Chewbacca Defense Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 Positive splat test here in Bellingham at 3-400 ft 4 Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 Do you mind explaining? I have yet to learn what to look for with these thingsThe animated satellite to me shows the system moving very quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 Wednesday morning to Thursday night on the 18z: 1 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 Nice 18z run. I hope this puts a smile on people's faces! 8 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 This is just incorrect. Its will be a classic c-zone on Sunday evening. The low departs to the east and there is a convergence of wind from the north and the southwest around the Olympics. Well that's what the ECMWF is showing, not what the 18z GFS is showing. But in both cases the difference being outflow spilling out of the Fraser Valley. Typically a c-zone is triggered by NW flow down the Juan de Fuca meeting up with SW flow from the Chehalis Gap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 Wednesday morning to Thursday night on the 18z: gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_fh96-132.gif This is looking a lot better. Even the 12z Euro was starting to move toward this outcome. It stays cold for a bit afterward too so we can enjoy it if it happens. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
runninthruda206 Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 And just like that, we're back hahaha!.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 Well that's what the ECMWF is showing, not what the 18z GFS is showing. But in both cases the difference being outflow spilling out of the Fraser Valley. Typically a c-zone is triggered by NW flow down the Juan de Fuca meeting up with SW flow from the Chehalis Gap. Yeah....Arctic air will be in play this time. Really ups the stakes. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fubario Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 Nice 18z run. I hope this puts a smile on people's faces!Ok, Tim's turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 And just like that, we're back hahaha!.. Nice to see the momentum shift at this juncture. We might be just fine. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 Well that's what the ECMWF is showing, not what the 18z GFS is showing. But in both cases the difference being outflow spilling out of the Fraser Valley. Typically a c-zone is triggered by NW flow down the Juan de Fuca meeting up with SW flow from the Chehalis Gap.Its the same result. It's a very traditional c-zone signature. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 Ok, Tim's turn. I think he conceded the 18z is better, at least for the mid week thing. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 Nice 18z run. I hope this puts a smile on people's faces!zoom out even more and it looks ever better 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 You don't think the Monday evening system has much potential? Not really. Maybe a brief isothermal situation east of I-5 with the quick NW wind surge. Probably will have a tough time going below 34 or so at the valley floor. You'll do well, but then even for the central valley I think the potential with the mid-week storm is just better below 500'. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van city Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 Definitely more snow for the Seattle area on Thursday... Always 5 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 I think he conceded the 18z is better, at least for the mid week thing.I am not arguing... looked better to me. I posted a couple improved snowfall maps. Matt made some comments. Not me. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 Nice to see the momentum shift at this juncture. We might be just fine. I don't think one slightly improved run constitutes a trend or a momentum shift. Especially when it's the 18z, which as dewey pointed out, has been consistently running cooler than the 12z or 00z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van city Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 Nice 18z run. I hope this puts a smile on people's faces!Until next run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 Tomorrow’s,18z guys. And Tuesday night’s 00z, to a lesser extent. My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 And if the 18Z looked worse... I would have mentioned that as well. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 Always 5 days away.Did you get any snow there Friday? Not sure of your elevation, but looked like much of Vancouver was likely to get some. I'm also quite sure you'll get snow tomorrow afternoon. 1 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van city Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 Did you get any snow there Friday? Not sure of your elevation, but looked like much of Vancouver was likely to get some. I'm also quite sure you'll get snow tomorrow afternoon.Sloppy inch, does it count? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 I don't think one slightly improved run constitutes a trend or a momentum shift. Especially when it's the 18z, which as dewey pointed out, has been consistently running cooler than the 12z or 00z. Fair enough. It does kind of match up with the track record of the early cold events we had though. Those all featured a last minute improvement late in the game and then verification was even slightly better than runs less than a day out. At this juncture just a small improving trend could have big implications. Can't wait to see what the 0z runs show. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
