Veteran's Day System

[Tom]

So I'm up in Traverse City waiting patiently for the lake effect snow that was supposed to start 5 hours ago. Actually changed my work plans according to the (ever changing) forecast in this area, but in reality could have easily finished up and been in Ludington tonight. So I'll have to drive through it tomorrow instead.

That band just to your west dumped almost 3 Feet of snow in Leelanau county...

 

 

Joe Charlevoix

‏Verified account @joecharlevoix 6h6 hours ago

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I throw in the towel. 33" measured off S. Benzonia Trail near Empire in Leelanau Co. Unbelievable amounts of snow under a band of stationary lake effect snow. Interestingly enough, just 20 miles away to the east 0" has fallen.

 

 

[jaster220]

Another LES dump-zone, this one in SWMI. Historic proportion hits out there in localized places for sure!

 

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
752 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2019

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 AM HEAVY SNOW 3 E BANGOR 42.31N 86.06W
11/12/2019 M24.0 INCH VAN BUREN MI PUBLIC

STORM TOTAL SO FAR SINCE YESTERDAY MORNING.
TWO MEASURED REPORTS FROM BANGOR AND GRAND
JUNCTION AREAS OF 23 TO 24 INCHES.

 

[Minny_Weather]

Looks like I added about a half inch of LES after I went to bed last night.

[jaster220]

Looks like I added about a half inch of LES after I went to bed last night.

 

Nice little overnight bonus of 0.4" here as well. Simply beautiful "winter" morning on the day after. Blue skies, frosty 12F, snow on all the tree branches, even drifts on roof tops of buildings, especially here in Jackson around the airport where it's open for blowing. Amazing turn-out considering the model chaos leading up to the event. Which I can deal with if we trend to this same outcome with storms this season. 

 

Here's some updated historical records data for my native region (SEMI)

 

Detroit:

Record Daily Maximum Snowfall of 8.5 inches was set at Detorit Metro Airport on November 11th, which breaks the old record of 4.1 inches back in 1984. The 8.5 inches, also breaks the November daily snowfall with a previous record of 6.2 inches back on November 15, 1925.

Flint:

Record Daily Maximum Snowfall of 8.6 inches was set at Flint Bishop Airport on November 11th, which breaks the old record of 3.0 inches back in 1933.

[westMJim]

Looking at Cocorahs reports from lower Michigan it looks like the most snow fell is SE Michigan.  Here are the highest snow fall totals on the CoCoRaHS reports. 14.1” at Columbus (St Clair county) 12.6” at Lake Orion (Oakland county) 9.5” Wixom (Oakland County) 8.5” Grass Lake (Jackson County) 7.5” Roseville (Macomb County)

[jaster220]

If counted as the official single storm total, this should be a new all-time record for a November snowfall in Detroit! 

 

0600 AM SNOW ROMULUS 42.22N 83.37W
11/12/2019 M9.2 INCH WAYNE MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

30 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL AT DETROIT METRO AIRPORT

[jaster220]

U of M Ann Arbor scored nicely.

 

 

0700 AM SNOW ANN ARBOR 42.28N 83.73W
11/12/2019 M11.0 INCH WASHTENAW MI CO-OP OBSERVER

30 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL AT THE UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN

 

 

That banding that set-up (as shown on hi-res guidance) just S/SE of my county really pounded for hours. This official report is in far SW Jackson Cnty. It was a narrow miss to the SE for Marshall wrt the best totals. 

 

[jaster220]

Here's an even better illustration of just how close that mega-band was to my place (red dot)

 

[Andie]

 

GLOBAL.

Not what's the weather doing in the eastern US and in Texas. If you're worried about how it's going to be "spun" while thinking bc it's cold too early in your backyard means it's not happening, than I'm guessing you don't understand the difference between weather and climate.

