November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[TacomaWaWx]

This is all a bunch of crap. He just said he was not enjoying the current gooey rain fest. You are extrapolating way beyond that for some reason.

 

And side note... it was consistently sunnier and warmer in my area than in your area during the dry spell.

You know what, you’re right probably shouldn’t have dug into it as much as I did. We’re all wrong sometimes and I was then and there. Wasn’t meant as a malice comment but it became that.

[ShawniganLake]

Hmm. Ensemble trending much cooler too. Could be a major EPS failure upcoming

[Anti Marine Layer]

Lots of interesting weather models there. They are in disagreement about how much rain California will get by the middle of the week.

[Gradient Keeper]

Hmmm!!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Ensembles

 

Portland

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

 

 

Seattle

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

 

 

Yakima

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Yakima_USA_ens.png

[High Desert Mat?]

Still looks a little like the split flow 2nd Niño hell we’ve been seeing. Hoping by the end of the month we can finally see that light in the tunnel we’re all hoping for.

[snow_wizard]

The GFS is about to go big at the end of the run.  The block moves over the GOA and another cell of of high pressure crashes into it from behind.  We also have the GEM fully on board with the Aleutian block by day 10.  We might have something here.

[High Desert Mat?]

00z GFS Ensembles

 

Portland

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

 

 

Seattle

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

 

 

Yakima

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Yakima_USA_ens.png

Pretty bad when we are cheering a couple degrees above the average line in the mid and long range. 20-21 is where it’s probably at.

[snow_wizard]

Still looks a little like the split flow 2nd Niño hell we’ve been seeing. Hoping by the end of the month we can finally see that light in the tunnel we’re all hoping for.

 

I'm not buying the Nino thing.  We are officially neutral.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty bad when we are cheering a couple degrees above the average line in the mid and long range. 20-21 is where it’s probably at.

 

We are talking about the improvement.  I actually think something is looking pretty possible late this month or early December.

[ShawniganLake]

I don’t think nino 3.4 has surpassed that +0.5C threshold on 1 day in the past 3 months.

[snow_wizard]

I don’t think nino 3.4 has surpassed that +0.5C threshold on 1 day in the past 3 months.

 

No...in fact the tri monthly for ASO was only +0.1.  There has never been a Nino in the winter following an ASO reading that low.  For the record warm neutral is one of the best ENSO states for us.  

[snow_wizard]

I would be lying if I said I wasn't pleased with the models tonight.  Looks like something is brewing.

[ShawniganLake]

No...in fact the tri monthly for ASO was only +0.1. There has never been a Nino in the winter following an ASO reading that low. For the record warm neutral is one of the best ENSO states for us.

We would have to re write the criteria to say we are in a Nino right now. It’s just not accurate

[Gradient Keeper]

Hmmm, don't jump on the GFS solution just yet.

 

The 00z GFS Analog Composite Day 6-10, 8-14 feature the lowest C = scoring I think I've ever seen. 0.755921 and 0.643719. Very low confidence in my opinion.

 

00z EPS in 2 hours 42 minutes

[snow_wizard]

 

Hmmm, don't jump on the GFS solution just yet.

 

The 00z GFS Analog Composite Day 6-10, 8-14 feature the lowest C = scoring I think I've ever seen. 0.755921 and 0.643719. Very low confidence in my opinion.

 

00z EPS in 2 hours 42 minutes

 

 

The Canadian really backs it up though.

[Gradient Keeper]

Not my area of expertise, but that looks like some stout stratospheric warming

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Pivotal isn't working

[snow_wizard]

Not my area of expertise, but that looks like some stout stratospheric warming

 

 

As if we didn't have enough of a blocking signal already for this winter!  I think that's the area that really benefits us too if memory serves.

[snow_wizard]

One interesting thing about the analogs at day 8 is the most recent one is 1988.  Pretty nice to see all of that old school stuff.

[Gradient Keeper]

The Canadian really backs it up though.

That's true for sure. I think it all ride on King EURO.... All eyes on Day 4-5 to see if there is a ridge merger, or does it trend to the cooler, wetter GFS/GEM.

[Omegaraptor]

I don’t think nino 3.4 has surpassed that +0.5C threshold on 1 day in the past 3 months.

  

No...in fact the tri monthly for ASO was only +0.1.  There has never been a Nino in the winter following an ASO reading that low.  For the record warm neutral is one of the best ENSO states for us.

 

It did surpass 0.5°C for like two days this week. It’s back down to +0.36°C now.

 

Cold neutral is statistically the best ENSO for lowland snow I think but warm neutral is also good.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Michael Ventrice‏Verified account @MJVentrice Mar 1

More

I was re-giving my talk at #AMS2019 to some colleagues over in Europe this morning and noticed the Siberian SSWE warming composite +14 days after the event show the -PNA whereas during North Atlantic SSWE initiations, you don't get the trough over western North America...

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

I took down an earlier post of a twitter from Ventrice showing what happens BEFORE a SSW event.  Confusingly, to me, he said SSW events over Siberia are typical of El Nino, and the opposite over the North Atlantic.  Yet this last post I showed from him shows that SSW over Siberia is good for us.  This is what I really wanted to post.

[Gradient Keeper]

 

Michael Ventrice‏Verified account @MJVentrice Mar 1

More

I was re-giving my talk at #AMS2019 to some colleagues over in Europe this morning and noticed the Siberian SSWE warming composite +14 days after the event show the -PNA whereas during North Atlantic SSWE initiations, you don't get the trough over western North America...

 

Looks excellent!

 

I took down an earlier post of a twitter from Ventrice showing what happens BEFORE a SSW event.  Confusingly, to me, he said SSW events over Siberia are typical of El Nino, and the opposite over the North Atlantic.  Yet this last post I showed from him shows that SSW over Siberia is good for us.  This is what I really wanted to post.

December 1st. Here we go! Well that looks outstanding for us.

[Phil]

I don’t think nino 3.4 has surpassed that +0.5C threshold on 1 day in the past 3 months.

The ONI has been at/above 0.5C for a month now.

[Phil]

I took down an earlier post of a twitter from Ventrice showing what happens BEFORE a SSW event. Confusingly, to me, he said SSW events over Siberia are typical of El Nino, and the opposite over the North Atlantic. Yet this last post I showed from him shows that SSW over Siberia is good for us. This is what I really wanted to post.

I think that’s an oversimplification, unless he’s referring to slow wave-1/top-down SSWings being more typical of niños, which I believe is true.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 5

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Not too many adjustments for this to turn into a cold, possibly arctic pattern.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, model support is growing for an SSW starting by the end of the month. The PV is already weakening, which is unusual for this time of year.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

 

Day 8

 

[/quote

 

Obviously not as good as GFS, but much better than previous runs

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9 Ugly. Cut-off bias?

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Not looking good...

[Esquimalt]

Day 9 Ugly. Cut-off bias?

 

Almost looks like the block is reconfiguring though.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Day 10.  Compare it to day 10 from the 12Z  (of course that would be hour 252).

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Onto 12z tomorrow. AT LEAST it appears we may have an actual pattern change or even better(in my opinion) maybe favorable blocking coming.... 00z EPS in 1 hour 25 minutes

[El_Nina]

All this is doing is pointlessly delaying ski season.

 

My sentiments exactly