Veteran's Day System

[Hawkeye]

I have about 0.6" so far as some brighter returns move in.

[Niko]

yep, 8" KCH for me. 

 

First of this season, and hopefully first of many such maps. (Niko, grats on a two-mapper event to kick off your season)

 

20191110 noaa d2 Surf Map.gif

20191110 noaa d3 Surf Map.gif

Thanks amigo!!

I am gonna get walloped w snow!!  Long duration!!

 

Such a perfect track.

[Niko]

The snow has begun. Snowing lightly in mby now. Its a bit early also. At 32F attm.

[snowstorm83]

Looks like it's snowing in the Omaha metro. Band is sinking towards the northern border of Lancaster county so it shouldn't be long till the first flakes here. 

[hlcater]

Not a flake in IC. Might be lucky to see 2" at this point. CR looks to do well though. Sigh...

[Hawkeye]

Latest HRRR... still 0.40" over Cedar Rapids.

 

Brighter green is back over us on radar, but the flakes are still very small.

 

[Hawkeye]

1.4" here so far, snowing nicely.  Pavement is now covered.

[hlcater]

Snow has started in IC. Dusting on cars and the deck so far.

[Hawkeye]

Snow has started in IC. Dusting on cars and the deck so far.

 

Yep, it's finally sagging south.  Iowa City should be under the green returns in the next hour or so.

[Grizzcoat]

about 1.2" here 20 miles NW of DSM. Roads are horrible with no treatment or care. (yet). 

[ToastedRavs]

Great rates here just outside of Des Moines. I'd say visibility around half mile with two inches on the ground. We may be able to get 4 out of this

[Tom]

Happy Veteran's Day and Snow Day!  Woke up this morning and felt like a kid again as I looked out my window and the landscape is white.  The little things in life that get you going!  Before I went to bed, precip started off as light rain with temps around 37F.  Not sure when the switch over happened but it looks like it did not long afterwards.

 

The snow that is falling now is light and fluffy with temps in the upper 20's (27F) and a strong N wind @ 15 mph.  You can see the Lehs bands that are setting up and hitting Cook county on radar.

 

 

 

 

National radar right now is literally covering everyone on here that is within 50 miles of I-80 with snow...

[Clinton]

Sleet falling windy and cold.

[Tom]

Just went outside and measured 2.5" on my deck...lovin' the fact that this storm is a colder one and the snow is light and fluffy...powda baby!

[Grizzcoat]

So the NWS in basically 60 hours goes from a "non event" (per several discussions)  to now  schools closing here in the  DSM area. The guidance was there 60 hours ago- the Bias from DMX bit them hard core. 3-4" in MBY. Small flakes - but accumulates well and also well melt fast. Guessing 15:1 to 17:1 rations/  
 

[Niko]

Someone here in SEMI will get buried......

 

PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 AM EST Mon Nov 11 2019

DISCUSSION...

Water vapor imagery early this morning suggests model trends to a
more amplified mid/upper level shortwave over the past several runs
is indeed on track. In fact, the degree to which the southwestern
extent of trough in the vicinity of WY/CO is still digging southeast
show perhaps that models still have just a bit catching up to do.
This stronger solution has already allow for a rapid intensification
of jet energy over the Great Lakes/southern Ontario with a core of
this feature already exceeding 150 kts (per 00z APX/GRB soundings).
The eastern edge of entrance region has already had some influence
on fgen forcing overnight with pockets of light snow having produced
a dusting of snow. This forcing will increase through the rest of
the morning as jet dynamics become increasingly favorable over the
region as broad scale lift with this system migrates eastward into
the Great Lakes.
Lake effect/enhancement remains a big part of this event and should
begin to take shape near the Thumb over the next several hours now
that a secondary cold front has dropped south into the area and
allowed wind direction to veer to the N/NNE. As very cold airmass
deepens into the morning hours within this flow, expect extreme
instability to develop given the delta-T that sets up between the
relatively mild lake temperatures early in the season and a near
record to record airmass for the second week of November. Modified
equilibrium levels remain on track to increase to near 15kft over
the next 12-18 hours (although initial echo tops of lake effect
elements over northern Lake Huron are currently topping out around
10kft early this morning).

With the upper trough at least as strong as 00z cycle models show,
and thermal troughing over the lakes increasing into the day with
the advent of the lead edge of the arctic airmass, feel much more
confident that low level flow will remain from the NNE/NE through
the day and into the evening. This will support a steady onslaught
of lake effect snow showers/squalls into the Thumb region and also
suggests and significant activity will likely migrate down Saginaw
Bay and impact Tuscola county significant into at least this
evening. The western edge of this enhancement will most likely reach
portions of Saginaw/Bay counties as well.