 

Here's a link to a story about what happened on the planet in October.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/earth-just-experienced-its-hottest-october-ever/

 

The problem with saying "weather isn't climate" for the AGW side (or is it Climate Change?-) is that media during a record warm stretch states many times the warm temps are due to climo change. Same thing with fires in CA. Tropical activity also. But when record breaking cold comes- then "weather isn't climate". They have their cake and eat it too. Just like the AGW naming switching to Climate Change in the main stream media some years ago. An honest argument against (not saying true)-- which is what real science is about-- against either has no chance. Almost like it was designed/forged to be that way...… Just saying.

 

I'am a professional in the weather field. Part time winter forecaster for ski hills in N.MN. I use Climo all the time in my weather forecasting. Solid forecasters usually do. I'd like to ask how many on here make house payments from being a professional in weather ?? But yet the science is sealed on what you hear second hand. I have worked in the field for 22 years and lean the way the post would lead many to think because I have worked in the field for 22 years. I have "seen" some things over the years that would likely make any honest - unbiased - person wonder what in the hell is going on with how temps are measured and put down in the books among other things.

 

What is an ideal climate? Asking for a friend.

 

You summed up the issue beautifully.

My comment was tongue and cheek, but was misunderstood. Internet is not good for subtlety.

As to ideal climate, surely that is highly subjective. Most folks think I'm crazy living in Texas.

I made my living in chemical engineering and processing. So, I'm no met or climotologist. I do agree with the "what the hell is going on?"comment. I hope to see how this turns out.

As the Chinese say, " May you live in interesting times."

[jaster220]

I post this map thinking to self "yeah, that looks like typical every day WWA amounts across most of SMI"   

 

 

 

[Niko]

I post this map thinking to self "yeah, that looks like typical every day WWA amounts across most of SMI"   

 

20191112 48hr Snowfall map.png

Do you see how irritating these people there can be? I kept saying to myself yesterday, why is my area under a WWA, when, all hell was breaking outside from heavy snow and visibilities at times were near zero. Just crazy forecasting!

 

Note: W the extra snow last night that I received from Port Huron, it boosted my final storm total to 11.8". BAMMM!

[Niko]

 

Knee-deep snowcover. Notice the small yellow sign. Its half way buried.

 

Final storm total is 11.8".

[jaster220]

Do you see how irritating these people there can be? I kept saying to myself yesterday, why is my area under a WWA, when, all hell was breaking outside from heavy snow and visibilities at times were near zero. Just crazy forecasting!

 

Note: W the extra snow last night that I received from Port Huron, it boosted my final storm total to 11.8". BAMMM!

 

Been wondering...exactly what type of truck that city uses to deliver the snow to yby??  They're certainly doing a great job so far! Do you have a number for their public works dept so I can call and get snow delivered too? 

[Niko]

Been wondering...exactly what type of truck that city uses to deliver the snow to yby??  They're certainly doing a great job so far! Do you have a number for their public works dept so I can call and get snow delivered too? 

555-555-5555  

[jaster220]

555-555-5555

 

Oh Crap! No wonder...I've been calling 555-555-SNOW  

[jaster220]

Had a dept mtg this morning and the conference room window gave me a nice view of all the beautiful fresh snow cover and plow piles & the sunny blue skies made it all the more appealing. Found myself day dreaming more about hitting the slopes than hitting my director's goals. Truth. 

[jaster220]

An update and additional data wrt the SEMI snowfall records I posted earlier. 

 

From the DTW measuring guy:

 

The official final total at DTW was 9.2", making this the largest November snowstorm on record. The old record was 9.0" on November 15/16, 1932 but amazingly outside of the 1932 and 2019 storms, the next largest November snowstorm? 6.6" November 28,1891! There were then quite a few in the 6 to 6.5" range, but it's just so early in the season most of the big storms happen December through March. Records go back 140 years for snow, that's how unprecedented a storm like this is this early in the season.

 

DTX updated for KFNT as well:

 

Flint:

 

Record Daily Maximum Snowfall of 8.6 inches was set at Flint Bishop Airport on November 11th, which breaks the old record of 3.0 inches back in 1933.

Flint tied for the 3rd biggest November winter storm with 9.0 inches of snow.  The biggest November storm for Flint dumped 13.4 inches on November 6-7, 1951.

