Indeed, it is easy to misinterpret ensembles in the long range because isolated shortwave troughs imbedded in an otherwise potent ridge regime get washed out and you’re left with muted/weak positive height anomalies. Jared compared a long range EPS mean to a near term deterministic ECMWF run, as if such a comparison can actually be made. In fact many EPS members projected the shortwave/clipper trough, but disagreed wildly on the timing. However the foundational ridge/+PNA regime remains.
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