Given this increase in confidence, will upgrade Tuscola to a warning
and add Saginaw/Bay to the Winter Weather Advisory (with at least
some chance of an upgrade here as well depending on how the dominant
lake effect banding sets up during the course of the morning. By
increase snowfall back into these locations, have also upped totals
over Huron county where at least parts of the county will receive
rather steady moderate to heavy snow squalls over the next 12-18
hours. Snow squalls with echo tops between 10kft-15kft will very
much support snowfall rates of several inches per hour, especially
given the favorable DGZ that evolves through the saturated layer.
During the most intense snow squalls, would not be surprised at all
if thunder snow occurs.

Confidence is rather high that some areas will receive 12-18 inches
of snow in Huron county (and perhaps parts of Sanilac county) as
activity persist into the overnight tonight with low level flow
gradually backing to the N/NNW. Depending on how persistent banding
is in any given location, local 2 foot amounts would not be
unreasonable. On the edge of this heaviest/most persistent snow
squall activity, widely varying snowfall amounts can be expected and
generally will fall in the 6-12 inch range by tonight with some
locally higher amounts. The trend during the course of today and
tonight suggest the best focus will extend from Huron county back
southwest through the bay initially and then shift southward along
the Lake Huron shoreline by evening into the overnight hours. This
activity will migrate more and more into the open waters of Lake
Huron by Tuesday, but still may impact the eastern portions of the
Thumb (especially Huron county).

Given the widespread snow cover that will in place by tonight,
expect record cold temperatures to ensue from Tuesday into Wednesday
as the increased surface albedo (and resultant increase in reflected
solar radiation) will act to enhance an already frigid airmass.

[Niko]

Attm, moderate snow falling sideways w temps at 29F. Winds are quite gusty.

[Minny_Weather]

The solutions that screwed me but nailed the mitt are coming to fruition right now. I feel I've already lost an inch or so due to lack of moisture.

 

Temps are cool at least, so that worry is off the table. just need to get the moisture in here now. 32.9*F.

[Tom]

As daylight emerges, the landscape looks like a winter wonderland with white gold.  The snow is blowing off the roofs and it looks and feels like January out there!  Impressive system for early/mid Nov standards.  Sitting under a nice band right across I-90 and I-88.

 

 

Man, S Cook county should be getting hit pretty good with a distinct Lehs band....there's actually another one that is hitting the N side of the metro.  @Jaycee, where you at???  

 

 

 

[Niko]

Radar looks awesome. My goodness. It is going to be a very snowy day. Long duration of snowfall as well. Its expected to be snowing past the midnight hour and into Tuesday late morning b4 all set and done. I cannot wait to see my snow totals.

 

Btw: RGEM gives all of Detroit near a foot of snow....

[Hawkeye]

As the last good snow band begins to exit the CR area I'm just wondering how I'm going to measure.  There are already varying totals just on the northeast side of CR... 3.5-5.7".

[Money]

Picked up another inch or two here

 

Probably good 14-15 on the season

[Niko]

Look at this radar...wow

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Picked up about 1.5" of wind blown snow overnight into this morning by 6:30 AM.  However, we may be adding to that as a heavy band is coming through now.  Should end at 2" or so.  Small drifting and snow blowing across roads, streets, but no slickness as the snow is very light and dry.

[james1976]

What a way to wake up on my birthday! Nice lil gift from mother nature. I measured an avg of 1.6" on patio table. It's pretty windy and snow is blowing off rooftops. Temp is down to 16. It's like January!

[Minny_Weather]

Look at this radar...wow

 

Looks like moisture is at least trying to fill in towards my direction. That's good as I haven't seen a single flake so far. 32.4*F.

[Clinton]

2nd WWA of the season

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
717 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2019

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ011>014-020>023-028>031-037-038-043-044-
053-054-111800-
/O.EXA.KEAX.WW.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-191111T1800Z/
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-
Johnson KS-Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Buchanan-Clinton-Caldwell-
Livingston-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Jackson-Lafayette-Cass-
Johnson MO-Bates-Henry-
Including the cities of Atchison, Paola, Osawatomie, Louisburg,
Pleasanton, La Cygne, Mound City, Wathena, Elwood, Troy,
Highland, Fort Leavenworth, Leavenworth, Lansing,
Kansas City Kansas, Overland Park, Stanley, Olathe, Shawnee,
Lenexa, Oregon, Maitland, Forest City, Craig, Savannah,
Country Club Villa, Maysville, Stewartsville, Osborn, Union Star,
Clarksdale, Gallatin, Jamesport, St. Joseph Airport, St. Joseph,
Cameron, Plattsburg, Lathrop, Hamilton, Braymer, Polo,
Breckenridge, Chillicothe, Parkville, Platte City, Riverside,
Weatherby Lake, Weston, Gladstone, Liberty, Excelsior Springs,
Richmond, Lawson, Carrollton, Kansas City, Independence, Odessa,
Higginsville, Lexington, Concordia, Belton, Raymore,
Harrisonville, Pleasant Hill, Warrensburg, Butler, Adrian,
Rich Hill, Clinton, and Windsor
717 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Additional snow accumulations of a
half to one inch and ice accumulations of a light glaze. Winds
gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Kansas and
north central, northwest and west central Missouri.

