Veteran's Day System

[Hawkeye]

UK is catching up as well, although it's still not as wet west through Iowa.

 

[St Paul Storm]

Good luck to all of you. You guys are killin it lately!

[Hawkeye]

Good luck to all of you. You guys are killin it lately!

 

I'm sure MSP's snow total will surge past my area this winter.

[hlcater]

Looking like a very solid 2-4” event from what looked like was certainly going to be a dusting. Should amplify the upcoming cold a little bit.

[Bryan1117]

I will gladly take 1 to 3 inches of snow from this system before the cold hits.

 

My family always has a little side bet for when the first official 1” of snow happens here, and I happened to pick today... so bring it on LOL.

[bud2380]

I would expect Winter Weather Advisories to be issues for a good chunk of DVN area

[jaster220]

I would expect Winter Weather Advisories to be issued for a good chunk of DVN area

 

Yet, in typical fashion, GRR hoists the old purple headline before even offices west of us have (who've posted maps calling for more btw). Same as last (insert number of choice) storms. 

 

Not to mention, decision hour always seems to come during a Sunday or holiday when the "B" team crew is on duty 

[jaster220]

I'm talking about runs that keep the highest totals just North of the state line.

 

Ahh 

[james1976]

I'm kind of on the edge but I'll take anything!

[Clinton]

I'm kind of on the edge but I'll take anything!

I'm right with ya.

[jaster220]

As every model (global-pick one, SR-pick any two) continues to increase qpf and impacts, my office snoozes on this fact, and ignores trends. 

 

From a poster elsewhere:

 

I do not know what is this 2-5" nonsense from GRR is.

 

[jaster220]

Nevermind! I see their problem. Riding the american guidance over the Euro. Or, in this case, only buying the Euro's solution "if" the NAM agrees.   I give up 

 

The 12Z NAM has come more in line with the consistent ECMWF

solution, increasing confidence for accums in srn Lwr MI Monday
morning, although the nrn extent of the appreciable accums and
travel impacts is still low confidence given expected sharp
cutoff on the nrn edge in FGEN set-up.

[bud2380]

And now the euro comes in drier this run. LOL. Down to just under .3” qpf. Oh well. Would still be 2-4”

[Hawkeye]

Yeah, a notable walk-back from the euro... by 30-40% in Iowa.  Still, 3" looks just about guaranteed here, which is pretty solid for early November.

[Madtown]

give me 2" and I'd be happy

[Hawkeye]

DVN has issued an advisory.

 

 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1257 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1256 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2019

Issued a Winter Weather Advisory for all of eastern Iowa and most
of west central and northwest Illinois for tonight through Monday
morning. Forecast confidence has increased that there will be
widespread snow amounts of 2 to 4 inches over east central Iowa
into northwest Illinois, where totals could reach 5 inches.
Amounts will be less over southeast Iowa and west central
Illinois, but 20 to 30 mph winds developing in the tight pressure
gradient and cold air advection flow will lead to widespread
drifting late tonight through the AM commute. This will likely
impact roadways and may keep hazardous travel conditions going
after the snow ends from NW to SE Monday morning.

[Clinton]

15z SREF plums

[bud2380]

NAM coming in pretty strong in eastern Iowa. Widespread 4-5”

[Hawkeye]

18z HRRR.... it has an e-w band popping along hw30 through Iowa by 6pm, but it doesn't sag the snow into Iowa City until 12am.

 

 

[snowstorm83]

Looks like OAX forecast and model consensus is 1-2” so no advisory. I do think it’s possible we end up with more with it being a night snowfall and temps well below freezing.

[Grizzcoat]

WWA for most of DMX CWA!!!

[Hawkeye]

NAM coming in pretty strong in eastern Iowa. Widespread 4-5”

 

The 12k NAM is about the same as 12z.  The 3k NAM is notably drier across Iowa, basically taking everyone down by a tenth.

[Minny_Weather]

CLE still hasn't issued any headlines but they'll probably issue a WWA any second now to be consistent with IWX and DTX. Looks like 3-5" is most likely here.

[St Paul Storm]

Wind whipped light snow here as the cold air filters in. Nice little surprise. None of the models showed this earlier.

[jcwxguy]

Looks like OAX forecast and model consensus is 1-2” so no advisory. I do think it’s possible we end up with more with it being a night snowfall and temps well below freezing.

wwa up and hoisted

[snowstorm83]

wwa up and hoisted

 

Oops. That comment didn't age well

[Minny_Weather]

wwa up and hoisted

That's an odd WWA. The only possible justification I can think of is the fact that they included freezing drizzle in the headline, cuz

[Minny_Weather]

Took long enough to pull the trigger.

 

 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
352 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2019

...Winter Weather Expected Monday into Wednesday Morning...

