November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Phil]

I think we’ve mostly been expecting drier than normal but this is pretty d*mn dry. Could end up being drier than 13-14 at this rate. That year had a lot of the rainfall focused into CA right or was it dry down that way as well? Either way I’m expecting things to get wet this spring.

That was dry everywhere IIRC..not much STJ and the northern jet was well up into the Aleutians/AK thanks to a persistent GOA/EPO ridge.

[TT-SEA]

Great day for shopping and a meaningless Apple Cup... 

 

 

 

I remember a few days ago when it looked like it would be very wet that day on the ECMWF.     I told my sons that it was not looking good and they might be sitting in sideways rain.  

[GHweatherChris]

Great day for shopping and a meaningless Apple Cup...

 

 

 

I remember a few days ago when it looked it would be very wet that day on the ECMWF. I told my sons that it was not looking good and they might be sitting in sideways rain.

Bragging right game this year, wish it was for more.

[TacomaWaWx]

Fairly sunny here this morning.

nice morning here as well!

[TacomaWaWx]

That was dry everywhere IIRC..not much STJ and the northern jet was well up into the Aleutians/AK thanks to a persistent GOA/EPO ridge.

We will see how this one plays out, wouldn’t surprise me if the energy was mostly focused in northern CA.

[Jesse]

This Euro run looks a little more interesting over the weekend.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF brings back the moisture for next Sunday.

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The stronger low has actually resulted in less precip up here on Tuesday with stronger offshore flow.

I'm not really expecting much precip down here but the main story will be the cold strong offshore flow. Looking forward to that on Thanksgiving.

[TT-SEA]

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Some snow, nice!

[Guest CulverJosh]

If Tim played basketball he would do a lot of cherry-picking.

[Blizzard777]

.11 precipitation brings me up to 1.51 for the month 

[TT-SEA]

If Tim played basketball he would do a lot of cherry-picking.

 

 

I had to cherry pick that one map that showed snow.  

[Omegaraptor]

If that 12z GFS long range verifies, Sacramento might actually just end up wetter than Portland for calendar year 2019.

 

I don’t think that’s ever happened.

[TT-SEA]

And side note... cherry picking cold maps from the GFS at 384 hours or maps from the CFS at 3 weeks out is perfectly fine.   

 

But showing maps for the next week... like the storm Tuesday, a nice Black Friday, and maybe some snow next Sunday is called out.  

[Phil]

Long range Euro completely flipped..revives the -NAO and has a much more interesting pattern.

[Gradient Keeper]

Ohhhhh

 

[Gradient Keeper]

OMG EURO has a OTH-GEG something like -32mb. Major damaging downslope/east wind storm coming for PDX metro, Foothills.

[TacomaWaWx]

Wow definitely more interesting.

[High Desert Mat?]

Love where the euro is going at the end.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

If that 12z GFS long range verifies, Sacramento might actually just end up wetter than Portland for calendar year 2019.

 

I don’t think that’s ever happened.

What are the YTD totals?

[TacomaWaWx]

OMG EURO has a OTH-GEG something like -32mb. Major damaging downslope/east wind storm coming for PDX metro, Foothills.

Definitely going to be some strong gap winds in the cascades over the next week or so at times.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Requiem]

OMG EURO has a OTH-GEG something like -32mb. Major damaging downslope/east wind storm coming for PDX metro, Foothills.

For what day? The last time we had a gradient like that (anything close to that) was November 2014.

[MossMan]

Have I mentioned how much I love my area...during marginal snow level situations I am in a good spot at around 550’ but if the SL is just above that all I need to to is walk up to my neighbors property and enjoy sticking snow at 700’. Walked up there this morning to get an exact elevation. Last March after an overnight big snow the temps warmed a bit and snow was melting off of the trees with a rain/snow falling at my house, walked up to my neighbors to grab their tractor to plow out my driveway and it was still solidly below freezing with all snow falling and nothing coming off of the trees. Love this place!!

[Guest CulverJosh]

Just awesome.

[TT-SEA]

A normal winter front at the very end of the ECMWF with lowland rain and mountain snow.    That would be nice for skiers.

[Omegaraptor]

What are the YTD totals?

 

SAC - 19.49"

HIO - 20.97"

PDX - 21.98"

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Up to 48F after a midnight low of 30F. Nice and damp out there.

[Timmy]

A normal winter front at the very end of the ECMWF with lowland rain and mountain snow. That would be nice for skiers.

next level trolling.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Since Rob isnt here. Anyone have a wv loop showing tomorrow nights low?

[Gradient Keeper]

For what day? The last time we had a gradient like that (anything close to that) was November 2014.

I've never seen OTH-GEG over -25mb. This would be Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning.

[TT-SEA]

next level trolling.

 

I would love to see some mountain snow.   So yeah... not trolling.   

 

Not everything has to be about massive arctic outbreaks and lowland snow.  

[MossMan]

I would love to see some mountain snow. So yeah... not trolling.

 

Not everything has to be about massive arctic outbreaks and lowland snow.

Actually...

[Requiem]

I've never seen OTH-GEG over -25mb. This would be Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning.

 

I'm quite impressed. Surely it wasn't showing that last run, was it?

[TT-SEA]

I have a large investment in the ski season and two boys eager to go skiing. Dry weather is nice... but also need a few juicy fronts at this point.

[Jesse]

It’s hip to be.

[TacomaWaWx]

I'm quite impressed. Surely it wasn't showing that last run, was it?

lol yeah I don’t think so. We will see if this euro run is the beginning of a trend of better runs or just one good run. Hopefully the former not the latter. Wonder what the Gradients will be in the Fraser River valley and the stampede gap.

[TT-SEA]

People are on your case because this has been the same shtick from you for over a decade. Whether it’s arguing with someone about snow in Seattle because a webcam in Tukwilla shows rain, arguing about how we are not in a drought, until we are, arguing that the Seahawks are bad, complaining that people sharing cold maps are unrealistic, and then whipping out the oft used cloud maps to show how that one frame showing snow isn’t going to happen.

 

It’s just tiring.

 

I don't participate in cheerleading... that is for sure.   I think its silly.   But I also post lots of maps when things really get good.  

[GHweatherChris]

People are on your case because this has been the same shtick from you for over a decade. Whether it’s arguing with someone about snow in Seattle because a webcam in Tukwilla shows rain, arguing about how we are not in a drought, until we are, arguing that the Seahawks are bad, complaining that people sharing cold maps are unrealistic, and then whipping out the oft used cloud maps to show how that one frame showing snow isn’t going to happen.

 

It’s just tiring.

Spot on.