posts and view them as prophetic, not crapshoots.

Welcome back. Hope your arrival brings cold and snowy weather!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

971mb near Cape Blanco! The WRF is going to be insane with the downslope gradient

 

Bombing out as it comes onshore!

[TT-SEA]

Bombing out as it comes onshore!

 

 

The stronger low has actually resulted in less precip up here on Tuesday with stronger offshore flow.

[Perturbed Member]

I expect that low to keep trending north a bit more. I think PDX should be within range of this thing but we just don't have much cold air to work with at that time. Looks like a 1500ft or so snow level unless you can get into the higher precip rates and get a bit more of an isothermal profile.

[High Desert Mat?]

The stronger low has actually resulted in less precip up here on Tuesday with stronger offshore flow.

Good lord.

[TacomaWaWx]

Could be a little interesting today in some spots.

[TT-SEA]

Good lord.

It has... earlier runs more precip up here that day with much weaker offshore flow.

[TT-SEA]

Could be a little interesting today in some spots.

 

Mixed signals... the HRRR shows a strong c-zone developing later this afternoon...

 

 

But the ECMWF does not show that...

 

[Weiner Warrior]

We are screwed. Winter over.

[TT-SEA]

We are screwed. Winter over.

Feels like a situation where the hammer could drop eventually. It's just not in sight yet.

[Jbolin]

Feels like a situation where the hammer could drop eventually. It's just not in sight yet.

Circa Feb 2019

[Jesse]

Hammers are hard to come by when nature is saying it's going to he a split flow winter.

 

Can be a tough line to walk between trolling and pandering.

[TT-SEA]

Circa Feb 2019

 

 

Not yet... that was a situation where there was massive cold to the east that retrograded.    That was much less splitty than what we have now.

[Jbolin]

Not yet... that was a situation where there was massive cold to the east that retrograded.    That was much less splitty than what we have now.

oh, f*****-a

[TT-SEA]

Hammers are hard to come by when nature is saying it's going to he a split flow winter.

 

Can be a tough line to walk between trolling and pandering.

 

Nature is in charge.    Cheerleading is meaningless.

 

Blocking seems like a good bet for this winter.   Its definitely in the form of split flow now and been for weeks... but that can easily change.   

[TT-SEA]

New 12Z ECMWF not showing a c-zone over the Seattle area this afternoon...

 

[FroYoBro]

Fog is really starting to build in here. Should keep it pretty cool today. 

 

I'm really going to enjoy the weather this week. 

[MossMan]

.14” so far today, 3.41” on the month. Currently 46 with rays of sunshine.

[Phil]

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Lol. #TheCFSsucks

 

Seriously. Whatever the CFS projects beyond 20 days, expect the exact opposite.

[Phil]

Can’t believe how dry we’ve been and how dry it will continue to be it looks like.

I can believe it..given the forced boundary conditions and preconditioned states this dry regime was to be seen a mile away.

 

There is a chance at some actual precipitation during the second and/or third week of December before everything shuts off again, but if it happens, does it manifest as more of a STJ/suppression regime that focuses into CA?

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF a little farther north... and offshore flow in charge up here by Tuesday.

 

[Phil]

Not yet... that was a situation where there was massive cold to the east that retrograded. That was much less splitty than what we have now.

Eh..that was a heavy STJ/split flow regime initially, which got torpedoed by the SSW/breaker train. Tropical forcing was still in phase 8/1 (niño-like) when that whole thing went down.

[TT-SEA]

Fairly sunny here this morning.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

12z EURO with the low coming onshore Tuesday evening.

 

[TacomaWaWx]

I can believe it..given the forced boundary conditions and preconditioned states this dry regime was to be seen a mile away.

 

There is a chance at some actual precipitation during the second and/or third week of December before everything shuts off again, but if it happens, does it manifest as more of a STJ/suppression regime that focuses into CA?

I think we’ve mostly been expecting drier than normal but this is pretty d*mn dry. Could end up being drier than 13-14 at this rate. That year had a lot of the rainfall focused into CA right or was it dry down that way as well? Either way I’m expecting things to get wet this spring.