Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Deweydog]

[bainbridgekid]

Snow overnight on Sunday... a shift north with the c-zone from the 12Z run.    I think you are golden up there.  

 

 

I've been confident this would happen for the last 3 days. 

 

Now it just needs to actually happen! 

[TacomaWaWx]

At 12z Tuesday the 516 thickness line is in Tacoma vs Seattle on the 12z run.  At least this thing will be wintry.

If there wasn't all those crazy gfs runs last week and the models had been showing a solution close to this... everyone wouldn't be so bummed. If we would have had this happen in mid December following the split flow we would be jumping up and down just to have some snow and cold. Crazy gfs runs set the expectations too high.

[snow_wizard]

The mid week low is weaker and more suppressed yet on this run.  That could end up being the big one for Seattle.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Weather or not it is cold enough at the valley floor, the 18z tracks the low perfectly for the Central Valley on Monday.

[snow_wizard]

 

 

What is not true about that statement?

[snow_wizard]

If there wasn't all those crazy gfs runs last week and the models had been showing a solution close to this... everyone wouldn't be so bummed. If we would have had this happen in mid December following the split flow we would be jumping up and down just to have some snow and cold. Crazy gfs runs set the expectations too high.

 

Yeah...this is shaping up to be far from terrible.

[Jesse]

What is not true about that statement?

He might be just a little punchy after his #1 top paying client got accurately called out by the admin of this site for the umpteenth time.

[snow_wizard]

No doubt this run is colder than the 12z.  Thicknesses are lower for an extended stetch vs the 12z.

[TT-SEA]

He might be just a little punchy after his #1 top paying client got accurately called out by the admin of this site for the umpteenth time.

Focus obsessively on Matt's opinion as usual.

[snow_wizard]

Loving the trend on the mid week low.  This could be gold for some places.  Much less ridiculous on the cross Cascade gradients as well.

[BLI snowman]

Yeah...this is shaping up to be far from terrible.

 

Everyone will forget their model pullback angst once the flakes start flying.

[bainbridgekid]

Loving the trend on the mid week low.  This could be gold for some places.  Much less ridiculous on the cross Cascade gradients as well.

The weaker influx of cold air and less extreme high pressure in BC and Eastern WA could actually work in our favor for that.

[snow_wizard]

Thicknesses still lower Wednesday night vs the 12z.

[snow_wizard]

The weaker influx of cold air and less extreme high pressure in BC and Eastern WA could actually work in our favor for that.

 

There could be a silver lining to the less intense cold for sure.

[Deweydog]

What is not true about that statement?

There’s been a fairly meteoric retreat across the board with regard to the continental air mass and its effects south of the border. Taking one 18z (aside from tomorrow’s) and declaring the end to such flux is pretty silly.

[Gradient Keeper]

The Kona Low thing is dumb.

 

Sorry Rob.

In Kona we trust!

 

I think it is funny when people try to identify any low withing 1000 miles of Hawaii as a "Kona Low."

Yeah. It's just a cut-off low.

 

I think it cuts both ways. W7ENK is one of the nicest most genuine people I have ever met in person. On the other hand he pretty much cut me out of his life because we differed on the 2016 election, which does line up with the online persona. 

That is pathetic, but I am not surprised.

 

Jesus h Christ this is probably the worst I've seen this place. I guess we've all gone to throwing personal insults at people because everyone's upset that this won't turn out as good as they thought? Time to go kick some puppies or steal ice cream from some little kids I guess.

If people "meltdown" over the weather when it doesn't go our way I recommend they take time off and find perspective. If this doesn't pan out, yeah it will suck, but it's just not a big deal. If one gets their hopes up too much and sometimes unrealistically so yeah model riding can be brutal for sure.

 

You know most of the negativity I remember from there was just people doing some jr high school style cyber bullying of Rob. But I didn't pay super close attention back then.

That's pretty accurate. It was every single day and night. It didn't matter if I just stuck to analysis and ignored them, or if I dished it back. They didn't stop for several years. I think the worst part is i wasn't just some random poster. I was the leading poster and analyst. Mark allowed it. He didn't care. Zero respect. Due to that his Blog quickly became a ghost town. It's why I decided to create my Facebook weather group back in 2011.

 

I think Tim relishes in the idea of everyone getting **** on and coming down off their highs. Misery loves company?

Maybe.

