TT-SEA Posted April 15, 2020 Report Share Posted April 15, 2020 You can see where it’s going, though, with the negatively tilted ridge axis off CA and building -NAM (haven’t seen that in awhile during late April/May). Definitely looks like a different pattern than what we have seen recently. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted April 15, 2020 Report Share Posted April 15, 2020 Definitely looks like a different pattern than what we have seen recently. Happy 502,777th post Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan the Weatherman Posted April 15, 2020 Report Share Posted April 15, 2020 Happy 502,777th post I know he posts a lot on here, but 502,777 posts sounds far out even for a very frequent poster. Is this number really correct?? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 15, 2020 Report Share Posted April 15, 2020 I know he posts a lot on here, but 502,777 posts sounds far out even for a very frequent poster. Is this number really correct?? No... Fred bumped it up from 50,000 to 500,000 in January as a joke. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted April 15, 2020 Report Share Posted April 15, 2020 Warm out there this afternoon. Probably the warmest day of spring so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 15, 2020 Report Share Posted April 15, 2020 Warm out there this afternoon. Probably the warmest day of spring so far. Cooler here... only 64. Tomorrow we should get in on that warmer air up there. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan the Weatherman Posted April 15, 2020 Report Share Posted April 15, 2020 No... Fred bumped it up from 50,000 to 500,000 in January as a joke.I did the math regarding since you joined back in 2014, that you would have had to post 220 times per day on average to reach this number. I know you are a very frequent poster, but I somehow didn't believe that 502,779 number and I also remember seeing your total post count much lower just a few months ago. Thanks for clarifying! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 Clouds starting to break up. Maybe some stars tonight? Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 12Z EPS is a little less zonal in that period... Looks like a return to a ridgy pattern towards the end of the month. Hopefully we can get a few days of onshore flow before then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 You can see where it’s going, though, with the negatively tilted ridge axis off CA and building -NAM (haven’t seen that in awhile during late April/May).When was the last time we saw that in late April/May? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 Fired up the sprinklers today!!! 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 Nice day! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 When was the last time we saw that in late April/May?I think 2016, coming off the super niño. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 I think 2016, coming off the super niño. Yeah... the first half of April has been stormy and wet for the last 3 years. This year is the complete opposite. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 Cooler here... only 64. Tomorrow we should get in on that warmer air up there.69 here this afternoon. We topped out at 65 last week Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 I think 2016, coming off the super niño.That was a nice summer here. Not too hot overall compared to recent ones we have had. I wouldn't mind some sort of repeat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 I think 2016, coming off the super niño.That was one of our warmest Aprils on record and also a top 5 warm May, fwiw. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 Down to 55 here currently after a high of 66 today. Looks like some showers fired up over the Cascades/Gorge this afternoon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 New 7-day from Mark finally shows a rainy day at the end. Also wouldn’t surprise me to see the Sunday-Tuesday period which are currently forecast in the mid-upper 60s all end up 70+. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 Down to 55 here currently after a high of 66 today. Looks like some showers fired up over the Cascades/Gorge this afternoon.Was hoping some of those could have made it into the valley. They were close.Looks like a fire weather watch is up for the area.https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=pqr&wwa=fire%20weather%20watch Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 Was hoping some of those could have made it into the valley. They were close.Looks like a fire weather watch is up for the area.https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=pqr&wwa=fire%20weather%20watchSo early... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 So early...https://www.google.ca/amp/s/vancouversun.com/news/uncontrolled-slash-fire-burning-fast-prompting-evacuations-near-squamish-rcmp/wcm/783c8b96-64f5-411c-bdba-31110d45ad89/amp/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 https://www.google.ca/amp/s/vancouversun.com/news/uncontrolled-slash-fire-burning-fast-prompting-evacuations-near-squamish-rcmp/wcm/783c8b96-64f5-411c-bdba-31110d45ad89/amp/But that's north of here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 But that's north of here.Yea. Pretty early for the BC Coast. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 12Z EPS is a little less zonal in that period... 00Z EPS for comparison... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 90% of Oregon is now in a drought with over 60% of the state in at least a moderate drought. Not good. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 90% of Oregon is now in a drought with over 60% of the state in at least a moderate drought. Not good. Oregon (and northern CA) has been caught in the middle... between wetter conditions to the north and farther south. Much different story for western WA and southern CA. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 Oregon (and northern CA) has been caught in the middle... between wetter conditions to the north and farther south. Much different story for western WA and southern CA. Yeah...though the Washington Cascades are also in a drought as well. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 Yeah...though the Washington Cascades are also in a drought as well. Snow pack is at or above 100% for most of the WA Cascades. And its been wet this year so far... Maybe its picking up on the drier than normal conditions east of the Cascades... but the mountain snow pack is much more important over there in terms of available water. A much different story in western Oregon... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 Snow pack is at or above 100% for most of the WA Cascades. And its been wet this year so far... Maybe its picking up on the drier than normal conditions east of the Cascades... but the mountain snow pack is much more important over there in terms of available water. A much different story in western Oregon... Yeah I was speaking more about the east slopes. Moisture really got hung up on the west side this year. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 90% of Oregon is now in a drought with over 60% of the state in at least a moderate drought. Not good. One of the reasons I hope we get some rain this spring. With how the coronavirus attacks the lungs, the last thing we need is to make it even more harder on people by breathing in wildfire smoke. Coronavirus + Wildfire smoke is a bad combination. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 That was one of our warmest Aprils on record and also a top 5 warm May, fwiw. Yeah, April 2016 was legit blowtorch. Warmest on record for OLM. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 Yeah I was speaking more about the east slopes. Moisture really got hung up on the west side this year.Definitely. A huge chunk of WA and OR have been drier than normal this year so far... but western WA and the WA Cascades are the notable exception. Oregon is not in a very good place heading into the warm season. But a cooler and wetter summer can effectively mitigate the fire season despite a dry start as we saw last year. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 Snow pack is at or above 100% for most of the WA Cascades. And its been wet this year so far... Maybe its picking up on the drier than normal conditions east of the Cascades... but the mountain snow pack is much more important over there in terms of available water. A much different story in western Oregon... Crazy how wet it's been up there for you guys in the Cascade foothills and mountains. Also been drier than normal in Eastern Washington, quite the anomalies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 Looking at Michael Ventrice’s hurricane season forecast, it looks like he’s also seeing low frequency tropical convective forcing increasingly centered over the Indian Ocean with time (mentions the descending easterly shear favoring a reduction in off-equator convection, which is generally true as well). Also, dateline/WPAC subsidence would typically correspond to uplift in the IO without the +IOD focusing uplift in the W-IO (can be a high wavenumber regime with a weak low pass) so that makes sense. This would, based on history (even very recent history) suggest offshore Aleutian/GOA Ridging (-PNA) would be favored to dominate the warm, along with drier than average conditions, especially over the SW US and inland. But PWAT anomalies would be lower than average with such a pattern. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 Hit a low of 38 this morning. Lots of sub-40 lows this month. All but a handful of mornings. Glad to see a wetter pattern slowly marching into focus on the models. Hope to see momentum keep up with today’s runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 Looking at Michael Ventrice’s hurricane season forecast, it looks like he’s also seeing forcing increasingly centered over the Indian Ocean (mentions the descending easterly shear favoring a reduction in off-equator convection, which is generally true as well).This would, based on history (even very recent history) suggest offshore Aleutian/GOA Ridging (-PNA) would be favored to dominate the warm, along with drier than average conditions, especially over the SW US and inland. But PWAT anomalies would be lower than average with such a pattern.You must have missed my reply to your post yesterday. The main region of the west in which a -PNA regime would affect summertime moisture transport is the monsoon influenced areas of the SW. Summers with below average heights in our area west of the Cascades tend to be wetter even if it is a drier pattern for most of the west. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 Definitely. A huge chunk of WA and OR have been drier than normal this year so far... but western WA and the WA Cascades are the notable exception. Oregon is not in a very good place heading into the warm season. But a cooler and wetter summer can effectively mitigate the fire season despite a dry start as we saw last year.Yeah, I'm a little concerned down here but we still got 2 solid months before summer really gets going. Lots of time to get some rain down here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 You must have missed my reply to your post yesterday. The main region of the west in which a -PNA regime would affect summertime moisture transport is the moonsoon influenced areas of the SW.I guess I did. The departures from normal in terms of precipitation are certainly much larger down there when reanalyzing boundary state analogs, and I’m very concerned about CA and the SW US this summer. More so than I’ve been in awhile. But even in the PNW, precipitable water anomalies and overall precipitation w/ respect to climo seems to decline as summer wears on, especially inland, even with a “cool” signal clearly present. Certainly, there’s nothing close to the level of moisture that was showing up in the analogs last year at this time. It’s less “dry” in June on the West Side for some reason, but the signal flips around in July except up in BC and at the immediate coast, then it’s all dry in August, but it’s still a significantly cooler signal vs the one in WPAC forcing/+PMM years. There aren’t many IO/EHEM dominated summers, I suppose, so maybe it’s not a familiar pattern to memory? I’ll post all of this when I’m finished. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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