.Precipitation will overspread the area on Monday as low pressure
tracks northeast up the Ohio Valley. Precipitation will transition
to snow earlier in the day in Northwest Ohio as cooler air is
wrapped into the back of the system. As the system continues
eastward, remaining areas will transition to snow on Monday
evening. Several inches of snow are expected across Northeast Ohio
and Northwest Pennsylvania Monday night. By Tuesday, lake effect
snows will develop across the primary snowbelt region. Lake effect
snow may be heavy at times and will continue into Wednesday
morning before flow shifts any lingering bands out over Lake Erie.


OHZ003-006-017-110500-
/O.NEW.KCLE.WW.Y.0025.191111T1500Z-191112T0300Z/
Lucas-Wood-Hancock-
Including the cities of Toledo, Bowling Green, and Findlay
352 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5
inches.

* WHERE...Lucas, Wood and Hancock counties.

* WHEN...From 10 AM to 10 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures will hold nearly steady in the
lower 30s during the daytime hours on Monday before falling into
the 20s on Monday night. Winds will be out of the north at 10 to
15 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

The latest road conditions can be obtained from the Department of
Transportation web site.

[Iowawx]

New DVN snow forecast. 

[jaster220]

  I would call this "winter comes a month early!" Best of luck to all in the game..

 

 

(been busy getting all the car tires inflated, dry-gas in the tank, snow brushes in the cars, etc, etc..)

 

[Niko]

NOAA:

 

 

Both NAM and GFS have trended toward the ECMWF solution in showing
more amplification to the mid level trough over the western Great
Lakes, which will hold the mid level front and moist axis over Se Mi
through the afternoon. This system will have a respectable amount of
moisture being transported up the frontal slope with specific
humidities in the 2-3 g/kg range in the 800-700 mb layer. Liquid snow
ratios and snow flake size may not be ideal early in the event, but
as the cold air deepens across the area during the late
morning/afternoon, snow accumulation efficiency is expected to
improve. Despite this being an early season event, the recent cold
wx and gradual influx of arctic air on Monday will allow snow to
stick to untreated roads fairly efficiently. Based on recent trends
and synoptic scale liquid precip of a quarter to half inch, a winter
wx advisory will be issued for Monday for 3 to 5 inches total snow.

[jaster220]

As every model (global-pick one, SR-pick any two) continues to increase qpf and impacts, my office snoozes on this fact, and ignores trends. 

 

From a poster elsewhere:

 

From a Met that actually works at DTW

 

Chicago goes for 3-6, GRR's advisory looking worse and worse.

[Niko]

  I would call this "winter comes a month early!" Best of luck to all in the game..

 

20191110 CONUS Warning Map - Winter comes a month early.PNG

 

(been busy getting all the car tires inflated, dry-gas in the tank, snow brushes in the cars, etc, etc..)

I might have to do just that as well.

 

Just came back from my backgammon tournament   

[Niko]

From a Met that actually works at DTW

Here we go w the WWA. This will and should be a WSW.

[jaster220]

NOAA:

 

 

Both NAM and GFS have trended toward the ECMWF solution in showing

more amplification to the mid level trough over the western Great

Lakes, which will hold the mid level front and moist axis over Se Mi

through the afternoon. This system will have a respectable amount of

moisture being transported up the frontal slope with specific

humidities in the 2-3 g/kg range in the 800-700 mb layer. Liquid snow

ratios and snow flake size may not be ideal early in the event, but

as the cold air deepens across the area during the late

morning/afternoon, snow accumulation efficiency is expected to

improve. Despite this being an early season event, the recent cold

wx and gradual influx of arctic air on Monday will allow snow to

stick to untreated roads fairly efficiently. Based on recent trends

and synoptic scale liquid precip of a quarter to half inch, a winter

wx advisory will be issued for Monday for 3 to 5 inches total snow.

 

And that's Detroit region. Should be much less of an issue back my way. Let's see how this plays out. I may eat my words. GRR may make some headline adjustments. Or, we may just watch what part of their face the egg hits this time? 

[Niko]

And that's Detroit region. Should be much less of an issue back my way. Let's see how this plays out. I may eat my words. GRR may make some headline adjustments. Or, we may just watch what part of their face the egg hits this time? 

Exactly. Adjustments are coming, watch. Probably later this evening. WSW just to my east..2 counties.

[Madtown]

[indianajohn]

Wish we had a tavli tournament out my way...

 

I might have to do just that as well.

 

Just came back from my backgammon tournament

[Grizzcoat]

2-4" in grids here in C.IA. NWS downplayed this event as long as possible...

[Hawkeye]

It's interesting that DVN has the best snow centered south of Cedar Rapids.  The models are mostly over CR.