Veteran's Day System

[jaster220]

12z NAM to Monday evening   Edit- Still wants to put the heaviest 1/2 cnty south of foreign models. Good test shaping up here..

 

[Niko]

12z NAM to Monday evening 

 

20191110 12z nam MI_Snowfall to h36.png

Beautiful map amigo!

[jaster220]

IWX

 

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

Issued at 511 AM EST Sun Nov 10 2019

Taste of winter arrives with a vengeance at the start of the
period as large scale ascent expands across the entire forecast
area Monday morning in response to strong fgen forcing as 140+ kt
jet streak screams overhead. Period of good alignment with DGZ and
best lift, to bring period of light snow to everyone, initially N
half or so in the morning and then shifting SE for the afternoon.
Have increased QPF somewhat, resulting in slightly higher snowfall
totals with most locations now likely to see a solid 2 inches of
snow, with higher amounts possible both where best FGEN forcing
finally sets up (models still varying on this). In addition, lake
enhancement will be occurring across Berrien and LaPorte counties
with some potential for advisory level conditions by afternoon.

Eventually, lake effect will take over in the NW areas with
transition to more northerly flow through the day and eventually
NW as we get into Monday night and Tuesday. Not going to go into
major specifics that have been discussed the past several days,
but inversion heights to 10K feet and extreme instability will all
set the stage for increased threat for sig lake effect snow.
Travel conditions look to be impacted Monday night into Tuesday
for at least Berrien and Cass counties in Michigan, likely
extending SE into portions of northern Indiana. Exact positioning
and duration of any bands remains a challenge. However, after much
internal and external collaboration opted to hoist a Winter Storm
Watch for Berrien and Cass counties starting at 12Z Monday. Start
time for this was difficult to determine with light snow likely
ongoing across the area Sunday night into Monday, but greatest
impacts more late Monday into Tuesday. Winter weather advisories
and quite possibly Winter Storm Warnings will be needed in later
forecasts. Kept confined to these 2 counties where we have
consistently messaged that snow amounts of 6 to 8 inches were
possible. Guaranteed changes will be coming in later forecasts.
While lake effect will be starting to wind down Tuesday, still
will be impacts in the morning so kept things simple with watch
and ended at 00Z Weds.

While lake effect will be a big deal, can`t forget the very cold
mid November temps expected with highs Tuesday and now also into
Weds staying in the 20s and overnight lows in the single digits
and teens. One thing to note with temps is several models trying
to trend even colder with highs Tues (upper teens to low 20s at
best). Given expected snowpack and strength of the CAA can`t rule
this out.

Only a glance at forecast beyond 00Z Weds, but still showing weak
system passing by to the north with chc of light snow and
little/no impacts. Some moderation in temps will commence by
Thursday with finally above freezing levels noted. However, run at
closer to normal temps looking less likely.

 

[Niko]

LOL, you know GRR ain't going there no matter how many model runs trend wetter/deeper..DTX perhaps, but I'm sure these coordination calls with GRR will tamper enthusiasm for getting proper treatment with this system. It's super early, first real snow for most, and will be a rather dramatic flip to wintry conditions from this weekend's pleasant wx. 

Idk amigo, I just hope they don't disregard the ingredients coming together w this storm and instead, stick to the time of the year we are currently at and base it on that.

[Niko]

IWX

Some moderation in temps will commence by

Thursday with finally above freezing levels noted. However, run at

closer to normal temps looking less likely.

 

[Tom]

12z NAM total qpf trends....whoops???  It's conceivable this system will trend even wetter the way things are going.

 

 

 

[Money]

Why does it matter if you are under a winter storm warning or advisory? I don’t get it...

[Niko]

Clinton- What is your status w this storm?

[Tom]

This may be turning out to be a surprise I-80 special the way things are going...could our NE peeps also get involved???  That'd be pretty awesome for our Sub to get more people involved.  #sharethewealth

[Niko]

Gotta like the NAM the way it is ticking up those snow totals again in SEMI 

 

[jaster220]

LOL, you know GRR ain't going there no matter how many model runs trend wetter/deeper..DTX perhaps, but I'm sure these coordination calls with GRR will tamper enthusiasm for getting proper treatment with this system. It's super early, first real snow for most, and will be a rather dramatic flip to wintry conditions from this weekend's pleasant wx. 

 

"high-end advisory"?..for over a foot of snow 

 

We will

likely also need a high end advisory for the lake shore Monday

into Tuesday

with the focus mostly Monday night into Tuesday as

northwest to north winds of 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts result

in a dominant lake snow band that will only very slowly shift

toward the east. The heaviest snow will be over the Big and Little

Sable points and extreme western Allegan and Van Buren Counties. I

could see isolated location in extreme western Van Buren county

getting over a foot of snow.

[jaster220]

Why does it matter if you are under a winter storm warning or advisory? I don’t get it...

 

Why is there a difference between just a Wind Advisory, and a High Wind Warning?

