November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[TT-SEA]

Sounds boring

 

Pleasant for sure.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

[TT-SEA]

Around .25 at SEA over the next 10 days... much of which is going to fall tonight.  

 

Slightly more in Portland.

 

The crazy dry weather is the real story.  

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Around .25 at SEA over the next 10 days... much of which is going to fall tonight.  

 

Slightly more in Portland.

 

The crazy dry weather is the real story.  

Agree 1000%

[Phil]

PDX isn’t out of the woods with that storm..just need small changes upstream and this thing is coming in just 50 miles south as a tight 980mb ball of action, detached from the 500mb vort. I think it’s a more fickle situation than it looks.

[Phil]

Sounds boring

Does anyone really prefer warm rain to cold, dry, continental bliss?

[TT-SEA]

Does anyone really prefer warm rain to cold, dry, continental bliss?

 

 

Skiers probably at least want cold rain and mountain snow right now rather than 10 more days of dry weather.

[TT-SEA]

This is not going to open the ski season in WA.    And there is basically nothing after Monday.

 

[seattleweatherguy]

Windy hete

[Cloud]

Skiers probably at least want cold rain and mountain snow right now rather than 10 more days of dry weather.

Just gonna leave this here. Courtesy of KIRO7.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

37F and clear. Nice night. Pretty stars out.

[HighlandExperience]

This is not going to open the ski season in WA. And there is basically nothing after Monday.

 

Move all that moisture 150 miles north

[MossMan]

Rain has begun here after a very blustery evening. Currently 48 degree.

[Cloud]

Overcast skies and wind really keep the temps up tonight. Been consistently staying in the low 50s most of the day. Temps actually gone up few degrees last couple hours. Currently 52 and windy. Could be looking at midnight high for a lot of places.

[GHweatherChris]

I'm just blown away by the way the models continue to trend notably colder with the situation next week and the stuff further out. The next two weeks could be something to write home about.

There is nothing to write home about unless there is snow involved.

[GHweatherChris]

Overcast skies and wind really keep the temps up tonight. Been consistently staying in the low 50s most of the day. Temps actually gone up few degrees last couple hours. Currently 52 and windy. Could be looking at midnight high for a lot of places.

Southerly flow.

[snow_wizard]

Day 10 ECMWF shows one of the most amazing surface highs I can remember over the GOA at day 10 along with the massive 500mb block.  That gives us a pretty good chance of the thing evolving like we want it to.  The players are on the table at day 10 for a top tier or least second tier event by day 12..

[MossMan]

Southerly flow.

Correction: Boring Southerly Flow.

[Cloud]

Southerly flow.

Aka the snow killer. I’m just glad we’re no where close to the white stuff otherwise ppl on this forum would go insane.

[snow_wizard]

There is nothing to write home about unless there is snow involved.

 

The snow for us will probably be from the second block / reload...assuming it develops.  We've had just cold before that is very noteworthy, but that won't be the case this coming week of course.  I'm lucky in that I like cold period.

[snow_wizard]

Aka the snow killer. I’m just glad we’re no where close to the white stuff otherwise ppl on this forum would go insane.

 

We almost always get a brief warm spike before a cold snap.

[GHweatherChris]

The snow for us will probably be from the second block / reload...assuming it develops. We've had just cold before that is very noteworthy, but that won't be the case this coming week of course. I'm lucky in that I like cold period.

I like snow period.

[Perturbed Member]

06z ICON, looks to have trended north with that low.

 

[Jesse]

There is nothing to write home about unless there is snow involved.

You must not write home very often.

[MikeInEverett]

That's a big block.

 

[Meatyorologist]

Ahhhh..... Wintertime. Time to return to the forums for a few more months. 

 

LR looks like it could contain some significant GOA blocking (those poor Alaskans, geez...), leading to the potential for something cool somewhere down the line. Hopefully we'll look back at these posts and view them as prophetic, not crapshoots.

[Farmboy]

Ahhhh..... Wintertime. Time to return to the forums for a few more months.

 

LR looks like it could contain some significant GOA blocking (those poor Alaskans, geez...), leading to the potential for something cool somewhere down the line. Hopefully we'll look back at these posts and view them as prophetic, not crapshoots.

That's a meaty wishcast there, hopefully it pans out...

[catnip]

[Jbolin]

Another good write-up from Kovacik at NWS Seattle. I look forward to reading his thoughts once (if) things get serious in the snow department, hopefully soon.

 

He mentions the possibility of a CZ Monday night and that leading to a very localized, small band of heavy snow if the stars align. That's one thing I'll miss about Carnation - having ready access to the CZ and the many surprises that can lead to. Don't have that here in Maple Valley, unfortunately.

 

As to the 06z GFS, still looks like a southern OR special for that storm Tuesday night and again with the possible ice storm around the 1st, maybe reaching up near Portland. Cold and dry for the Seattle area. Long range gets interesting though with a massive block developing in the GOA around D12. Some cold air comes down through BC and a potent little low develops off the coast, leading to a mixed bag of precip for WA. 500mb pattern is still a little too progressive causing the bulk of the cold air to slide east and the ridge to scoot over us but I think that period is going to be the one to watch very closely after this week. Then at H384, you can see heights building again over the GOA.

 

Overall, the theme of GOA blocking continues into the LR at this time. I could see little bouts of chilly weather with possible frozen precip occurring a couple times over the next 2 weeks with brief warmups in between as the ridge continuously moves over us and then resets. Hopefully the pattern will eventually lock into place with a ridge in the sweet spot and a massive trough smackdab over the PNW in mid-December.

Kovacik is not a man

[Kayla]

[TacomaWaWx]

We only picked up 0.04” of rain last night and this morning. 1.69” for November now. Currently 44, was pretty breezy last night but much calmer this morning.

[Gradient Keeper]

Hmmmm!

 

[TacomaWaWx]

I really like the latest trends regarding the GOA block on the gfs and euro. Both models look similar in the mid range (day 10) with the block over the Aleutian Islands.

[Esquimalt]

The low is a notch north!

[Gradient Keeper]

971mb near Cape Blanco! The WRF is going to be insane with the downslope gradient

 

[TacomaWaWx]

Things are looking pretty good for a southern Oregon snow event.

[TT-SEA]

00Z EPS agreed very with the operational run at day 10:

 

 

 

But split flow dominants on the EPS in the 10-15 day period:

 

 

 

 

And still unusually dry over the next 15 days of course...

 

[El_Nina]

00Z EPS agreed very with the operational run at day 10:

 

 

 

But split flow dominants on the EPS in the 10-15 day period:

 

 

 

 

And still unusually dry over the next 15 days of course...

 

There is no God.

[TT-SEA]

Another good write-up from Kovacik at NWS Seattle. I look forward to reading her thoughts once (if) things get serious in the snow department, hopefully soon.

 

She mentions the possibility of a CZ Monday night and that leading to a very localized, small band of heavy snow if the stars align. That's one thing I'll miss about Carnation - having ready access to the CZ and the many surprises that can lead to. Don't have that here in Maple Valley, unfortunately.

 

 

 

 

You can definitely get the c-zone down there.    

 

I am not sure the Monday evening activity will bring lowland snow... but it appears that Maple Valley and Covington are more in line than my area.   Per the ECMWF... it looks like one of those double c-zones with one down south and one up north.    Remember that the flow will turn offshore later on Monday night... so this not a typical c-zone in screaming onshore flow.

 

[High Desert Mat?]

Looking like a pretty decent snowstorm for central Oregon Tuesday to Wednesday. The upslope and wraparound looks to be pretty heavy.