Veteran's Day System

[bud2380]

HRRR looks like it had the right idea with this band stalling out over highway 30.  I'm gonna be just south of the heaviest bands.  

[jaster220]

I’ll be happy with 1-2” here in Grand Rapids. We will get ours this winter. South and east of here can have it this time.

 

GR had a pretty snowy winter last year, didn't you?

[Niko]

I mentioned before that it was possible last-minute trends for a stronger system could mean CPC's map for Monday would be off by quite a bit as they had none of SMI getting into plowable snow amts. This seems to happen a lot the past few years, at least around here. Storms look like "meh" at d5 to d3, then they issue a map and things start trending up, lol

 

20191108 hazards_d3_7_contours.png

[jaster220]

Don't forget, it has been very cold during the last couple of days and even beyond that, so that being said, streets and sidewalks are already frozen, which should make the snow have no trouble sticking. Another factor is that arctic air will be rushing in during this snowstorm. My highs tomorrow remain in the 20s w snow, heavy at times. Temps by late pm to early evening will most likely be in the teens w snow still falling.

 

Not sure if it's been cold enough hours of each day to "freeze the ground" but this cold wave we got will go a long way to making things better than say my storm of 11/29/11 which fell on frying pan hot concrete. That had heavy rates going for it tho, without which most would've melted no doubt. 

[Niko]

@ Clinton and Jaster

 

Check out this craziness by NOAA I am 1 county west of a WSW, meanwhile, my forecast calls for 6"+ to fall n they have me in a WWA 

 

[Clinton]

@ Clinton and Jaster

 

Check out this craziness by NOAA I am 1 county west of a WSW, meanwhile, my forecast calls for 6"+ to fall n they have me in a WWA 

 

Thats wild, my office is always playing catch up but thats just crazy.

[Stacsh]

GR had a pretty snowy winter last year, didn't you?

Slightly above average around 81” i think. Mostly lake effect. Winds set up nice inland. I think this year the immediate lakeshore will benefit more.

[Clinton]

00z NAM is more organized for me, feeling better about my chances for some accumulation.

[Niko]

Thats wild, my office is always playing catch up but thats just crazy.

Very conservative.

[Niko]

00z NAM is more organized for me, feeling better about my chances for some accumulation.

[hlcater]

Trends aren’t great in Iowa City.

[Hawkeye]

00z 12k & 3k NAM

 

 

[Stormhunter87]

A little ahead of schedule. First band slowly working in. The temps have just collapsed. At 430 it was 47. Now its 33.

[hlcater]

Most models now agree that IC ends up on the “poor” side of the banding cutoff and radar seems to line up well with this. Should still see 2-3”, but Hiawatha could see 4-5.

[Hawkeye]

We peaked near 40º this afternoon, but it's down to 32º now as the snow begins.

[Andie]

High of 65 tomorrow before turning sharply to 35*.

Winds 25-35 mph. 50% chance of rain.

 

Winds gusts to 50 mph.

Low Monday night 25*.

 

The front everyone has been excited about will have no trouble plowing into the heart of Texas.

[bud2380]

DVN just shifted their snow graphic north a county or so. Still has 4-6” for both CR and Iowa City though

[bud2380]

I would expect totals in CR to be at least an inch or maybe 2 higher than Iowa city based on the radar just sitting over highway 30 and not moving south. Probably won’t see snow down here for a few hours yet

[East Dubzz]

Nice coating on the grass already.

[Niko]

12Z NAM looks sweet for SMI.....

[Iowawx]

Snow has been coming down for about an hour now. Heavy dusting on grass and elevated surfaces. Roads are wet for now. 

[Hawkeye]

HRRR is back up to 0.30-0.40" along hw30 in Iowa.

 

Cedar Rapids is at least beginning in a good spot with the initial band parked over the city.  There is no sign of the band lifting north like a few HRRR runs this evening showed.

 

The flakes were initially a good size, but they are smaller now.

[Minny_Weather]

Current radar trends are about 20 miles or so South of NAM which is actually really encouraging for me. Maybe I can pick up the extra inch that SE MI is trying to steal.

[jaster220]

0z NAM and RGEM both delivering 6" SLR/ 7" KCH here in Calhoun Cnty. That's pretty good agreement imho (my NWS grid currently totals up to 4.5", so let's see if the "hi-res" models can be trusted or are inflating things a bit?)

 

 

 

[hlcater]

 

Why is it that whenever I'm in CR, IC gets the better hit and whenever I'm in IC, CR gets the better hit? I don't understand this sorcery

[jaster220]

GRR saying things are a bit ahead of schedule here.