[bud2380]

I found this on the NWS website, pretty cool feature for checking out where the snow fell.

 

 

https://www.weather.gov/crh/snowfall

 

 

[BMT]

I found this on the NWS website, pretty cool feature for checking out where the snow fell.

 

 

https://www.weather.gov/crh/snowfall

Good stuff.  thanks!

[jaster220]

And it's pretty amazing just how much real estate was sprayed with snow by this system over 3 days. "Day after tomorrow" arctic front for sure..

 

[jaster220]

Was thinking early this morning that some of you younger generation of members may not realize what a surprise these kind of historic events were back when I was a young(er) follower of the Wx. I will cite the decade of the 80's (my first adult decade) as a good example. This was pre-internet ofc, and I was not even familiar with the term "Long Range Forecaster" back then. Basically, the furthest out my sources would speak about was 3 to perhaps 5 days. And it's not like they always got it right at those ranges either, there were plenty of last-minute surprises both good and bad. Even at the very end of that decade, the Nov 16th 1989 blizzard here in the Mitt virtually unfolded as an almost "real time" event. So this kind of event we just experienced was even more wild to those caught up in such "back in the day" as you can imagine. A decade later, by the time the Bliz of '99 came along, I was living closer to the big city of Chicago and would regularly buy the Tribune just to read Skilling's weather page during winter. I remember he and his team hi-lighting the risk with pretty high confidence at 5 days noting that the S. end of Lake Michigan region could see upwards of 2" qpf event, which during January is an eye-catcher for sure. There was only talk of a "low forming east of the Rockies" with no further indication whether we'd be talking snow or just rain. Now-a-days we have so many outlets to get hints way out in Lala-land. Removing the element of surprise from winter events has pro's and con's. While it's a fun hobby to be able to "track" potential events from weeks in advance, the loss of "wow factor" that existed in a by-gone era is just that, a loss imho. I'm not saying one is better than the other, just making a reflective commentary here, that's all. 

[jaster220]

This is most likely the biggest snowfall report I've personally seen in the Lwr Peninsula of Michigan in all my years of following wx. 

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
212 PM EST TUE NOV 12 2019

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0211 PM HEAVY SNOW 3 W SUTTONS BAY 44.98N 85.72W
11/12/2019 M31.7 INCH LEELANAU MI TRAINED SPOTTER

36 HOUR TOTAL ENDING 200 PM.

[OKwx2k4]

Was thinking early this morning that some of you younger generation of members may not realize what a surprise these kind of historic events were back when I was a young(er) follower of the Wx. I will cite the decade of the 80's (my first adult decade) as a good example. This was pre-internet ofc, and I was not even familiar with the term "Long Range Forecaster" back then. Basically, the furthest out my sources would speak about was 3 to perhaps 5 days. And it's not like they always got it right at those ranges either, there were plenty of last-minute surprises both good and bad. Even at the very end of that decade, the Nov 16th 1989 blizzard here in the Mitt virtually unfolded as an almost "real time" event. So this kind of event we just experienced was even more wild to those caught up in such "back in the day" as you can imagine. A decade later, by the time the Bliz of '99 came along, I was living closer to the big city of Chicago and would regularly buy the Tribune just to read Skilling's weather page during winter. I remember he and his team hi-lighting the risk with pretty high confidence at 5 days noting that the S. end of Lake Michigan region could see upwards of 2" qpf event, which during January is an eye-catcher for sure. There was only talk of a "low forming east of the Rockies" with no further indication whether we'd be talking snow or just rain. Now-a-days we have so many outlets to get hints way out in Lala-land. Removing the element of surprise from winter events has pro's and con's. While it's a fun hobby to be able to "track" potential events from weeks in advance, the loss of "wow factor" that existed in a by-gone era is just that, a loss imho. I'm not saying one is better than the other, just making a reflective commentary here, that's all.

I enjoyed that. Great commentary. As a young(er) but "old school" guy, I feel the sentiment expressed here very heavily.