gabel23 Posted October 10, 2023 Report Share Posted October 10, 2023 Looks like will have a pretty stout low pressure system coming out into the midwest that will produce all kinds of weather! I'm guessing might be one of the signature storms for this years LRC?! Discuss! (My area looks to get dry slotted.......something we had way too much of last year....) Jim Flowers video. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Rapid City SD 250 AM MDT Tue Oct 10 2023 ...STRONG FALL STORM MAY BRING HEAVY SNOWFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY... .A strong fall storm will develop over the Plains late Wednesday into Thursday, bringing heavy precipitation and strong winds to our area through early Friday. Precipitation will begin as rain, with some thunderstorms expected Wednesday into Wednesday night. As colder air wraps into the system late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, precipitation will change over to snow across higher elevations of the Black Hills, where accumulating snow is likely Thursday morning through Friday morning. Rain may mix with or change over to snow across the foothills and portions of the northeastern Wyoming and western South Dakota plains later Thursday into Friday, but confidence in precipitation types is relatively low outside of the Black Hills. Precipitation will taper off from west to east on Friday. SDZ024-028-WYZ057-110000- /O.NEW.KUNR.WS.A.0009.231012T1200Z-231013T1200Z/ Northern Black Hills-Central Black Hills-Wyoming Black Hills- Including Lead, Deadwood, Cheyenne Crossing, Brownsville, Terry Peak, Rochford, Nemo, Hill City, Rockerville, Hisega, Pactola Reservoir, Custer, Jewel Cave, Sundance, and Four Corners 250 AM MDT Tue Oct 10 2023 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 7 inches or more possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...In South Dakota, the Northern Black Hills and the Central Black Hills. In Wyoming, the Wyoming Black Hills. * WHEN...From Thursday morning through late Thursday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Watch means heavy snow, strong winds, freezing precipitation, and cold temperatures are possible. Monitor NOAA weather radio, local radio or television, or the Internet for updates on this potentially dangerous storm. Take time to prepare for severe winter conditions before the storm develops. && 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted October 10, 2023 Report Share Posted October 10, 2023 8 minutes ago, gabel23 said: Looks like will have a pretty stout low pressure system coming out into the midwest that will produce all kinds of weather! I'm guessing might be one of the signature storms for this years LRC?! Discuss! (My area looks to get dry slotted.......something we had way too much of last year....) Jim Flowers video. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Rapid City SD 250 AM MDT Tue Oct 10 2023 ...STRONG FALL STORM MAY BRING HEAVY SNOWFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY... .A strong fall storm will develop over the Plains late Wednesday into Thursday, bringing heavy precipitation and strong winds to our area through early Friday. Precipitation will begin as rain, with some thunderstorms expected Wednesday into Wednesday night. As colder air wraps into the system late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, precipitation will change over to snow across higher elevations of the Black Hills, where accumulating snow is likely Thursday morning through Friday morning. Rain may mix with or change over to snow across the foothills and portions of the northeastern Wyoming and western South Dakota plains later Thursday into Friday, but confidence in precipitation types is relatively low outside of the Black Hills. Precipitation will taper off from west to east on Friday. SDZ024-028-WYZ057-110000- /O.NEW.KUNR.WS.A.0009.231012T1200Z-231013T1200Z/ Northern Black Hills-Central Black Hills-Wyoming Black Hills- Including Lead, Deadwood, Cheyenne Crossing, Brownsville, Terry Peak, Rochford, Nemo, Hill City, Rockerville, Hisega, Pactola Reservoir, Custer, Jewel Cave, Sundance, and Four Corners 250 AM MDT Tue Oct 10 2023 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 7 inches or more possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...In South Dakota, the Northern Black Hills and the Central Black Hills. In Wyoming, the Wyoming Black Hills. * WHEN...From Thursday morning through late Thursday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Watch means heavy snow, strong winds, freezing precipitation, and cold temperatures are possible. Monitor NOAA weather radio, local radio or television, or the Internet for updates on this potentially dangerous storm. Take time to prepare for severe winter conditions before the storm develops. && Yep. The big L is going right over my house. Hope this isn’t the trend this winter. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted October 10, 2023 Author Report Share Posted October 10, 2023 This afternoon's QPF forecast. Loaded up storm system for sure. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 10, 2023 Report Share Posted October 10, 2023 The Euro is late today, but the ICON/GFS/GDPS/UK are actually quite good for my area.... showing totals from 1.8 to 3+ inches. The improvement is mostly due to the first wave of showers and storms along the front being farther north. 5 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted October 10, 2023 Report Share Posted October 10, 2023 Euro is finally running. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted October 10, 2023 Report Share Posted October 10, 2023 Euro. A lot of this in eastern Iowa falls on Friday. I am concerned about bust potential over here though. Just the way the storm track looks like it's going to go, I think Minnesota is in much better shape to get heavy rain. Here in eastern Iowa, I think it will rely on more short lived but heavier downpours, which can be very hit or miss. