November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Jesse]

It’s November 16. Winter hasn’t even started.

Tiger is like this every year.

[Esquimalt]

I think the SSW is screwing the gfs up.

[High Desert Mat?]

I think the SSW is screwing the gfs up.

What is the latest on the SSW?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow the 06z ensembles were a pile of vomit. At this point in 2016 I was still weeks away from my first freeze...and things turned out OK.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

November very rarely delivers in NW Oregon, so at this point it is whatever. 

 

Nice to see all that moisture in the SW. 

[Jesse]

November very rarely delivers in NW Oregon, so at this point it is whatever. 

 

Nice to see all that moisture in the SW.

 

The big thing I’ve missed this month is rain, but really don’t care about it ending up on the mild side temperature wise.

[High Desert Mat?]

Wow the 06z ensembles were a pile of vomit. At this point in 2016 I was still weeks away from my first freeze...and things turned out OK.

That winter sucked in November and I thought winter was never going to start. Then starting Dec. 3rd I had snow on the ground until March 3rd. One of my better winters over here. It also wasn’t a 2nd year Niño = ridgy split flow hell either, so I guess we’ll see.

[TacomaWaWx]

The big thing I’ve missed this month is rain, but really don’t care about it ending up on the mild side temperature wise.

WA definitely did better in terms of rainfall last month and it seems like we will this month too. While WA had a bit below average to average rainfall last month it was below normal down there. This month it’ll end below normal up here as well but even farther below normal south of the Columbia.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That winter sucked in November and I thought winter was never going to start. Then starting Dec. 3rd I had snow on the ground until March 3rd. One of my better winters over here. It also wasn’t a 2nd year Niño = ridgy split flow hell either, so I guess we’ll see.

 

Yeah we had record rain in October 2016 and a very wet November too. Right now we are in split flow hell. Though I really doubt we will have 3 months of it. I would really be shocked if we had really wet cold month like January 1969 or 50, but a few very cold airmasses followed by inversions like December 1985 or January 1979 are definitely on the table. 

[Omegaraptor]

I think it’s pretty certain that the solar minimum blocky script will be followed this winter.

 

Really just a matter of getting the block in the right place. If we don’t get exceptionally unlucky as a region a la 76-77, I’m sure most people will see something.

[snow_wizard]

A nice graphic to show just how amazing October really was.  This is classic...a very cold October follwed by ridging right over us in November.  Recipe for a great winter.

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Driest November on record possible for Eugene if Monday's storm happens to fizzle -- looks dry for the rest of the month after that.

 

Second driest on record looks to be a safe bet.  Current record is 0.35" in 1936.  #2 is 1.20" in 1956.

 

Those were some pretty great winters. January 1957 and 1937 are two of the coldest on record for Eugene. A stunning 29.3 mean temp for January 1937.

 

https://climate.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024221&year=1957&month=1&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

 

https://climate.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USC00352706&year=1937&month=1&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

 

 

I think it’s pretty certain that the solar minimum blocky script will be followed this winter.

 

Really just a matter of getting the block in the right place. If we don’t get exceptionally unlucky as a region a la 76-77, I’m sure most people will see something.

 

Looks more splitty than blocky right now. 

[snow_wizard]

I think it’s pretty certain that the solar minimum blocky script will be followed this winter.

 

Really just a matter of getting the block in the right place. If we don’t get exceptionally unlucky as a region a la 76-77, I’m sure most people will see something.

 

October was totally different in 1976.  That month is important for setting the tone for the winter.  As an aside January 1977 was colder than any Jan since then in my area.  Landsburg averaged 32.8 that month.  That was exceptionally cold compared to most places in the Western Lowlands, but it shows we weren't all that far off.

[snow_wizard]

Those were some pretty great winters. January 1957 and 1937 are two of the coldest on record for Eugene. A stunning 29.3 mean temp for January 1937.

