November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Front Ranger]

Our chances for a true 1985 redux died with the death trifecta of Wilford Brimley, Hume Cronyn and Ron Howard.

RIP Michael J. Fox.

[BLI snowman]

Our chances for a true 1985 redux died with the death trifecta of Wilford Brimley, Hume Cronyn and Ron Howard.

 

 

Wilford is still going too, surprisingly. Still looks the same, I think.

[TT-SEA]

It's not good or evil, it's just opinion. Some people enjoy a cold inversion. You're not going to guilt them out of it by pointing to smog, just like they aren't going to guilt you out of enjoying dry, warm weather by pointing to forest fires.

 

I don't have the foggiest idea what you're trying to prove at this point.

 

Clever!

 

No opinions will ever be changed.  That is also a given.    Just pointing out the irony. 

 

And side note...you will find me hoping for rain when its smoky.    I don't like smoky haze and heat... its disgusting.     Even if its warmer than normal.   Temperature departures are pretty irrelevant to me.   

[Deweydog]

RIP Michael J. Fox.

Throw Ervin “Magic” Johnson in there and it’s been a rough 2019.

[TT-SEA]

RIP Michael J. Fox.

 

 

I went straight to Google to see if I missed something.    Thankfully no.  

[Gradient Keeper]

00z WRF shows east winds develop by morning and increase tomorrow into Thursday. Blue skies will return to PDX/Vancouver metro

[Deweydog]

I remember November 2003 being particularly foggy...

[Front Ranger]

I went straight to Google to see if I missed something. Thankfully no.

That man OWNED 1985.

[Front Ranger]

Clever!

 

No opinions will ever be changed. That is also a given. Just pointing out the irony.

 

And side note...you will find me hoping for rain when its smoky. I don't like smoky haze and heat... its disgusting. Even if its warmer than normal. Temperature departures are pretty irrelevant to me.

All bad things come from ridging.

[Deweydog]

Considering the derogatory term for a girl that likes to hang out with homosexual males, does that make fog fans “fog hogs?”

[TT-SEA]

All bad things come from ridging.

 

 

So it seems.   Except smoggy inversions!  

[Jesse]

All bad things come from ridging.

I would love nothing more than for a rainy, stormy pattern to show up on the models right now. That is much more likely to bring positive departures this time of year than ridging is.

[Phil]

Ridges are disgusting and evil, unless they’re over Greenland or Alaska...then they’re alright.

[TT-SEA]

Ridges are disgusting and evil, unless they’re over Greenland or Alaska...then they’re alright.

 

 

Ridge over us today... produced a lovely, crisp 54-degree day here.   Even you would say it was nice.     

 

 

[Jesse]

Euro doesn't seem as close with the brush of cold air early next week as the 00Z GFS was.

[Deweydog]

I hate weather.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

At least this is shaping up to be something historic in terms of lengthy dry weather during what’s typically the wettest time of year.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Just got the mail... it's been sunny for 10 days straight and we have had no fog at all and yet there are wet spots in the road which outline areas that are shaded. This marks the shade from the mailboxes. This has just started happening since the gradients went flat the last couple days.... but is common during dry spells from Nov - Jan unless its windy.   Need the east wind to return!

 

 

Nevermind that, look at all the dead/dying grass. That place is becoming a droughtfest.

[TT-SEA]

Nevermind that, look at all the dead/dying grass. That place is becoming a droughtfest.

 

Definitely heading into dormancy earlier than usual this year... consistently chilly nights.

 

Saw a Facebook memory pop today from 11/5/2011 and it was much greener and the trees had way more leaves than today.

[ShawniganLake]

Clouds cleared off here tonight. I had to get gas on my way home. It felt cold and the pump was slow so I sat in the truck while it was filling.

[TT-SEA]

Clouds cleared off here tonight. I had to get gas on my way home. It felt cold and the pump was slow so I sat in the truck while it was filling.

You chose to be comfortable over being cold? Strange.

[snow_wizard]

Definitely heading into dormancy earlier than usual this year... consistently chilly nights.

 

Saw a Facebook memory pop today from 11/5/2011 and it was much greener and the trees had way more leaves than today.

 

No doubt the trees are bare very early this year.  That is especially true of the cottonwoods.  Probably 3 weeks early on those.

[Jesse]

Clouds cleared off here tonight. I had to get gas on my way home. It felt cold and the pump was slow so I sat in the truck while it was filling.