 

.UPDATE...
Issued at 905 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2019

I did raise POPs for tonight. Based on radar and model trends it
looks like the precipitation will move in a little sooner. Some
enhancement off of Saginaw Bay may support Gratiot county for
inclusion in the headlines. The wind direction will make all the
difference as far as where the enhanced moisture will go. Right
now the flow is northerly in that area which would angle the
moisture just east of of Gratiot. New guidance is still coming in
so will await before making changes to the headlines at this
time.

[Niko]

National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
937 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2019

.UPDATE...

Southeast Michigan now firmly within a cooling and slightly drier
post-frontal north-northeast gradient late this evening. Lingering
mid level frontal slope remains loosely organized this evening, the
lack of discernible ascent translating into simply an extensive low
stratus canopy and a few flurries locally as of 0230z. Modest pv
advection tied to lead weak shortwave energy working through portions
of Wisconsin will begin to engage this frontal slope going forward
overnight. Recent hi-res model guidance insistent on at least a lower
end response in terms of light snow development commencing across
southern Michigan during the early morning hours. This initial
activity could manifest in a few tenths of accumulation in some
locations.

Deeper fgen forcing and a corresponding increase in both snowfall
coverage and rates remain tied to the arrival of favorable upper jet
support - this evolution likely to commence within the 10z-14z
window mid morning. At the same time, reorientation of existing lake
aggregate thermal trough as the mean flow veers slightly will draw
the lake Huron moisture plume southward with time. While a more
imposing looking overlake thermodynamic profile does not emerge until
later tomorrow, some initial bands will start to encroach on the
thumb by the pre-dawn hours.

No meaningful changes planned with the update this evening for the
overnight period/introductory portion of this early season snowfall
event. A solid looking advisory event for most locations forthcoming
Monday with the fgen band. Appropriately quantifying and locating
the net downstream response from the lake effect contribution
remains a challenge - particularly late Monday and Monday night.
Model guidance continues to offer a myriad of outcomes, from
confining the bulk of the activity across the eastern thumb to
shifting bands well inland. This could certainly alter the back end
accumulation potential for areas generally east of I-75 down into the
northern Detroit suburbs.

[Hawkeye]

Final GFS, no change.

 

[bud2380]

Light snow is falling here despite nothing showing up on radar. Must not be any dry air to fight through.

[bud2380]

DVN has another AFD release explaining what is driving the snow in eastern Iowa. Pretty cool to see them sending out frequent updates

[jaster220]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
958 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2019

MIZ049-111515-
/O.CON.KDTX.WS.W.0003.191111T0900Z-191112T2100Z/
Huron-
Including the city of Bad Axe
958 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO
4 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 7 to
15 inches.

* WHERE...Huron County.

* WHEN...From 4 AM Monday to 4 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening
commute. Potential for significant drifting along the lakeshore.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...This may be a long duration event, with
still some uncertainty as to how long it may persist into
Tuesday. If lake effect bands do hold across portions of the
area as opposed to transitioning offshore, then two day total
snowfall in excess of 15 inches is not out of the question.

 

Huron Cnty is one of the largest in our state, but there's been so little commerce in "the Thumb" region of the Mitt since they lumbered off all the trees, that only one single city of note is listed in the text!  Take my word, if you never go there you haven't missed a thing

[Niko]

Jaster- are you temps falling rapidly? Mine are crashing. Arctic air is rushing in amigo!

[Hawkeye]

Boy, this east-west band of snow is not moving an inch.  The southern edge of the green on radar is parked on hw30.  The wind is from the north, so that helps Cedar Rapids in this case.  It continues to snow decently here.

 

The temp is down to 30º.  Snow is just beginning to dust the pavement in spots.

[Niko]

Man, GFS is AWESOME.

[Madtown]

28 here....mkx concerned more moderate bands look to move further north and that totals are to low

[jaster220]

Jaster- are you temps falling rapidly? Mine are crashing. Arctic air is rushing in amigo!

 

Down 6 deg's since 5 pm, not exactly a crash at 1 deg/hr. Hi-res models get me to 32F around 1 am. Prolly drop quicker when precip starts

[Hawkeye]

03z HRRR keeps this initial band pretty much stationary for several hours.  It doesn't sag the snow into Iowa City until 3am.  

 

It has another 0.40" on top of what we had before 9pm.

 

Cedar Rapids has been rather lucky so far this season.  I hope the luck continues when bigger storms pop up this winter.

[jaster220]

Man, GFS is AWESOME.

 

yep, 8" KCH for me. 

 

First of this season, and hopefully first of many such maps. (Niko, grats on a two-mapper event to kick off your season)

 

[jaster220]

Last post of the night for this guy, first legit headline and only Nov 10th. Remember all those hot days in Sept? 

 

 

 

 

 

[Grizzcoat]

definitely snowing (albeit light) outside the radar returns as previously mentioned. Started snowing with RH at %75. ***edit *** really picking up just NW of DSM