 

https://climate.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024221&year=1957&month=1&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

 

https://climate.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USC00352706&year=1937&month=1&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

 

 

 

Looks more splitty than blocky right now. 

 

Jan 1937 averaged 26.5 in my area.  Only a couple of degrees higher than Jan 1950.

[TacomaWaWx]

A nice graphic to show just how amazing October really was. This is classic...a very cold October follwed by ridging right over us in November. Recipe for a great winter.

October was pretty interesting, don’t think I’ve ever seen 40-45mph Cascadia wind gusts with the DP in the negatives in late October here in Tacoma. I hadn’t recorded a freeze in October in the last 15 years but ended up with 4 last month. One of them on 10/10 which is crazy early.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A nice graphic to show just how amazing October really was.  This is classic...a very cold October follwed by ridging right over us in November.  Recipe for a great winter.

 

Not going to lie. That is impressive. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Jan 1937 averaged 26.5 in my area.  Only a couple of degrees higher than Jan 1950.

 

January 1937 was actually colder in Eugene than 1950. By about 2 degrees. They did however have 36" of snow in January 1950. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Top 3 coldest months at EUG (Counting the old station) are:

 

1) January 1949

2) January 1937

3) January 1930 

[Omegaraptor]

Jan 1937 averaged 26.5 in my area.  Only a couple of degrees higher than Jan 1950.

 

The January 1937 record cold also extended pretty far south into California, although I'm not totally sure how far south. I don't think Jan 1950 extended as far south.

 

That was the month the state cold record was set, -45ºF at Boca, a little village east of Truckee. Taking a quick look at SC-ACIS, other impressive readings include:

 

-37ºF at Bridgeport

-34ºF at Sierraville

-32ºF at Alturas

-31ºF at Doyle

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 12z ensembles were slightly better. 

[Farmboy]

A nice graphic to show just how amazing October really was. This is classic...a very cold October follwed by ridging right over us in November. Recipe for a great winter.

Were past winters that had these October/November patterns also have SSW events?

[Timmy Supercell]

A nice graphic to show just how amazing October really was.  This is classic...a very cold October follwed by ridging right over us in November.  Recipe for a great winter.

 

Folks on social media are using this current few week dry period as a "this is going to suck kind of winter" lol. We don't often have very snowy Thanksgivings, but we can have a lot of white Christmas days.

[BLI snowman]

The January 1937 record cold also extended pretty far south into California, although I'm not totally sure how far south. I don't think Jan 1950 extended as far south.

 

That was the month the state cold record was set, -45ºF at Boca, a little village east of Truckee. Taking a quick look at SC-ACIS, other impressive readings include:

 

-37ºF at Bridgeport

-34ºF at Sierraville

-32ºF at Alturas

-31ºF at Doyle

 

 

January 1937 is the coldest month on record in California, narrowly edging out January 1949.

 

The month is also noteworthy for having essentially no warmth at all anywhere. The maximum temp for the whole month was 44 in downtown Portland and 43 in downtown Seattle, both are records.

 

It also had the historic blizzard on the final day of the month, which dropped a one day record of 25" of snow in Salem.

[ShawniganLake]

November 1936 was also incredibly dry up this way. Just 1.57” of precip. Seems like that month had a much more continental feel to it than this one so far. Nov 1936 had 18 freezes here. So far 2019 has had none.

[ShawniganLake]

January 1937 is the coldest month on record in California, narrowly edging out January 1949.

 

The month is also noteworthy for having essentially no warmth at all anywhere. The maximum temp for the whole month was 44 in downtown Portland and 43 in downtown Seattle, both are records.

 

It also had the historic blizzard on the final day of the month, which dropped a one day record of 25" of snow in Salem.

The biggest snows of that winter came in early February here. 3 feet in the first 5 days of the month

[TT-SEA]

Blocking really strengthening on the 12Z ECMWF late in the run.

