Pacific Northwest Weather -June 2023

[BLI snowman]

9 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

100˚F happens multiple times per summer in PDX. Has to be 105 or more for it to qualify as extreme heat.

101 on the 4th would break PDX's daily record by 4 degrees. Downtown Portland's record for the 4th is only 96, over a 150 year history.

And 100+ happening multiple times per summer in Portland is a pretty recent phenomenon.  

Edited June 29, 2023 by BLI snowman

[SnowWillarrive]

22 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

100˚F happens multiple times per summer in PDX. Has to be 105 or more for it to qualify as extreme heat.

PDX and Willamette valley turning into Death Valley due to climate change. 

[Phil]

3 hours ago, Eugene-5SW said:

That's kind of what I was trying to say.

"Deniers" sometimes cherry-pick rural stations that haven't experienced much warming to support a contention that "it's all just UHI," and "doomers" sometimes cherry-pick urban stations where UHI is definitely a factor to support extreme projections that all the world's ice is going to melt in 5 years or whatever.

As is often the case, the truth is probably somewhere in the middle.

I agree with this, for the most part.

A lot of those rural stations with no warming (or even slight cooling) are located in the central US, where dewpoints have increased significantly over the past 50+ years, in response to both natural and anthropogenic factors. So a larger proportion of radiative forcing goes into latent heating vs sensible heating those regions. It’s why I keep a detailed record of dews/specific humidity and relative humidity as well as temperature data and insolation.

There is so much that surface station data *doesn’t* tell you, it’s a fools errand to cherry-pick one station and make extrapolations.

[Phil]

2023 gonna 2023. Regime ain’t breaking. SW US ftw.

 

[Phil]

New EPS is almost universally in agreement with -NAO idea in July. Back to the pre-2013 pattern up in the NATL, at least this year.

[Phil]

4 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Same link as the regular EPS or somewhere else?

Is this the upgraded version?

https://maps.weatherbell.com/view/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg?d=namer&p=z500_anom

 

 

Sorry missed this. Yeah same link. And weeklies are already up as well!

[Phil]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

I would like to point out ahead of this warm spell... and in light of the UHI discussion... that we are currently in an ice age period and have the needle buried in terms of relative cold over the last 500 million years.   Most of that time period has been warmer to much warmer than it is today.   Big picture!   

And the Holocene interglacial probably has another few thousand years left in the tank, then it’s ice time again. Maybe 5000 years at most.

A lot of wishful thinking re: skipped ice age due to CO2/dampened precession of equinoxes, but that’s because many still believe the outdated/wrong theory that the glacial cycle is driven by the summer solstice insolation peak at 65N. It’s horseshit.

In reality it’s driven by obliquity setting the meridional temp gradient & seasonal cycle, which modulates poleward moisture transport via eddy fluxes and a slew of other circulatory components/climate forcing variables (indirectly). Arguably, a warmer/moister globe (in situ) will more easily undergo glacial inception under low obliquity. We’re not there yet, but will be in <5000 years.

[ShawniganLake]

Haven’t had any morning marine layer up this way the past 4 days.  Just solid sunshine with afternoon highs between 76 and 80F. 

[TT-SEA]

Very warm ECMWF run.   

[iFred]

3 hours ago, Phil said:

And the Holocene interglacial probably has another few thousand years left in the tank, then it’s ice time again. Maybe 5000 years at most.

A lot of wishful thinking re: skipped ice age due to CO2/dampened precession of equinoxes, but that’s because many still believe the outdated/wrong theory that the glacial cycle is driven by the summer solstice insolation peak at 65N. It’s horseshit.

In reality it’s driven by obliquity setting the meridional temp gradient & seasonal cycle, which modulates poleward moisture transport via eddy fluxes and a slew of other circulatory components/climate forcing variables (indirectly). Arguably, a warmer/moister globe (in situ) will more easily undergo glacial inception under low obliquity. We’re not there yet, but will be in <5000 years.

I see Ice Age 2017 isn’t off the table yet!

[T-Town]

55 degrees with some fog this morning. 

[TT-SEA]

Sunny start to the day here again.   Going to be another gorgeous day.

My sister and her family are coming on Sunday from San Diego and it looks like they are going to have a warm trip.   But they will be in Bellingham for part of the week and it won't be as hot up there.   Planning a boating outing with them on the 4th and my son said he is going to get the boat launched early that day and wait for us because it will be challenging to even get on the lake by noon given the holiday and the heat.

[MossMan]

24 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Sunny start to the day here again.   Going to be another gorgeous day.

My sister and her family are coming on Sunday from San Diego and it looks like they are going to have a warm trip.   But they will be in Bellingham for part of the week and it won't be as hot up there.   Planning a boating outing with them on the 4th and my son said he is going to get the boat launched early that day and wait for us because it will be challenging to even get on the lake by noon given the holiday and the heat.

Yeah I would want nothing to do with a boat launch after about 9am on the 4th. 
With the weather the way it’s going to be, it’s going to be insane! 

ONCE AGAIN GET OFF MY LAWN (or boat launch) YOU YOUNG PUNKS (and the drunk out of their minds 50 and 60 year olds as well) 

Now yesterday morning at the lake…That was amazing. Nobody was around.

