June 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[TacomaWaWx]

Summer is going to show up guys...it’s only mid June. It almost reminds me of people saying that cold and snow aren’t going to show up this winter in late November. I’m pretty confident we will all get a few stretches of days in the 70s and 80s with sunny skies at some point either at the end of this month...or July and August like we do every year. Even last summer and the summer of 2011 had some good stretches of weather mixed in.

[TT-SEA]

Summer is going to show up guys...it’s only mid June. It almost reminds me of people saying that cold and snow aren’t going to show up this winter in late November. I’m pretty confident we will all get a few stretches of days in the 70s and 80s with sunny skies at some point either at the end of this month...or July and August like we do every year. Even last summer and the summer of 2011 had some good stretches of weather mixed in.

 

 

Yes... at some point through the end of August we will have a couple periods of nice weather.     Such high standards.  

[Front Ranger]

Yes... at some point through the end of August we will have a couple periods of nice weather.     Such high standards.  

 

And there have been NONE so far this year!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

12Z GFS shows rain for the coast and Vancouver Island right into next weekend... and its been trending farther south and east with each run.     I am just hoping for a couple days without rain at this point and that feels like it might be tough to achieve.

 

Blazing sun here today just like yesterday, not sure what more you could ask for at this time of year. We've only had 2 or 3 actual rainy days this month.

[TT-SEA]

And there have been NONE so far this year!

 

Did anyone say that?

[TT-SEA]

Blazing sun here today just like yesterday, not sure what more you could ask for at this time of year. We've only had 2 or 3 actual rainy days this month.

 

 

Yes... the sun in your little bubble there definitely makes everyone feel like its summer.   

 

[Deweydog]

We’re f*cked.

 

C’MON!!!

 

Ice burn.

 

Retrogression.

[TT-SEA]

Good news is that the 12Z ECMWF did not trend any colder or wetter for the Wednesday-Saturday period.    All those days should be pretty nice for western WA except maybe along the coast and far north interior.

[TacomaWaWx]

Yes... at some point through the end of August we will have a couple periods of nice weather.     Such high standards.  

I want some warm sunny weather too! It just might not show up for a couple weeks. Eventually it will though! Highly doubt we’re in for another 1954 summer.

[TT-SEA]

Actually the 12Z ECMWF is improved overall.    No heat wave... but quite nice.

 

Too bad its the ECMWF.

[Omegaraptor]

Actually the 12Z ECMWF is improved overall.    No heat wave... but quite nice.

 

Too bad its the ECMWF.

 

What is the JMA showing?

[TT-SEA]

The morning runs today make me miss the good old days when the GFS did not own the ECMWF.

 

It is worth noting though that GFS was also improved for next week compared to the 00Z run.

[ShawniganLake]

Blazing sun here today just like yesterday, not sure what more you could ask for at this time of year. We've only had 2 or 3 actual rainy days this month.

Cloudy and windy north of the malahat today. Cloudy and rainy up here yesterday. The summer bubble over S Vancouver Island has been even smaller than usual this month.

[Phil]

FWIW, the ECMWF solution is certainly plausible.

 

As I look at it closely, one thing I’m (reasonably) confident in is that the GOA/west coast ridge will not “prograde” as the GFS had/has depicted over previous runs. That’s a typical GFS-zonal bias as upper level divergence/diabatic heat release is over-emphasized in the EPAC/WATL. The GEFS in particular loves to go there in the LR.

 

I’d mentioned earlier the low pass/background tendency in the analog pool evolves into an offshore GOA/Aleutian ridge pattern with a low AAM integral. Classical Niña, for all intents and purposes. Essentially every pattern analog for the in-situ AAM moats/IO standing wave features a retrograding wavetrain, and there are no prograding solutions worth mentioning. So the progressive GFS solution is questionable, to say the least.

 

Henceforth, I would still lean towards the more amplified solutions that bring a legitimate 7-10 day warm spell under the retrograding anticyclone. Analogous to 2016 in some respects, with similar timing as well.

[Front Ranger]

Another nice day in Seattle.

 

[TT-SEA]

Another nice day in Seattle.

 

Screenshot_4.png

 

 

Its just been endlessly sunny and warm in Seattle.   

 

[TT-SEA]

FWIW, the ECMWF solution is certainly plausible.

 

As I look at it closely, one thing I’m (reasonably) confident in is that the GOA/west coast ridge will not “prograde” as the GFS had/has depicted over previous runs. That’s a typical GFS-zonal bias as upper level divergence/diabatic heat release is over-emphasized in the EPAC/WATL. The GEFS in particular loves to go there in the LR.

 

I’d mentioned earlier the low pass/background tendency in the analog pool evolves into an offshore GOA/Aleutian ridge pattern with a low AAM integral. Classical Niña, for all intents and purposes. Essentially every pattern analog for the in-situ AAM moats/IO standing wave features a retrograding wavetrain, and there are no prograding solutions worth mentioning. So the progressive GFS solution is questionable, to say the least.

 

Henceforth, I would still lean towards the more amplified solutions that bring a legitimate 7-10 day warm spell under the retrograding anticyclone. Analogous to 2016 in some respects, with similar timing as well.

 

 

Good information... you are at your best when you are not trolling.  

[TT-SEA]

Some sun breaks here and 59... should be dry the rest of the day.

 

61 at SEA.   