 

 

What don't you get about "scale of impacts"? 

 

For me personally, it's also about the gov professionals that cover my region doing as good a job as possible wrt matching headlines to conditions. At which, they blow chunks way more often then they get it right. Not to mention, if it's only hitting their bottom tier of counties and not their immediate vicinity, they bias against more robust outcomes, and down-play legit impacts away from their little corner of the CWA. I can see other offices' performance with any given event to measure them against, so it's not like I'm being critical in a vacuum. And I'm hardly alone in my opinion wrt this.  

[jaster220]

This may be turning out to be a surprise I-80 special the way things are going...could our NE peeps also get involved???  That'd be pretty awesome for our Sub to get more people involved.  #sharethewealth

 

Man buddy, and you called it! Hat's off to ya on your LR and LRC efforts. You could market that to somebody, I know you could. 

[Hawkeye]

Even the central/western Iowa folks may end up with a nice surprise.  This is looking pretty darn good for Cedar Rapids.  A couple days ago most models had dried up completely.

[jaster220]

12z NAM total qpf trends....whoops???  It's conceivable this system will trend even wetter the way things are going.

 

 

 

 

Better late to the party then missing it completely, eh? haha. So, what's with the 12k having that nice broad swath of qpf/snowfall totals across SMI while the 3k has a much narrower band?

[jaster220]

@ Tom

 

It's conceivable this system will trend even wetter the way things are going.

 

=) 

 

Was thinking how over the years, these temporary relaxing then resurgence of arctic masses have led to some of the more historic storms. That window opens just long enough for organization and Wham! 

[jaster220]

Some moderation in temps will commence by

Thursday with finally above freezing levels noted. However, run at

closer to normal temps looking less likely.

 

 

Haha, you noticed that as well. 

[Niko]

Haha, you noticed that as well. 

[jaster220]

Another peek at the 6z HRDPS.

 

Really moist for most of SMI

 

 

Even the 10:1 snow map's eye candy

 

[Hawkeye]

12z ICON

 

[Clinton]

Clinton- What is your status w this storm?

Things are looking better that I may see an inch or maybe a tad more.

[Stormhunter87]

I like the trend of 2-3 inches but still have to see to believe. But congrats on those around the lakes. Looking super juicy for lake effect snow.

[Niko]

Things are looking better that I may see an inch or maybe a tad more.

There ya go bud. Also, this storm is trending wetter and wetter, so, do not be surprised if your totals are upped later this afternoon or sooner.

[Niko]

12z ICON

 

[Niko]

Another peek at the 6z HRDPS.

 

Really moist for most of SMI

 

20191110 6z HRDPS_qpf to h48.png

 

Even the 10:1 snow map's eye candy

 

20191110 6z HRDPS_10to1_Snowfall to h48.png

Superb amigo!!!!

[Sciascia]

Hey guys!

 

Haven’t been following this closely until today. This is a mostly tonight/tomorrow morning event, correct?

[Tom]

Hey guys!

 

Haven’t been following this closely until today. This is a mostly tonight/tomorrow morning event, correct?

Glad to see you back! Yup, it’s primarily and overnight event from about midnight till Noon but the worst of it looks to hit around rush hour.

[Clinton]

12z GFS I'm hanging by a thread lol.

 

[Clinton]

12z GFS

[Clinton]

12z RDPS

[Clinton]

The SREF Plumes have doubled the snowfall from previous run.

[Andie]

This will be a stunner of a front for November.

 

The National Weather Service is predicting that about 250 cold records will be established from the impact of this front.

 

Wow.

[Hawkeye]

12z Canadian

 

[Tom]

This will be a stunner of a front for November.

 

The National Weather Service is predicting that about 250 cold records will be established from the impact of this front.

 

Wow.

What is this like the 3rd Blue Norther of the Autumn?

[GDR]

Best thing to do would be throw out the gfs

[Minny_Weather]

Not sure what you mean. Latest HRDPS seems to give you about the same as there

I'm talking about runs that keep the highest totals just North of the state line.

[Hawkeye]

The HRRR is finally catching up to the other models.... now has 0.30" in Cedar Rapids with a few hours of snow to go.

[Tom]

High Rez models generally painting 2-6" across IA/IL/IN with higher potential over into MI....

 

 

 

[Iowawx]

This escalated quickly. Last I looked yesterday, Cedar Rapids was expecting an inch or less of snow. 

[westMJim]

Ikr, 6z HRDPS ups the amts further. Gets me to 7"/8" Kuchera. This is the way storms should always trend! IF ONLY

 

20191110 6z HRDPS_Snowfall to h48.png

 

 

 

Gotta like the NAM the way it is ticking up those snow totals again in SEMI 

 

 

If and that is always a big if,,,this plays out as some of the models are hinting at it would be very similar to the November 2nd to 3rd storm of 1966. And if so it would be a near record snow fall (one storm) record for much of southern lower Michigan for a November snow storm. I do not base any snow fall productions on just looking at a model map but we shall see.