July 2023 PNW Observations and Discussions

[Phil]

Goofus be goofin’.

Or maybe @Rubus Leucodermis is right and it’s inevitable.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

But doing so requires collective willpower, which will not exist if those pushing for it continue spew false, catastrophist prophecy.

Again, the curious double standard, with the errors in degree of the camp contenting that global warming is a problem being judged more serious than the error in fact of those contending it does not even exist.

 

[SnowWillarrive]

24 minutes ago, ChristheElohim said:

Sumerians are the Annunakis which include the Elohims and Nephilims. Assyrians, Akkadians and Babylonians was also apart. 

People have to admit there is something to the entire giant/angelic narrative found in ancient cultures. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

17 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

By that definition then Çatalhöyük in 6500 BC was probably the first civilization with a population between 3k-10k almost impossible to know for sure though.

Just looked it up and it is not generally considered to be a full civilization but a "proto-city".

[YahRaEl]

4 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

People have to admit there is something to the entire giant/angelic narrative found in ancient cultures. 

I know a lot about it I have done research and have read the Emerald Tablets of Thoth and many other things it's mainly where Bible scriptures been taken from before they changed things and involved a Jesus and put it for Christians. I'm very much into Ancient Spirituality especially Annunakis (Elohims) and Neters of Egypt.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

By many estimates, we are already now warmer than during the Holocene temperature maximum ~ 8,000 years before present.

[Front Ranger]

30 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Obviously, we're special, and the rules that applied to other, lesser civilizations do not apply to us.

That's a completely different point. You're still ignoring the logical inconsistencies...

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

That's a completely different point. You're still ignoring the logical inconsistencies...

I already retracted my claim about there being no civilizations halfway though the Holocene. I don't know what you are talking about.

[Front Ranger]

40 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Using your logic, I could say: "the earth has been colder for the majority of human history, but in the last 100 years which, has been among the warmest in human history, the population has exploded far faster than any other comparable period. Heat is obviously good for humans!"

 

37 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Just like when you complain about the deniers using local events to challenge climate change alarmists, you can't have it just one way.

 

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I already retracted my claim about there being no civilizations halfway though the Holocene. I don't know what you are talking about.

You might take more time to read instead of responding so quickly. These two things.

In one post earlier you pointed out that a denier was using local events to dispute climate change...but seem to have no issue with people using local events to demonstrate climate change.

Then later you made the argument that we can correlate human civilization to climate change, and in the past civilizations have ended due to environmental changes. And I pointed out if we use that logic, you can find a strong correlation between a rapidly warming planet the past 100 years and a thriving and rapidly growing human population.

[Deweydog]

42 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Wow! 45+ new posts since I was last on here just a bit ago! Was there a 18z GFS alert or something? Lows in the single digits at hour 300? DJ and Jim showing back up? 
 

Did anyone ever find Kayla? 

Kayla and Jesse eloped and moved into the fortress of solitude. No DSL up there.

[Deweydog]

@Front Ranger

[YahRaEl]

Realized that the Climate site here in Tacoma that gives our climo averages is down the road from where I stay. We entered peak warmth of summer July 17-August 16 average high is 78.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

12 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

In one post earlier you pointed out that a denier was using local events to dispute climate change...but seem to have no issue with people using local events to demonstrate climate change.

I agree there is a misuse (a misunderstanding, in many cases, I expect) of what individual local events say. I have never denied that.

What I am saying is that getting the details wrong is a less serious error than getting the basic does-it-exist-or-does-it-not fact wrong. Some people here seem to think they are equivalent, or even that the lesser error is the greater one.

Quote

Then later you made the argument that we can correlate human civilization to climate change, and in the past civilizations have ended due to environmental changes. And I pointed out if we use that logic, you can find a strong correlation between a rapidly warming planet the past 100 years and a thriving and rapidly growing human population.

Yes, I do believe we can correlate civilization to the environment (or, more precisely, the health of one to the health of its environment), and that environmental degradation has ended civilizations in the past. And before they ended, the local environment was being changed profoundly just as the civilization was approaching its zenith.

Reminds me of the joke about the man who fell out of a window in a skyscraper, but hat yet to make contact with the ground. "So far, so good!"

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Holy sh*t guys. The year is 2023 not 10000 BC. 

[YahRaEl]

3 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Holy sh*t guys. The year is 2023 not 10000 BC. 

[YahRaEl]

4 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Holy sh*t guys. The year is 2023 not 10000 BC. 

No official data on weather here in Puget Sound before 1940 though there is some write ups as far back 1890.

[Phil]

24 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

By many estimates, we are already now warmer than during the Holocene temperature maximum ~ 8,000 years before present.