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted October 10, 2023 Report Share Posted October 10, 2023 Bring on the Rain! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 10, 2023 Report Share Posted October 10, 2023 The Euro still has most of the Wed to early Thu rain/storm, from wave #1, over southern Iowa into northern Missouri. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted October 10, 2023 Report Share Posted October 10, 2023 Slightly off topic, but I just moved again. I no longer live in Tiffin. I moved about 10 miles west to Homestead. A very small town, part of the Amana Colonies. My wife saw a home she just loved there (very old, but at least somewhat remodeled). So now I live in Homestead. I have a much larger yard, lots of trees around too which I'll be interested to see how this affects snowfall measurements. I don't think I'll get quite as much drifting at this house. This also just barely puts me into Iowa County. So for the first time in 25 years I don't live in Johnson County. I have a huge driveway now, so I have a feeling it will be a very snowy winter, LOL. 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 11, 2023 Report Share Posted October 11, 2023 There is a disturbing model trend for southern Iowa. Several models are now showing the first wave dropping a narrow band of heavy rain near Cedar Rapids, but little to nothing over southern Iowa. The HRRR has even shifted this band north of Cedar Rapids. Also, the cold front ahead of the strong low is really drying out on some models, too, as it doesn't light up much until it moves into Illinois. 2 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted October 11, 2023 Author Report Share Posted October 11, 2023 1 hour ago, Hawkeye said: There is a disturbing model trend for southern Iowa. Several models are now showing the first wave dropping a narrow band of heavy rain near Cedar Rapids, but little to nothing over southern Iowa. The HRRR has even shifted this band north of Cedar Rapids. Also, the cold front ahead of the strong low is really drying out on some models, too, as it doesn't light up much until it moves into Illinois. This topic needs to be pinned to it goes to the top of the forum page. Not good for our area either. Dry slot city; hoping we can get something out of this other wise the dry spell continues for Eastern Nebraska. I don't have the ability to pin I tried it. I'm wondering if moderators can be the only one who can do that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted October 11, 2023 Report Share Posted October 11, 2023 We have thunderstorms possible tonight and tomorrow night, wind gusts upwards of 50 mph, and 2-3 possibly even 4 inches of rain. Welcome to the first real storm system for the Northern Plains this season! Let's get it cranking! 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 11, 2023 Report Share Posted October 11, 2023 5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: We have thunderstorms possible tonight and tomorrow night, wind gusts upwards of 50 mph, and 2-3 possibly even 4 inches of rain. Welcome to the first real storm system for the Northern Plains this season! Let's get it cranking! Too bad we're not tracking a snowstorm. Months away for the lucky, at that.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 11, 2023 Report Share Posted October 11, 2023 Slight risk area expanded for tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 11, 2023 Report Share Posted October 11, 2023 Models are split about tonight. Some show the heavy training rain through Cedar Rapids. Other models have shifted it just north of Cedar Rapids. The HRRR was north, but has come south to CR, but others, like the 3knam, are holding north. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted October 11, 2023 Report Share Posted October 11, 2023 It now seems possible I could get no precip at all from this system. Maybe one quick line of storms Thursday evening/night if they even develop in my area. Just can't get a decent rain around here anymore. 2 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted October 11, 2023 Report Share Posted October 11, 2023 Just got put under a Wind Advisory for tomorrow. NWS FSD calling for sustained winds between 25-35 mph with gusts as high as 55 mph. Not too shabby! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 11, 2023 Report Share Posted October 11, 2023 1 hour ago, mlgamer said: It now seems possible I could get no precip at all from this system. Maybe one quick line of storms Thursday evening/night if they even develop in my area. Just can't get a decent rain around here anymore. I'm expecting nothing at all. Feels like a desert these days. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 11, 2023 Report Share Posted October 11, 2023 Some cells with decent hail have popped in the Cedar Rapids/Iowa City area. 1 1 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 12, 2023 Report Share Posted October 12, 2023 TC looking good for the defo band. Long duration event from Thursday-Saturday. 2-3" totals likely. Friday is looking rainy, windy and might not even crack 50°. Lot of leaves will be coming down! Bring this on in 2 months! 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted October 12, 2023 Report Share Posted October 12, 2023 00z HRRRRRRRR showed some pretty strong wind gusts occurring tomorrow night, especially across SE SD. There are some almost 90 mph gusts being shown. That's... crazy. Is it some bad model output or is a sleeper hit incoming? 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttumwaSnomow Posted October 12, 2023 Report Share Posted October 12, 2023 5 hours ago, Clinton said: I'm expecting nothing at all. Feels like a desert these days. Rinse and repeat. A bunch of hype. A couple strips and stripes of decent precip. Large area of nada. Models stink. WHEN WILL PEOPLE START ASKING WHY HALF CONTINENTAL NORTH AMERICAN IN CONSTANT DROUGHT!!! Ottumwa Iowa airport has 15" rain in 2023!!!! 