June 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Only got up to 54 today. 0.33” of rain.

[Phil]

You see, I wouldn’t dislike this pattern if we were actually getting these thunderstorms. There were some epic ones in southern Oregon two days ago and of course let’s not forget the late May event. But nope, here it’s just been chilly insipid drizzly stratosh*t with no more than 0.2” a day. The kind of weather only a Jesse could love.

Give it time. Severe weather comes in bunches here too with lots of swings and misses in-between.

[Omegaraptor]

23.58” YTD here.

Thought Tacoma would be a bit drier. You guys are shadowed in NW flow, right?

 

HIO is at 14.71” YTD. Feb-May total was 6.35” which is lower than the average for Los Angeles and Salt Lake City. You need SW flow to get above average precip at HIO... we just haven’t really seen it since late January.

[Jesse]

You see, I wouldn’t dislike this pattern if we were actually getting these thunderstorms. There were some epic ones in southern Oregon two days ago and of course let’s not forget the late May event. But nope, here it’s just been chilly insipid drizzly stratosh*t with no more than 0.2” a day. The kind of weather only a Jesse could love.

Do you realize where you live?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Extremely heavy rain and 48.

[Jesse]

Not sure what the stats say but feels like an extended late June hot spell would probably be a bad omen for the summer.

2015

[ShawniganLake]

2015

This late spring and early summer has not resembled 2015 at all, though.

[Jesse]

This late spring and early summer has not resembled 2015 at all, though.

One can houpe!

[ShawniganLake]

[Phil]

[ShawniganLake]

Aren’t you the guy who enjoys wildfire smoke?

Those were both great smoke years.

[ShawniganLake]

July 2015

 

 

August 2017

 

[TacomaWaWx]

Thought Tacoma would be a bit drier. You guys are shadowed in NW flow, right?

HIO is at 14.71” YTD. Feb-May total was 6.35” which is lower than the average for Los Angeles and Salt Lake City. You need SW flow to get above average precip at HIO... we just haven’t really seen it since late January.

Wow under 15” still that’s crazy. Yeah NW flow generally shadows us. Our main rain makers are SW flow as well at this location. I would have to check what some other stations are YTD in around western WA. I’d bet we are one of the drier locations though.

Feb-May had 12.03” here.

[TacomaWaWx]

Hit 47 this morning...coldest morning low since 5/22.

[The Swamp]

the upcoming heat wave has just about been watered down to nothing

 

fully expect the models to cloud up the forecast each day from here until about Tuesday and then add rain into the mix for fathers day

 

Tim, you nailed it with the "default troughing" position

 

it is it what it is

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Picked up about an inch with that heavy shower last night. Up to near 3.5” on the month. Currently partly cloudy and 45.

[Blizzard777]

Thought Tacoma would be a bit drier. You guys are shadowed in NW flow, right?

 

HIO is at 14.71” YTD. Feb-May total was 6.35” which is lower than the average for Los Angeles and Salt Lake City. You need SW flow to get above average precip at HIO... we just haven’t really seen it since late January.

Edge just a bit further North and the rain shadow sucks up a bit more of the precipitation.

19.94” ytd 

[TacomaWaWx]

Edge just a bit further North and the rain shadow sucks up a bit more of the precipitation.

19.94” ytd

 

You have 3.5” less rain YTD and you’re only like 5-7 miles east of here?

[Blizzard777]

Federal Way sunny with clouds in the distance 

52* currently with a low of 47* 

 

SE PDX mostly cloudy with a few breaks of blue.

54* 

[MossMan]

Had a low of 46.

.06” so far on the day, 2.75” on the month.

Cloudy

[Blizzard777]

You have 3.5” less rain YTD and you’re only like 5-7 miles east of here?

Tough one to figure out. Their are two stations not far away from my place. One always reading the same as mine while the other more. My bucket is located 12 feet off the ground between two houses and of course this is a wind tunnel during the storms so I know this is giving me inaccurate data. Just need to move the bucket up on the roof but the spot it’s in Is so nice for maintenance reasons.

I was running pretty close to Seatac measurements before I had to move the bucket this past year. Now Seatac is beating me as well. Their currently at 22.30”

 

Edit: Your area does do better with precipitation though. Tacoma seems to be on the line of the precipitation field when w e’re being shadowed. I also noticed as showers flow in from the WSW they seem to loose intensity as they approach my area. Unsure of the dynamics that play out in that situations.

[jakeinthevalley]

Brother just texted from Baker City.

 

37f with rain snow mix

[ShawniganLake]

Keep the chains in your car if you are travelling the passes in southern B.C.