That graph is a disgrace to the science of paleoclimatology.

For starters, the resolution of the chosen early/middle holocene proxies is on the order of several centuries, which is longer than the entire instrumental record. You cannot splice the instrumental data onto the tail of a multiproxy analysis and draw comparisons as if they’re describing the same thing (even if you smooth the data such that it’s plotted on the same resolution).

Secondly, there are much higher resolution proxies available via which at least some comparison may be possible with interpolation, but ironically none of them are plotted here. Or if so, they’re smoothed beyond what is necessary, which serves zero purpose unless you’re actively trying to dampen historical climate variability.

[Phil]

If you ever come across a graphic that splices the instrumental record onto the tail of a single or multi-proxy analysis, immediately disregard it. Dead giveaway.

[YahRaEl]

The next plannedemic.

[T-Town]

9 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Holy sh*t guys. The year is 2023 not 10000 BC. 

 

[Phil]

It’s not even a close comparison, either. Sea levels were upwards of 1-2 meters higher during the Holocene thermal maximum than they are today. Sea levels have only risen ~ 8” since the end of the LIA.

That is merely red noise by Holocene standards. Nothing alarming about that, either in terms of rate or magnitude.

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, ChristheElohim said:

No official data on weather here in Puget Sound before 1940 though there is some write ups as far back 1890.

There is official data from downtown Seattle going back to the late 1800s...  its available on the SEA NWS site.

[Front Ranger]

9 minutes ago, ChristheElohim said:

No official data on weather here in Puget Sound before 1940 though there is some write ups as far back 1890.

There is some official data all the way back to the pioneer era, though not much prior to the 1890s. 

One of our long time posters here, Snow Wizard, has some data going back to the 1860s from Fort Steilacoom. 

[YahRaEl]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

There is official data from downtown Seattle going back to the late 1800s...  its available on the SEA NWS site.

Nice didn't realize. Thanks

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Anyone care to post model output for next week? Not the data for Fred Flintstone’s 30th birthday

[YahRaEl]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

There is some official data all the way back to the pioneer era, though not much prior to the 1890s. 

One of our long time posters here, Snow Wizard, has some data going back to the 1860s from Fort Steilacoom. 

I'd love to see those from out at Fort Steilacoom if the one I'm thinking about in Lakewood.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

10 minutes ago, Phil said:

That graph is a disgrace to the science of paleoclimatology.

For starters, the resolution of the chosen early/middle holocene proxies is on the order of several centuries, which is longer than the entire instrumental record. You cannot splice the instrumental data onto the tail of a multiproxy analysis and draw comparisons as if they’re describing the same thing (even if you smooth the data such that it’s plotted on the same resolution).

Secondly, there are much higher resolution proxies available via which at least some comparison may be possible with interpolation, but ironically none of them are plotted here. Or if so, they’re smoothed beyond what is necessary, which serves zero purpose unless you’re actively trying to dampen historical climate variability.

I thought it was not nearly so bad. It showed estimates by many methods, and how much they varied, and how much pronouncements that it was so much warmer in the middle Holocene really can't be made so definitively. If you have some better data to share, I'm all ears (and eyes).

[Meatyorologist]

Loving the recent model trends. EPS is consistently cool... 850mb temps drop below normal tomorrow and don't really rise above normal through the rest of the run. Not something we're used to this time of year anymore.

Monday might be a rain day up this way. That is a new and pleasant development. If that somehow pans out (still doubtful) it'll be a huge win, even for you @TT-SEA. I know you've also been asking for some appreciable rainfall.

[TT-SEA]

26 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I agree there is a misuse (a misunderstanding, in many cases, I expect) of what individual local events say. I have never denied that.

What I am saying is that getting the details wrong is a less serious error than getting the basic does-it-exist-or-does-it-not fact wrong. Some people here seem to think they are equivalent, or even that the lesser error is the greater one.

Yes, I do believe we can correlate civilization to the environment (or, more precisely, the health of one to the health of its environment), and that environmental degradation has ended civilizations in the past. And before they ended, the local environment was being changed profoundly just as the civilization was approaching its zenith.

Reminds me of the joke about the man who fell out of a window in a skyscraper, but hat yet to make contact with the ground. "So far, so good!"

Anecdotally... I went down a rabbit hole recently on weather from the 1300s through the 1700s and there is site that lists and talks about all the major weather events in Europe pulled from different sources.    Extreme cold and extreme wet were seemingly much more detrimental.    Some of the summers during the LIA were pretty brutal on the human population of the time.   Thankfully we have spent the last 100 years coming out of the LIA so during our lifetime the climate is more favorable.  