I will say I do love the people watching from the comfort of our dock and our driveway on the 4th… The people that don’t know anything about the water are out on the water, and drunk 50 year olds stumbling down the street is also quite entertaining so we have a 360 degree view of constant entertainment on the 4th! And since our place in on the narrow peninsula I can just watch the road from the back yard and see the other side of the lake at the same time, so I can watch the land and water stupidness at at once! Kind of sad that I won’t be there for the utter insanity that comes at dusk since I will be at home with a terrified dog. 

[ShawniganLake]

61F after a low of 55.  Blue skies with some high clouds 

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Yeah I would want nothing to do with a boat launch after about 9am on the 4th. 
With the weather the way it’s going to be, it’s going to be insane! 

ONCE AGAIN GET OFF MY LAWN (or boat launch) YOU YOUNG PUNKS (and the drunk out of their minds 50 and 60 year olds as well) 

Now yesterday morning at the lake…That was amazing. Nobody was around.

I will say I do love the people watching from the comfort of our dock and our driveway on the 4th… The people that don’t know anything about the water are out on the water, and drunk 50 year olds stumbling down the street is also quite entertaining so we have a 360 degree view of constant entertainment on the 4th! And since our place in on the narrow peninsula I can just watch the road from the back yard and see the other side of the lake at the same time, so I can watch the land and water stupidness at at once! Kind of sad that I won’t be there for the utter insanity that comes at dusk since I will be at home with a terrified dog. 

The nice thing about Lake Sammamish is that its a big lake with only one boat launch.   So even when the launch is packed and parking is full... once you are on the lake it never feels crowded.    

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The nice thing about Lake Sammamish is that its a big lake with only one boat launch.   So even when the launch is packed and parking is full... once you are on the lake it never feels crowded.    

Lake Goodwin definitely gets to the crowded point on holiday's. And with only one public launch the line will stretch all the way out of the park and to the main road with boaters waiting to get in. And then they park their vehicles with empty trailers all down the area roads since the park has limited boat trailer parking. Once again THANK YOU TO MY GRANDPARENTS (that are no longer with us ) for buying the lake property back in the 1950’s for about two thousand dollars. 

[ShawniganLake]

The wildfires in Canada have burned an area the size of South Carolina. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Tahoe could finally reach 80 degrees this weekend, but I'll bet the water is still FREEZING from the cold winter and spring.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Sunny start to the day here again.   Going to be another gorgeous day.

My sister and her family are coming on Sunday from San Diego and it looks like they are going to have a warm trip.   But they will be in Bellingham for part of the week and it won't be as hot up there.   Planning a boating outing with them on the 4th and my son said he is going to get the boat launched early that day and wait for us because it will be challenging to even get on the lake by noon given the holiday and the heat.

“Hot”?

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

“Hot”?

Dude... you should know how bad your 'Tim' forecasts are by now.   That looks like the forecast for Snoqualmie Pass.   

It will likely be 90+ degrees on a few days next week out here.   

Look at the ECMWF for central King County... that is how it works during warm spells.   

[TT-SEA]

23 minutes ago, Phil said:

“Hot”?

Case in point... its already 70 degrees here at 9:20 a.m.     It will easily be over 80 this afternoon.    73 is probably a good forecast for 4,000 feet today.

[TT-SEA]

Toasty GFS run... its definitely been trending towards the ECWMF/EPS.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

No matter the weather pattern the Willamette Valley is just Sacramento in the summer now, climate zones have all shifted 700 miles north starting in 2013. It is official now. Tim can stay where he is, we will roast every year now. 

[GobBluth]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

No matter the weather pattern the Willamette Valley is just Sacramento in the summer now, climate zones have all shifted 700 miles north starting in 2013. It is official now. Tim can stay where he is, we will roast every year now. 

From this mornings AFD. It's a huge difference from just a decade ago when heat events were reliant on the placement of the thermal low and decent offshore flow. 

Onshore flow is expected to continue through the forecast period with periods
of breezy northwesterly winds with gusts up to 20 mph in the
afternoon and evening hours. These winds could exacerbate fire
weather concerns, especially with holiday activities, though the
overall pattern does not suggest high fire weather concerns. Those
spending time outdoors should practice heat safety as well as
fire safety. -HEC

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, GobBluth said:

From this mornings AFD. It's a huge difference from just a decade ago when heat events were reliant on the placement of the thermal low and decent offshore flow. 

Onshore flow is expected to continue through the forecast period with periods
of breezy northwesterly winds with gusts up to 20 mph in the
afternoon and evening hours. These winds could exacerbate fire
weather concerns, especially with holiday activities, though the
overall pattern does not suggest high fire weather concerns. Those
spending time outdoors should practice heat safety as well as
fire safety. -HEC

I remember the extended heat wave at the end of last July when SEA set the all-time record for consecutive 90+ days was all with weak onshore flow.

[Phil]

48 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Dude... you should know how bad your 'Tim' forecasts are by now.   That looks like the forecast for Snoqualmie Pass.   