 

[Jesse]

the upcoming heat wave has just about been watered down to nothing

 

fully expect the models to cloud up the forecast each day from here until about Tuesday and then add rain into the mix for fathers day

 

Tim, you nailed it with the "default troughing" position

 

it is it what it is

That shows a solidly warm pattern in the mid to long range. Just because it’s not a heatwave doesn’t meant it’s troughing.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS shows rain for the coast and Vancouver Island right into next weekend... and its been trending farther south and east with each run.     I am just hoping for a couple days without rain at this point and that feels like it might be tough to achieve.

[TacomaWaWx]

Tough one to figure out. Their are two stations not far away from my place. One always reading the same as mine while the other more. My bucket is located 12 feet off the ground between two houses and of course this is a wind tunnel during the storms so I know this is giving me inaccurate data. Just need to move the bucket up on the roof but the spot it’s in Is so nice for maintenance reasons.

I was running pretty close to Seatac measurements before I had to move the bucket this past year. Now Seatac is beating me as well. Their currently at 22.30”

Edit: Your area does do better with precipitation though. Tacoma seems to be on the line of the precipitation field when w e’re being shadowed. I also noticed as showers flow in from the WSW they seem to loose intensity as they approach my area. Unsure of the dynamics that play out in that situations.

your area does have slightly less rain in general. However I think your station may be slightly underreporting rainfall as well. Your probably at like 22”-22.5” roughly YTD if I had to guess.

[TacomaWaWx]

It’s been a nice mostly sunny morning here. Might actually get our first day without rainfall in 5 days.

[MossMan]

12Z GFS shows rain for the coast and Vancouver Island right into next weekend... and its been trending farther south and east with each run. I am just hoping for a couple days without rain at this point and that feels like it might be tough to achieve.

Is today still looking mostly dry?

[TT-SEA]

Is today still looking mostly dry?

 

 

Probably for your area.

[MossMan]

Probably for your area.

Might try to mow today...Hopefully the mower doesn’t sink.

[Phil]

12Z GFS shows rain for the coast and Vancouver Island right into next weekend... and its been trending farther south and east with each run. I am just hoping for a couple days without rain at this point and that feels like it might be tough to achieve.

I font know about rain, but flow does look relatively westerly on most guidance now. Model soundings now show a quasi-diurnal marine layer component beneath the mid-level ridge. Not really a heat-favorable setup for the westside?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I font know about rain, but flow does look relatively westerly on most guidance now. Model soundings now show a quasi-diurnal marine layer component beneath the mid-level ridge. Not really a heat-favorable setup for the westside?

 

We need a thermal low pressure, bringing east winds and downsloping, to pump up the heat in the Willamette Valley.

[TT-SEA]

I font know about rain, but flow does look relatively westerly on most guidance now. Model soundings now show a quasi-diurnal marine layer component beneath the mid-level ridge. Not really a heat-favorable setup for the westside?

Not even close.

[The Swamp]

That shows a solidly warm pattern in the mid to long range. Just because it’s not a heatwave doesn’t meant it’s troughing.

give it some time and watch the bright green line, the operational

 

each day clouds are getting added, temperatures are getting cooler and before  you know it rain and drippy will be added

 

the trend is not my friend

 

it's your friend though

[Jesse]

give it some time and watch the bright green line, the operational

 

each day clouds are getting added, temperatures are getting cooler and before you know it rain and drippy will be added

 

the trend is not my friend

 

it's your friend though

This stuff gets old. I would love to see some warm and sunny days. We’ve definitively earned some lately. A short heat wave would even be nice for some variability.

 

Going into an extended heat pattern wouldn’t be my cup of tea though, and I would be just fine with troughs and rain again at some point in the next three months to keep the fire threat down and keep things green. But it’s more nuanced than I want it to rain every day all summer.

[Jesse]

I don’t see the problem with the 12z GFS? Looks like a long stretch of dry weather with temps in the 70s and 80s in the mid to long range.

[Jesse]

We need a thermal low pressure, bringing east winds and downsloping, to pump up the heat in the Willamette Valley.

That would actually be more of a shoulder season heat pattern, typically. Generally in the summer all it takes is increasing subsidence as the 4CH expands and turns off marine influence. I guess it could be argued that our REALLY hot days see some sort of offshore flow component, even in the mid summer.

[Deweydog]

This stuff gets old. I would love to see some warm and sunny days. We’ve definitively earned some lately. A short heat wave would even be nice for some variability.

 

Going into an extended heat pattern wouldn’t be my cup of tea though, and I would be just fine with troughs and rain again at some point in the next three months to keep the fire threat down and keep things green. But it’s more nuanced than I want it to rain every day all summer.

#poorjesse

[Deweydog]

Looks like the second half of June might be warmer than the first. 2020 weirdness abounds.

[Jesse]

#poorjesse

Yeah, sorry to steal the spotlight from the ever downtrodden PNW heat lover for a minute.