 

Tim's wife made the cold go away.

Plausible.

 

Lol just when I thought things were calming down I log back on and boom more drama!

I wouldn't expect anything less.

 

00z GFS in 5 hours 19 minutes

 

[TT-SEA]

Definitely more snow for the Seattle area on Thursday... 

 

[Requiem]

Thicknesses still lower Wednesday night vs the 12z.

I think Seattle will do fine, but Portland is still very iffy at this point.

[TacomaWaWx]

Not too bad of a run. 12z wasn't even terrible IMO just not as good as several days ago.

[TT-SEA]

I think Seattle will do fine, but Portland is still very iffy at this point.

 

 

ECMWF says just the opposite... I would not give hope in Portland and that is being 100% serious.

[MikeInEverett]

This is probably the ugliest I’ve ever seen this forum in the five years I’ve been on here.

 

These big busts like to happen in the month of January. Some of us should at least see something worthwhile still at least.

[snow_wizard]

Some very notable changes on this run and all for the better.

[snow_wizard]

There’s been a fairly meteoric retreat across the board with regard to the continental air mass and its effects south of the border. Taking one 18z (aside from tomorrow’s) and declaring the end to such flux is pretty silly.

 

I was just saying we have probably seen the end of it trending even milder.  Not saying it's going to go back to epic.

[HighlandExperience]

Soe very notable changes on this run and all for the better.

Seems snowier for Puget Sound

[Rubus Leucodermis]

NWS is still saying I should see 3-5" here tomorrow. They have been remarkably consistent with that amount, sticking with it for over 24 hours. It’s higher than what any model has forecast (though there are some model runs forecasting the low end of that amount). Maybe the mets know something the models don’t?

 

The forecast time of the rain/snow transition has been pushed back… by a whole hour.

[Requiem]

ECMWF says just the opposite... I would not give hope in Portland and that is being 100% serious.

I’m not giving up hope of course, and I’ll admit that the GFS is slightly better. Still, hopefully that moderation trend is over.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

18z continues the clear trend to moisten up the CZ tomorrow night. Makes sense with the slower progression of cold air.

 

For all the hand-wringing, I still think this is going to be a solid snow event for much of Western Washington.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_fh36_trend.gif

 

The gradients there would certainly support a transitional snow event. Sunday evening still has decent potential, hopefully this keeps up on the 0z.

[BLI snowman]

ECMWF says just the opposite... I would not give hope in Portland and that is being 100% serious.

 

Wednesday into early Thursday is our real window here. Still has some decent potential for a metro-wide snowstorm.

[runninthruda206]

If that gfs run verifies for Seattle I’ll take it now that my expectations are way lower. I’d definitely be happy

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Snow overnight on Sunday... a shift north with the c-zone from the 12Z run.    I think you are golden up there.  

 

 

Can you even call that a c-zone? There's certainly convergence in there but it's being triggered by the outflow not onshore flow.

[Deweydog]

I was just saying we have probably seen the end of it trending even milder. Not saying it's going to go back to epic.

The 18z has run a little cold the last few days, for whatever reason. Doesn’t mean you’re wrong, but there’s not much to suggest you’re right.

 

Don’t get me wrong, that next few days will be pretty fun for a lot of people.

[Phil]

[TT-SEA]

Can you even call that a c-zone? There's certainly convergence in there but it's being triggered by the outflow not onshore flow.

 

 

This is just incorrect.

 

Its will be a classic c-zone on Sunday evening.  The low departs to the east and there is a convergence of wind from the north and the southwest around the Olympics.  

 

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The mid week low is weaker and more suppressed yet on this run.  That could end up being the big one for Seattle.

 

Doesn't really look like much. Some cool onshore flow comes in later. 

 

Tuesday looking like a cold showery day with 500' snow levels in NW Oregon.

[GHweatherChris]

Looking at the satellite it almost appears as though tomorrows system is running ahead of schedule.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Definitely more snow for the Seattle area on Thursday... 

 

 

2-3" up here with cold onshore flow. 

[Phil]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wednesday into early Thursday is our real window here. Still has some decent potential for a metro-wide snowstorm.

 

You don't think the Monday evening system has much potential?

[runninthruda206]

Looking at the satellite it almost appears as though tomorrows system is running ahead of schedule.

 

 

Do you mind explaining? I have yet to learn what to look for with these things