Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Kind of a low bar for a winter storm watch...

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Phil]

With the current SSW in progress, I would guess we will have another shot at something late this month or in early Feb. The ECMWF hints the current MJO wave could peter out during week two and try to re-emerge over the Maritime Continent again in a few weeks. If the MJO stays strong it is pretty likely it will eventually get into a good position to favor Western troughing once again. Pretty likely the next round would have more of a high latitude blocking component to it given the SSW.

It isn’t a SSW..transient wave-1 then a return to the baratropic structure. Maybe mid-February could get interesting in the strat, but there was too much broad Aleutian ridging this go around for favorable wave driving.

[TT-SEA]

Yes indeed!

 

Even with the C-Zone probably being north of where I live it appears there will be sufficient moisture for a more widespread snow event for the Puget Sound area late Sunday night. We could see a sliding C-zone happen too.

The problem for the Seattle area is that the SW wind might go all the way into Monday afternoon.  More of a cold onshore situation down here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Kiss. Of. Death.

 

No joke.

 

IDK I think that trace will verify most places. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

45F and cloudy but dry enough for the kiddos to be outside.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It isn’t a SSW..transient wave-1 then a return to the baratropic structure. Maybe mid-February could get interesting in the strat, but there was too much broad Aleutian ridging this go around for favorable wave driving.

Unfortunately a mid-February SSW isn't going to do much for people below 1000' if it takes several weeks for the effects to be felt. Might as well save it for next winter at that point. 

[TT-SEA]

Kind of a low bar for a winter storm watch...

 

Really is.

[Phil]

Kind of a low bar for a winter storm watch...

What are the thresholds for a WSW out there? I’ve never seen a “trace” of snow mentioned in one of those before.

[BLI snowman]

Kind of a low bar for a winter storm watch...

 

 

Yeah, don't think I've ever seen that before. Maybe in AL.

[TT-SEA]

What are the thresholds for a WSW out there? I’ve never seen a “trace” of snow mentioned in one of those before.

Its pretty comical.

[BLI snowman]

Makes sense. 

 

I agree about the mid-week system. I will likely be warm nosed at some point. It looks like it would turn back to snow after about 12-24 hours as cooler air aloft works back in, though by then it is just showers. My expectations up here haven't really changed much for the mid-week storm. Even when the models were showing highs in the mid-20s at SLE they were showing at least brief periods in the 33/34 range up here. 

 

We just are not typically as cold in outflow based situations. Even in December 1968 the high at Silver Falls was 30 the day Salem had a high of 16. 

 

 

12z GEM was a really weird wrinkle with the mid-week storm. Still a decently wide range of possibilities.

[runninthruda206]

It does seem quite odd.. is there something they are seeing that we arent?

[SnarkyGoblin]

Kiss. Of. Death.

 

No joke.

Yes, let's definitely not listen to the professional meteorologists.  Let's only listen to strangers on the internet.  

 

Experience, tools, and education be damned!

[bainbridgekid]

Kind of a low bar for a winter storm watch...

First snow of the year always gets more warning in locations that get consistent snow.

 

Maybe after last February they think that's us?

 

Really though I think it has more to do with the colder air and potential for icy roads late tomorrow night into Monday morning. 5" of 33 degree snow doesn't have nearly the impact as 2" of 30 degree snow.

[TT-SEA]

Yes, let's definitely not listen to the professional meteorologists. Let's only listen to strangers on the internet.

 

Experience, tools, and education be damned!

I am saying that the NWS going all in and issuing a WSW has often been a jinx.

 

It just has.

[Christensen87]

I don’t know. My gut feeling is that we’ll get more snow tomorrow evening than most people are thinking. Either way, it’ll be fun to watch. GO HAWKS!

[Weather1011]

Focus obsessively on Matt's opinion as usual.

Trolling is bad

[bainbridgekid]

I'd love to see how the 18z Euro handles tomorrow night when it comes out for anyone with access.

[bainbridgekid]

I am saying that the NWS going all in and issuing a WSW has often been a jinx.

 

It just has.

They also didn't even issue an advisory till the snow was already accumulating with the first big storm on Feb. 3rd last year.

 

I remember thinking it was crazy how much they were downplaying things.