[Front Ranger]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

It’s not even a close comparison, either. Sea levels were upwards of 1-2 meters higher during the Holocene thermal maximum than they are today. Sea levels have only risen ~ 8” since the end of the LIA.

That is merely red noise by Holocene standards. Nothing alarming about that, either in terms of rate or magnitude.

Some people living in low-lying areas near the coast may need to move. 

Will this result in the end of civilization as we know it? Stay tuned...

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Loving the recent model trends. EPS is consistently cool... 850mb temps drop below normal tomorrow and don't really rise above normal through the rest of the run. Not something we're used to this time of year anymore.

Monday might be a rain day up this way. That is a new and pleasant development. If that somehow pans out (still doubtful) it'll be a huge win, even for you @TT-SEA. I know you've also been asking for some appreciable rainfall.

I would love 1 or 2 inches of rain right now.   Something close to normal in my area for July.   This endless dry weather is eventually going to lead to another west side fire smoldering for weeks and burying us in smoke unless we get some meaningful rain.  

[Front Ranger]

5 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Anyone care to post model output for next week? Not the data for Fred Flintstone’s 30th birthday

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Interestingly... the GEFS shows mid 80s at SEA all of next week (except for Monday).   Which is likely overdone as usual but makes me wonder that it uses for its baseline normal.    If it shows mid 80s all week and also shows that is slightly below normal then something isn't right.  

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Anecdotally... I went down a rabbit hole recently on weather from the 1300s through the 1700s and there is site that lists and talks about all the major weather events in Europe pulled from different sources.    Extreme cold and extreme wet were seemingly much more detrimental.    Some of the summers during the LIA were pretty brutal on the human population of the time.   Thankfully we have spent the last 100 years coming out of the LIA so during our lifetime the climate is more favorable.  

Care to link? I love past weather rabbit holes.

[Phil]

Despite the recent hyperbole re: the 4CH, meteorological summer to date retains the cool-SW, El Niño-like temperature pattern.

Always be wary of intraseasonal excursions from the base state. They often don’t last long.

 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Care to link? I love past weather rabbit holes.

Here is one of them... referring to the 1600s.

https://premium.weatherweb.net/weather-in-history-1600-to-1649-ad/

[Phil]

Talk about fortuitous timing! Starting to look like we’ll have our first 100+ degree heat since 2016 while I’m chilling in the PNW oasis.

Early still, but if so, that’s an epic win.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

18 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

QPF?

[Meatyorologist]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I would love 1 or 2 inches of rain right now.   Something close to normal in my area for July.   This endless dry weather is eventually going to lead to another west side fire smoldering for weeks and burying us in smoke unless we get some meaningful rain.  

That's more of a convection type deal this time of year. Unusually for a budding El Niño, the next couple weeks look to feature more of a canonical -ENSO type pattern with a stout GOA ridge and throughs riding on its eastern flank from the NW into our region, bringing in unseasonable Pacific influence and maximizing northerly sfc pressure gradients. Great for marine layer days, but not so optimal for appreciable precipitation.

Monday is a special case since the trough is trending increasingly cut off, intensifying warm air/moisture advection from the south and forcing condensation on the frontal boundary. Pretty winterlike. And even then, QPF values are in the tenths of inches; hardly enough to re-green lawns.

One hope I have is in the PSCZ. That could locally boost totals substantially along the King/Snohomish county line.

[TT-SEA]

Also... this article says part of the reason for the LIA was an offsetting response from the MWP and melting glaciers.   So its entirely possible that could happen again.    I don't like when people say things like what happened to normal summer in Seattle.   Who is to say that the LIA or 1950s was "normal".   What is normal?   For some people, their perception seems to lock in on whatever was happening when they were really young.   Its such a human flaw in logic... recency bias and no understanding of the bigger picture.  

 

https://www.umass.edu/news/article/winter-coming-researchers-uncover-surprising-cause-little-ice-age#:~:text=This cold spell%2C whose precise,climate state have remained inconclusive.

The Little Ice Age was one of the coldest periods of the past 10,000 years, a period of cooling that was particularly pronounced in the North Atlantic region. This cold spell, whose precise timeline scholars debate, but which seems to have set in around 600 years ago, was responsible for crop failures, famines and pandemics throughout Europe, resulting in misery and death for millions. To date, the mechanisms that led to this harsh climate state have remained inconclusive. However, a new paper published recently in Science Advances gives an up-to-date picture of the events that brought about the Little Ice Age. Surprisingly, the cooling appears to have been triggered by an unusually warm episode.