It will likely be 90+ degrees on a few days next week out here.   

Look at the ECMWF for central King County... that is how it works during warm spells.   

 

30 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Case in point... its already 70 degrees here at 9:20 a.m.     It will easily be over 80 this afternoon.    73 is probably a good forecast for 4,000 feet today.

I was teasing you man. Thought you’d pick up on that.  

[Phil]

Jul-Sep is my least favorite time of year. ’Tis the season for angsty trolling.

Apologies in advance!

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

I was teasing you man. Thought you’d pick up on that.  

No idea where you even got that forecast.  Even Snoqualmie Pass will be in the mid 80s next week.   But somehow it will be in the 70s at my house per you.   I think you pulled a forecast for 5,000 feet.   My house is at 980 feet.

[Phil]

Another win for Dr. Roundy’s MJO-based composite. Nailed this 2+ months ago. I was skeptical but I’m definitely on board now.

If correct, some legit STJ/ULL activity coming up for the SW US later in July.

https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/indexmjo.html

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Another win for Dr. Roundy’s MJO-based composite. Nailed this 2+ months ago. I was skeptical but I’m definitely on board now.

If correct, some legit STJ/ULL activity coming up for the SW US later in July.

https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/indexmjo.html

Not sure about a win.    A couple weeks ago it showed troughing over the PNW until late July and you said the next round of ridging would probably wait until that time.   And yet here we are looking at an early July heat wave.    

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

No idea where you even got that forecast.  Even Snoqualmie Pass will be in the mid 80s next week.   But somehow it will be in the 70s at my house per you.   I think you pulled a forecast for 5,000 feet.   My house is at 980 feet.

NWS point and click for North Bend. I knew you’d freak when I posted it.  

Probably a good forecast for the ridge next to your house.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not sure about a win.    A couple weeks ago it showed troughing over the PNW until late July and you said the next round of ridging would probably wait until that time.   And yet here we are looking at an early July heat wave.    

No it didn’t. You’re thinking of this tool that includes ER & low pass/ENSO.

https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/index200reg.html

But this ENSO event isn’t canonically coupled to NH ET pattern right now so including that actually reduces the skill, which is strange but amusing nonetheless.

There’s no modern precedent to 2023’s the low pass structure so making detailed ET forecasts based on that component is very high risk.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

NWS point and click for North Bend. I knew you’d freak when I posted it.  

Probably a good forecast for the ridge next to your house.

Too cold for the ridge as well.    That forecast actually applies to elevations well above Snoqualmie Pass.   

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

No it didn’t. You’re thinking of this tool that includes ER & low pass/ENSO.

https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/index200reg.html

But this ENSO event isn’t canonically coupled to NH ET pattern right now so including that actually reduces the skill, which is strange but amusing nonetheless.

 

Interesting... I remember that now.   But you also said ridging would likely hold off until late July based on that.   

[Phil]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Too cold for the ridge as well.    That forecast actually applies to elevations well above Snoqualmie Pass.   

Yeah I forgot your mountaintop estate is the hottest, driest, cloudiest, and rainiest location in the PNW. ️ 

I bet your average temp next week is warmer than mine. Might even give Phoenix a run for their money.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yeah I forgot your mountaintop estate is the hottest, driest, cloudiest, and rainiest location in the PNW. ️ 

I bet your average temp next week is warmer than mine. Might even give Phoenix a run for their money.

Its an interesting climate for sure... annual rainfall total is very high but we also have long, warm summers.    The foothills of the WA Cascades are often the wettest spot and in other situations often the warmest, sunniest spot on the west side.   

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Interesting... I remember that now.   But you also said ridging would likely hold off until late July based on that.   

Assuming the LP/canonical niño coupling established as dominant then yes. But I also said if the MJO/subseasonal component(s) proved dominant the warmth would shift forward in time, towards the period with greatest destructive interference between MJO & ENSO/LP (early/mid July versus mid/late July).

But I always expected a period of heat in July, as you know. Have brought it up frequently, to the point of redundancy.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Assuming the LP/canonical niño coupling established as dominant then yes. But I also said if the MJO/subseasonal component(s) proved dominant the warmth would shift forward in time, towards the period with greatest destructive interference between MJO & ENSO/LP (early/mid July versus mid/late July).

But I always expected a period of heat in July, as you know. Have brought it up frequency, to the point of redundancy.

Yes... you have never said it would be a cool July.    At this point I am hoping you are also right about a couple rounds of anomalous troughing that bring some meaningful rain.  

[Phil]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Yes... you have never said it would be a cool July.    At this point I am hoping you are also right about a couple rounds of anomalous troughing that bring some meaningful rain.  

Since MJO/sub-seasonal component(s) are expressed dominantly in the NH ET (at least in the W-Hem), the next round of western troughing/ULL activity will likely occur during the second half of July.

MJO will augment the STJ, so ULL activity will impact CA/SW US first, which will broaden and impact the PNW a week or two after that, as westerly momentum is transferred poleward again.

[ShawniganLake]

Looks like summer is over in North Bend. Doubt they crack 80 again until 2024.  Poor Tim