 

I ended up getting 8" and Seattle had enough to close UW for a day or two.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

FWIW the Arctic front seems to be on schedule moving through the BC interior. Williams Lake has fallen from 25F to 13F in the past few hours with a strong northerly wind. 

[TT-SEA]

Trolling is bad

 

 

Well I spend an inordinate amount of time on here trying to post meaningful and informative things.   

 

We all troll at times.... at least the regulars do.    But I certainly don't make that the focus my input on this forum.    

 

Some people will seemingly ignore 100 positive or informative posts to highlight and focus on a post they perceive as trolling.   

[TT-SEA]

I'd love to see how the 18z Euro handles tomorrow night when it comes out for anyone with access.

 

 

Usually comes out after 4 p.m.

[Weather1011]

[bainbridgekid]

Its pretty comical.

I don't think so.

 

There is enough risk for highly populated areas to get several inches to warrant the Watch IMO. Regardless of other areas likely getting very little.

 

Going to be a stressful evening of radar watching, but I like my chances of getting 3-4" here.

[TT-SEA]

[Weather1011]

Ohhhh I definitely troll.

 

But I also love tracking weather and try to keep that the focus.

Well hopefully the forum won't go into full melt down mode.

[TT-SEA]

I don't think so.

 

There is enough risk for highly populated areas to get several inches to warrant the Watch IMO. Regardless of other areas likely getting very little.

 

Going to be a stressful evening of radar watching, but I like my chances of getting 3-4" here.

I just think its comical to headline a WSW with a trace to 2 inches. This is not Miami. Everyone in the Seattle area had significant snow just a few months ago. People know how it works.

[Requiem]

Thoughts on snow totals for PDX, anyone?

[bainbridgekid]

I just think its comical to headline a WSW with a trace to 2 inches. This is not Miami. Everyone in the Seattle area had significant snow just a few months ago. People know how it works.

I think they got (rightfully) criticized for underplaying that snow till it was too late and had already begun and are overcompensating a bit.

 

Like I said, they didn't even issue an advisory for the storm on the 3rd till I already had a couple inches on the ground and that ended up shutting down much of the region for a couple days.

[Deweydog]

Thoughts on snow totals for PDX, anyone?

T-6”

 

Pick your model and they’ll generally support either end of that spectrum. Anyone narrowing things down beyond that is just guessing.

 

Snow forecasting is HARD.

[TT-SEA]

The radar tomorrow evening might look similar to what it looks like now based on the ECMWF.

 

[MossMan]

I just think its comical to headline a WSW with a trace to 2 inches. This is not Miami. Everyone in the Seattle area had significant snow just a few months ago. People know how it works.

I think it’s because there is a chance of a stalled pscz and possibly more moisture in general like some of the models have been showing. Good chance that someone gets hammered with much more than what is being shown (November 2006) and they know that is a possibility.

[Deweydog]

The best surprise snowstorms are the ones that are forecast well in advance.

[MossMan]

A N-NW wind is whipping at my place currently!

 

39 degrees and cloudy.

.57” so far on the day.

[MossMan]

The radar tomorrow evening might look similar to what it looks like now based on the ECMWF.

 

Wrong. Nothing currently over my house.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A N-NW wind is whipping at my place currently!

 

39 degrees and cloudy.

.57” so far on the day.

 

Drizzle and 37 here with calm winds. 0.70" of rain on the day. Going to be very close to snow tonight. 

[TT-SEA]

I think it’s because there is a chance of a stalled pscz and possibly more moisture in general like some of the models have been showing. Good chance that someone gets hammered with much more than what is being shown (November 2006) and they know that is a possibility.

 

 

This is not going to be an arctic front tomorrow night.   The heavy snow will be isolated in a c-zone.   

 

I think an overrunning system that brings snow to everyone equally is a better candidate for a full WSW.  

[TT-SEA]

Wrong. Nothing currently over my house.

 

 

There will be soon enough.   

[MossMan]

This is not going to be an arctic front tomorrow night. The heavy snow will be isolated in a c-zone.

 

I think an overrunning system that brings snow to everyone equally is a better candidate for a full WSW.

Cliff Mass is still calling it one.