 

A nice April day.   

[TT-SEA]

This is the 3rd weekend in a row with an anomalously cold air mass.   Definitely not normal.

 

[Omegaraptor]

Wow under 15” still that’s crazy. Yeah NW flow generally shadows us. Our main rain makers are SW flow as well at this location. I would have to check what some other stations are YTD in around western WA. I’d bet we are one of the drier locations though.

Feb-May had 12.03” here.

 

If you think it's been dry (relative to average) here... some places down in northern California have made Hillsboro look like the Hoh Rainforest in comparison.

 

The town of Willows in the Sacramento Valley is at 3.07" YTD. The average by now is just under 15".

[MossMan]

Some sun breaks here and 59... should be dry the rest of the day.

 

61 at SEA.

 

A nice April day.

Need that sun to start popping up here.

Currently 56.

[GHweatherChris]

This is the 3rd weekend in a row with an anomalously cold air mass. Definitely not normal.

 

Oh well.

[TT-SEA]

Oh well.

 

Certainly nothing we can do about it... and people's preferences have no impact.   If someone loves anomalously cold air masses every weekend then that is great for them because that is what nature is doing!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Anybody wanna throw around a few way too early analogs for the 20-21 cold season?

[Front Ranger]

Its just been endlessly sunny and warm in Seattle.   

 

 

Last 3 days at SEA: no rain today. Couple hours of rain early yesterday morning. Few hours of light rain midday Friday.

 

Been dry the vast majority of the time.

[TT-SEA]

Last 3 days at SEA...no rain today. Couple hours of rain early yesterday morning. Few hours of light rain midday Friday.

 

Been dry the vast majority of the time.

 

 

Great.    

 

I think its probably been raining here less than half the time on those days as well.    Nobody said it was raining all the time.   

[Phil]

FWIW, the EPS is projecting a major trade wind burst right over the IPWP/WPAC domain later this month.

 

Fits Niña climo perfectly, and also lines up with the developing NPAC anticyclone (which starts out as that west coast ridge, before retrograding into the climatological structure and location). Possibly one of the more classic evolutions in recent years.

 

[Phil]

Good information... you are at your best when you are not trolling.

I guess I’m not in a trolling mood today. Might have something to do with this cool, dry weather. Haha.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

FWIW, the EPS is projecting a major trade wind burst right over the IPWP/WPAC domain later this month.

 

Fits Niña climo perfectly, and also lines up with the developing NPAC anticyclone (which starts out as that west coast ridge, before retrograding into the climatological structure and location). Possibly one of the more classic evolutions in recent years.

 

 

Hopefully the mtns will get a nice burial.

 

Windstorms, lowland Arctic events, westerlies smashing the Cascades.

 

It'll most likely run the gamut but will be quite wet.

[Phil]

[TT-SEA]

Not raining here today...

 

[TacomaWaWx]

This is the 3rd weekend in a row with an anomalously cold air mass.   Definitely not normal.

 

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/06/are-weekends-wetter-than-weekdays.html?m=1

I thought this was interesting.

[GeorgeWx]

What is the JMA showing?

Don’t get too excited Omega the Jma is crap heh

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Was 49-50 a nina?

[TT-SEA]

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/06/are-weekends-wetter-than-weekdays.html?m=1

I thought this was interesting.

 

 

There has definitely been some bad timing lately... which makes it "feel" less summery than usual.

 

To do this, I secured the daily precipitation statistics at Seattle-Tacoma Airport for May and June so far--43 days in all.

 

For the full period, there was 4.04 inches at Sea-Tac for .09 inches per day.

 

For the 31 weekdays, there was 1.72 inches in the rain gauge, or .05 inches per day

 

But for the 12 weekend days, there was 2.32 inches or .19 inches per day.

 

Yikes! It is true!  The weekends have been wetter, with nearly FOUR TIMES MORE PRECIPITATION PER DAY THAN DURING THE WEEKDAYS.

[Jesse]

#stoicism

[Front Ranger]

Great.    

 

I think its probably been raining here less than half the time on those days as well.    Nobody said it was raining all the time.   

 

You posted a picture of it raining. Which it has not been doing most of the time in Seattle.

[TacomaWaWx]

There has definitely been some bad timing lately... which makes it "feel" less summery than usual.

 

To do this, I secured the daily precipitation statistics at Seattle-Tacoma Airport for May and June so far--43 days in all.[/size]

For the full period, there was 4.04 inches at Sea-Tac for .[/size]09 inches per day.[/size]

For the 31 weekdays, there was 1.72 inches in the rain gauge, or [/size].05 inches per day

But for the 12 weekend days, there was 2.32 inches or [/size].19 inches per day.[/size]

Yikes! It is true!  The weekends have been wetter, with nearly FOUR TIMES MORE PRECIPITATION PER DAY THAN DURING THE WEEKDAYS.

Eventually it might break the other way...and we get 3-4 weekends in a row with nice weather. We will see!

[TT-SEA]

#stoicism

 

 

How I am not stoic?    Am I lashing out at people with different preferences?   Am I saying there is anything that can be done about it?     Am I saying this June is so unusual overall?   Nope.

 

It truly is what it is... like Chris said.  

[TT-SEA]

You posted a picture of it raining. Which it has not been doing most of the time in Seattle.

 

 

You posted a pic of a sunny Seattle... which it has also not been most of the time.