[Esquimalt]

Blocking really strengthening on the 12Z ECMWF late in the run.

Not exactly in a good way either...

[snow_wizard]

January 1937 is the coldest month on record in California, narrowly edging out January 1949.

 

The month is also noteworthy for having essentially no warmth at all anywhere. The maximum temp for the whole month was 44 in downtown Portland and 43 in downtown Seattle, both are records.

 

It also had the historic blizzard on the final day of the month, which dropped a one day record of 25" of snow in Salem.

 

The month end snowstorm was also very extensive.  The totals weren't as heavy this far north, but Seattle still managed 7 inches.

[Omegaraptor]

Phoenix's forecast is wetter than Portland's.

 

I really love this climate.                         

 

also, this is my 2002nd post 

[TacomaWaWx]

Not exactly in a good way either...

yeah blocking is too Far East. Like someone said earlier I think it was tim the blocking in the right direction shows up at day 10 but has been getting delayed over and over the last few days. Get the feeling it might be like this for a while. It’ll have to change eventually. Its only mid November though, maybe something happens by early to mid December?

[snow_wizard]

Not exactly in a good way either...

 

I wouldn't say that.  I was actually going to comment that is the thing I really liked about the 12z ECMWF.  Strong blocking like that can easily restructure into a more favorable configuration for us.  For the Puget Sound area the run was also good in that surface gradients are northerly for most of next week instead of degrading to easterly.  A recipe for a cold / clear inversion.  It's basically impossible for this area to be above normal with northerly gradients this time of year as long as skies are clear.

[snow_wizard]

yeah blocking is too Far East. Like someone said earlier I think it was tim the blocking in the right direction shows up at day 10 but has been getting delayed over and over the last few days. Get the feeling it might be like this for a while. It’ll have to change eventually. Its only mid November though, maybe something happens by early to mid December?

 

The active MJO is our ace in the hole.  It's only a matter of time.  In the meantime next week will be colder than most people think.

[TacomaWaWx]

The active MJO is our ace in the hole. It's only a matter of time. In the meantime next week will be colder than most people think.

looks like the second half of the month will be a little chillier.

[Timmy Supercell]

January 1937 is the coldest month on record in California, narrowly edging out January 1949.

 

The month is also noteworthy for having essentially no warmth at all anywhere. The maximum temp for the whole month was 44 in downtown Portland and 43 in downtown Seattle, both are records.

 

It also had the historic blizzard on the final day of the month, which dropped a one day record of 25" of snow in Salem.

 

Whoa, I'm not sure that's ever happened in this town once. 

Maybe over a period of 48 hours I'm sure it occurred in the 1950's and 90's.

 

 

Phoenix's forecast is wetter than Portland's.

 

I really love this climate.                         

 

also, this is my 2002nd post 

 

[Omegaraptor]

12z Euro is dry from Hour 72 to the end of the run.

[snow_wizard]

The WRF is pretty cool for next week.  At face value it shows most highs in the interior being mid 40s to low 50s with widespread frost at night.  I'm actually glad to see the blocking getting more solid again.

[snow_wizard]

12z Euro is dry from Hour 72 to the end of the run.

 

Indeed.  Highly abnormal stuff being shown.

[Omegaraptor]

Indeed.  Highly abnormal stuff being shown.

 

Is it really abnormal anymore? To quote someone on this forum, at this point it's like saying that every wind gust on Mt Washington is special.

[Timmy Supercell]

Is it really abnormal anymore? To quote someone on this forum, at this point it's like saying that every wind gust on Mt Washington is special.

 

Considering I've recorded precip in the first half of November pretty much for 17 years before 2018 I'd say going this long without a trace (going nearly a month now) is a little unusual. I even live in a far drier place than anywhere west of the cascades too, and November rain is not hard to get at KLMT.

[Jesse]

Indeed.  Highly abnormal stuff being shown.

Drier than normal has become pretty normal in recent years.