* WHEN...Until noon CST today.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions and limited
visibilities due to blowing snow. The hazardous conditions could
impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

T

[Tom]

Picked up about 1.5" of wind blow snow overnight into this morning by 6:30 AM.  However, we may be adding to that as a heavy band is coming through now.  Should end at 2" or so.  Small drifting and snow blowing across roads, streets, but no slickness as the snow is very light and dry.

Nice to hear a lot of us on here were able to share in the snow dept before the arctic air hits.  What's your total so far this season?

[Niko]

Looks like moisture is at least trying to fill in towards my direction. That's good as I haven't seen a single flake so far. 32.4*F.

It will eventually. Moisture will slowly sag southward towards OH as the morning wears on. Notice how it is taking a neg tilt. You should receive some decent snowfall.

[Bryan1117]

About 1.5” of snow here in Southwest Omaha, it’s a Winter wonderland outside! 

 

Current temperature is 16 degrees with a brisk north wind, brrrr! 

[Tom]

What a way to wake up on my birthday! Nice lil gift from mother nature. I measured an avg of 1.6" on patio table. It's pretty windy and snow is blowing off rooftops. Temp is down to 16. It's like January!

Happy B Day bud!  I just came inside from shoveling the snow and thought the same.  It really does feel like January out there!  Minus the leaves that are still on the trees and ground, the powder flying off the roofs is wild to see this early in the season.  I remember someone on here a few years ago commented on one of the legendary seasons back in the late 70's that started off in a similar fashion like we are seeing this year with multiple cold & wintry systems that began targeting our region in Nov and never let go through the rest of the season.  Are we heading that way this year???  I strongly believe so.

[Minny_Weather]

It will eventually. Moisture will slowly sag southward towards OH as the morning wears on. Notice how it is taking a neg tilt. You should receive some decent snowfall.

I think I'm good. The system just looks to be slower than expected as HRRR keeps accumulating snow going till midnight tonight for me vs the 6pm that it was originally supposed to be. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Nice to hear a lot of us on here were able to share in the snow dept before the arctic air hits.  What's your total so far this season?

About 6" unofficially in 3 separate events so far in Oct. and Nov.

[james1976]

Happy B Day bud! I just came inside from shoveling the snow and thought the same. It really does feel like January out there! Minus the leaves that are still on the trees and ground, the powder flying off the roofs is wild to see this early in the season. I remember someone on here a few years ago commented on one of the legendary seasons back in the late 70's that started off in a similar fashion like we are seeing this year with multiple cold & wintry systems that began targeting our region in Nov and never let go through the rest of the season. Are we heading that way this year??? I strongly believe so.

Thanks Tom! Yeah I agree. Doesn't appear to be much for pullbacks in this first cycle at least. Its definitely reminding me of '13-'14!

[Stacsh]

looking like a 2-3” event here north of GR. The GRR office should do better on the south side of town.

[Clinton]

Light snow and 27 degrees.

[CentralNebWeather]

14 degrees with a wind chill of 6 with low gray clouds.  Definitely looks and feels like winter.

[bud2380]

I'm waiting for the official reports out of North Liberty since I didn't have time to take proper measurements this morning.  I did take a few just around my front yard and driveway, and it looked to be between 3 and 4".  If we go low end of 3" that still puts me at 10.5" for the season.  Crazy.  Especially compared to 2011-12 where I believe I finished with 13" for the entire season.  

[Andie]

62*! But taking the fast lane down to 24* and up to 50 mph wind gusts!

 

This is what we call a Blue Norther and it's only about 2 months early. I mean, Wha?

Only a 30% chance of rain.

 

Button up!

[CentralNebWeather]

What an odd morning.  Just looked out my school window and a very heavy snow band is coming through again with low visibility and strong winds.  This is what a lake effect snow band must look like.  Huge flakes, though the radar doesn't show much.