runninthruda206 Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 What time does the 18z euro run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van city Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 Sloppy inch, does it count?It all counts! Assuming you don't have much elevation, then? Saw some pictures that looked like 4-5 inches from the hills in Vancouver. I would think you'd get 3-5" tomorrow which won't melt for for quite a while. 1 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 Tomorrow’s,18z guys. And Tuesday night’s 00z, to a lesser extent. does the UKMET run an 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christensen87 Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 Winter Storm Watch! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 Jim, you promised me Historic Cold snap that I have never seen before. What happened? The Alberta PV was forecasted to drive further south with earlier model runs. All of the models showed that very cold scenario a couple of days ago. Kind of a bummer. I was ready for some face stinging cold. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 does the UKMET run an 18zIf it doesn’t it should. On a related note, if I were in the model business I’d do my runs at 5z, 11z, 17z and 23z. Get a jump on the competition! 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 Not really. Maybe a brief isothermal situation east of I-5 with the quick NW wind surge. Probably will have a tough time going below 34 or so at the valley floor. You'll do well, but then even for the central valley I think the potential with the mid-week storm is just better below 500'. Makes sense. I agree about the mid-week system. I will likely be warm nosed at some point. It looks like it would turn back to snow after about 12-24 hours as cooler air aloft works back in, though by then it is just showers. My expectations up here haven't really changed much for the mid-week storm. Even when the models were showing highs in the mid-20s at SLE they were showing at least brief periods in the 33/34 range up here. We just are not typically as cold in outflow based situations. Even in December 1968 the high at Silver Falls was 30 the day Salem had a high of 16. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 If it doesn’t it should. On a related note, if I were in the model business I’d do my runs at 5z, 11z, 17z and 23z. Get a jump on the competition! You see two models on the shelf one says 12z one says 11z which one do you choose? Duhhh the 11z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 Winter Storm Watch just issued for most of Western Washington, including Seattle. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Seattle WA246 PM PST Sat Jan 11 2020WAZ507-509-511-556-558-559-121200-/O.NEW.KSEW.WS.A.0002.200112T2300Z-200113T1400Z/Everett and Vicinity-Tacoma Area-Hood Canal Area-Bellevue and Vicinity-Seattle and Vicinity-Bremerton and Vicinity-including Everett, Lynnwood, Marysville, Stanwood, Tacoma, Fife,DuPont, Puyallup, Shelton, Seabeck, Belfair, Brinnon, Bellevue,Bothell, Kenmore, Mill Creek, Clearview, Kirkland, Newcastle,Redmond, Sammamish, Issaquah, Seattle, White Center, Tukwila,Renton, Burien, Des Moines, Kent, Federal Way, Bremerton,Poulsbo, and Indianola246 PM PST Sat Jan 11 2020...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHLATE SUNDAY NIGHT...* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of a traceto 2 inches possible with locally up to 4 inches.* WHERE...Seattle, Everett, Bellevue, Bremerton, Tacoma andvicinity.* WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night.* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A trace to 2 inches of snowfall possiblewith lowest amounts near the sound. Higher amounts possible,locally up to 4 inches, if heavier showers develop. Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 Winter Storm Watch! Yes indeed! Even with the C-Zone probably being north of where I live it appears there will be sufficient moisture for a more widespread snow event for the Puget Sound area late Sunday night. We could see a sliding C-zone happen too. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 A nice coolish trough late next week in the long range. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
runninthruda206 Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 WSW!!! Please work in our favor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 Definitely more snow for the Seattle area on Thursday... Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 Winter Storm Watch just issued for most of Western Washington, including Seattle. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Seattle WA246 PM PST Sat Jan 11 2020 WAZ507-509-511-556-558-559-121200-/O.NEW.KSEW.WS.A.0002.200112T2300Z-200113T1400Z/Everett and Vicinity-Tacoma Area-Hood Canal Area-Bellevue and Vicinity-Seattle and Vicinity-Bremerton and Vicinity-including Everett, Lynnwood, Marysville, Stanwood, Tacoma, Fife,DuPont, Puyallup, Shelton, Seabeck, Belfair, Brinnon, Bellevue,Bothell, Kenmore, Mill Creek, Clearview, Kirkland, Newcastle,Redmond, Sammamish, Issaquah, Seattle, White Center, Tukwila,Renton, Burien, Des Moines, Kent, Federal Way, Bremerton,Poulsbo, and Indianola246 PM PST Sat Jan 11 2020 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHLATE SUNDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of a traceto 2 inches possible with locally up to 4 inches. * WHERE...Seattle, Everett, Bellevue, Bremerton, Tacoma andvicinity. * WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A trace to 2 inches of snowfall possiblewith lowest amounts near the sound. Higher amounts possible,locally up to 4 inches, if heavier showers develop.Kiss. Of. Death. No joke. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 You see two models on the shelf one says 12z one says 11z which one do you choose? Duhhh the 11z! 2 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 Winter Storm Watch just issued for most of Western Washington, including Seattle. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Seattle WA246 PM PST Sat Jan 11 2020 WAZ507-509-511-556-558-559-121200-/O.NEW.KSEW.WS.A.0002.200112T2300Z-200113T1400Z/Everett and Vicinity-Tacoma Area-Hood Canal Area-Bellevue and Vicinity-Seattle and Vicinity-Bremerton and Vicinity-including Everett, Lynnwood, Marysville, Stanwood, Tacoma, Fife,DuPont, Puyallup, Shelton, Seabeck, Belfair, Brinnon, Bellevue,Bothell, Kenmore, Mill Creek, Clearview, Kirkland, Newcastle,Redmond, Sammamish, Issaquah, Seattle, White Center, Tukwila,Renton, Burien, Des Moines, Kent, Federal Way, Bremerton,Poulsbo, and Indianola246 PM PST Sat Jan 11 2020 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHLATE SUNDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of a traceto 2 inches possible with locally up to 4 inches. * WHERE...Seattle, Everett, Bellevue, Bremerton, Tacoma andvicinity. * WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A trace to 2 inches of snowfall possiblewith lowest amounts near the sound. Higher amounts possible,locally up to 4 inches, if heavier showers develop.I wouldn't say most, maybe most populated areas but nowhere near most of the westside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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