I decided to sleep inside tonight.

[snow_wizard]

Clouds cleared off here tonight. I had to get gas on my way home. It felt cold and the pump was slow so I sat in the truck while it was filling.

 

Clear and already down to 35 here.  We have a bit of a NE gradient tonight so the dew points should drop a bit and allow it to get colder than the last couple of nights.

[TT-SEA]

No doubt the trees are bare very early this year. That is especially true of the cottonwoods. Probably 3 weeks early on those.

Yeah... cottonwoods were noticeably early.

 

I think that had to due with the dry March... Shawnigan posted something about trees giving up early in the fall after a dry early spring when the leaves are just forming.

 

Our cottonwoods were turning during the summer and it was certainly not too dry then.

[snow_wizard]

At least this is shaping up to be something historic in terms of lengthy dry weather during what’s typically the wettest time of year.

 

No doubt we are in a pretty abnormal regime this season.  The door should be open for some big surprises.

[TT-SEA]

Clear and already down to 35 here. We have a bit of a NE gradient tonight so the dew points should drop a bit and allow it to get colder than the last couple of nights.

Cloudy here now... first time in days. Clouds are moving south.

[Jesse]

Clear and already down to 35 here. We have a bit of a NE gradient tonight so the dew points should drop a bit and allow it to get colder than the last couple of nights.

Now it’s your turn to be way colder. We are socked in with fog and low clouds and in the low 40s.

[ShawniganLake]

I decided to sleep inside tonight.

Wise decision.

[snow_wizard]

Now it’s your turn to be way colder. We are socked in with fog and low clouds and in the low 40s.

 

SEA has really been pathetic this month.  I expect they will continue to be pretty lame in terms of getting cold anomalies unless the inversion becomes really serious.  IMBY it has been solidly chilly.

[snow_wizard]

One thing I've always wanted to see is a winter with 100 minimums of 32 or below.  It's very difficult to achieve in the Western Lowlands, but it does happen.  That might be on the table this winter if we alternate between 140W to 160W blocks and ridging right over us.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GFS Day 3-5 is a few more notches further west with the cold, arctic air in BC. Other noticeable differences. The block is trending stronger, source of cold air not digging as far into the Northern Plains/Midwest, and heights rising over the Central Plains. That is 5 consecutive GFS runs showing this trend. Remember, this is the trend I have been watching for. As of now the results aren't too significant just some cooler air filters southward into Eastern Washington/Columbia Basin resulting in a somewhat chilly gusty east wind. However, if this trend continues we'll see a fairly cold backdoor shot. Animated GIF below shows this trend and progress of cold air very well. It will be interesting to see if 12z later this morning continues this and especially if the GEM/EURO were to latch onto this as well.

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GEFS

 

Day 8-11 Retrogression! Not ideal YET. C'MON!!!!

 

[Front Ranger]

6z GFS Day 3-5 is a few more notches further west with the cold, arctic air in BC. Other noticeable differences. The block is trending stronger, source of cold air not digging as far into the Northern Plains/Midwest, and heights rising over the Central Plains. That is 5 consecutive GFS runs showing this trend. Remember, this is the trend I have been watching for. As of now the results aren't too significant just some cooler air filters southward into Eastern Washington/Columbia Basin resulting in a somewhat chilly gusty east wind. However, if this trend continues we'll see a fairly cold backdoor shot. Animated GIF below shows this trend and progress of cold air very well. It will be interesting to see if 12z later this morning continues this and especially if the GEM/EURO were to latch onto this as well.

 

11 6 19 6z GFS 5 runs trend.gif

 

11 6 19 GFS Day 4.5 5 runs trend.gif

The key is block amplification. It seems every block this year gets stronger and more amplified as we get closer.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Foggy and frosty this morning.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

After a week of lows at 32 or below, we only hit 39F overnight. Foggy and misty.

[TacomaWaWx]

43 and cloudy this morning, warmest we have been in almost 2 weeks.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

43 and cloudy this morning, warmest we have been in almost 2 weeks.

 

By contrast, the past few days here have not had frost; last night was colder than recent nights.

 

It's all local, of course. Yesterday, we had the perfect scenario for a cool-down: overcast all day, cleared up right at sundown.

[Jesse]

Foggy and a low of 40 here. My first low 40 or higher in almost two weeks (last was 10/25).

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Was much cooler this morning. Made it down to 30 under clear skies. I am guessing slightly cooler and drier air must have worked in aloft last night.