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 12, 2023 Report Share Posted October 12, 2023 My total is about 1.15" so far. We could get a bit more tonight. It would be great if we could double the total by the end. 4 1 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted October 12, 2023 Report Share Posted October 12, 2023 CAMs are definitely seeing something that the global deterministic aren't in regards to winds tonight. GFS/Euro showing us topping out sub-50 mph while HRRR/NAM show gusts 60-70mph. It will be interesting to see how it plays out. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 12, 2023 Report Share Posted October 12, 2023 I got 1.24" as the storm train set up just far enough south to hit Cedar Rapids. Not far to the southwest totals drop off quickly. Unfortunately, the Friday morning surge of good rain, along the cold front, has mostly been shifted eastward toward the river and northern Illinois. Then, the final wave, with the low itself, should drop a narrow band of good rain somewhere around here, but models do not agree where. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 12, 2023 Report Share Posted October 12, 2023 11 hours ago, hawkstwelve said: 00z HRRRRRRRR showed some pretty strong wind gusts occurring tomorrow night, especially across SE SD. There are some almost 90 mph gusts being shown. That's... crazy. Is it some bad model output or is a sleeper hit incoming? I've found that the HRRR is one of the meso models that portrays the higher end of the scale...sorta similar to the 3km NAM... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted October 12, 2023 Report Share Posted October 12, 2023 1 hour ago, Tom said: I've found that the HRRR is one of the meso models that portrays the higher end of the scale...sorta similar to the 3km NAM... I posed the question to NWS FSD on Twitter and they replied saying based on soundings, those CAMs are probably seeing the winds at the 1500-2500 ft level and they're mixing those winds down to the surface. Question becomes whether we can really mix that much, or whether those winds remain more aloft (akin to the deterministic model output). It'll be interesting to see how it plays out tonight! 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted October 12, 2023 Report Share Posted October 12, 2023 Tornado Watch until 7 pm. May have to go to basement locker rooms if we are put in a warning. This is the Thursdays in a row of some type of severe weather. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 12, 2023 Report Share Posted October 12, 2023 Yeah, this has a nice fall flavor to it. Might head up to Bay City and see how things are Saturday. DTX: Quote 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted October 12, 2023 Report Share Posted October 12, 2023 Tornado Warning, we are all in the shelter here at the High School 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted October 12, 2023 Author Report Share Posted October 12, 2023 26 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: Tornado Warning, we are all in the shelter here at the High School Might be in there for a while! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted October 12, 2023 Report Share Posted October 12, 2023 Just went back to the classrooms, and tornado warning #2 was just issued. Southwest of here moving right towards us. We are back in the shelter. This is a first in my teaching career. 2 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted October 12, 2023 Report Share Posted October 12, 2023 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BDT Posted October 12, 2023 Report Share Posted October 12, 2023 Omaha missed this morning (north and south). We will be lucky if we get mist this afternoon at this point..... Nothing new here 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted October 12, 2023 Report Share Posted October 12, 2023 https://x.com/maxarcherwx/status/1712565339970552047?s=46&t=4GpiVIfA4IEj_VYIsXGpRg 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 12, 2023 Report Share Posted October 12, 2023 2 hours ago, jaster220 said: Yeah, this has a nice fall flavor to it. Might head up to Bay City and see how things are Saturday. DTX: Yes, and this would be THE best scenario for LES with arctic air involved if this was winter...nearly 2 days of NNE/NE winds! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 12, 2023 Report Share Posted October 12, 2023 Rain is just starting here. Wind is also picking up. Reminds me of a winter storm......just not cold enough yet Will be fun to see how this pans out in cycle 2. But for now let's see how much rainfall we can get and how much of the leaves will be dropping. Gonna be a raw day tomorrow. Upper 40s forecasted. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted October 12, 2023 Author Report Share Posted October 12, 2023 Dead center. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 13, 2023 Report Share Posted October 13, 2023 1 hour ago, james1976 said: Rain is just starting here. Wind is also picking up. Reminds me of a winter storm......just not cold enough yet Will be fun to see how this pans out in cycle 2. But for now let's see how much rainfall we can get and how much of the leaves will be dropping. Gonna be a raw day tomorrow. Upper 40s forecasted. You don't have to go out too far into la-la land and maps start looking like we flipped a page already! 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttumwaSnomow Posted October 13, 2023 Report Share Posted October 13, 2023 On monday all outlets said my county had a 70 to 90% chance of rain for Wednesday, wed night, Thursday, Thursday night, Friday, Friday night, Saturday. I have .06 so far. Today was almost wall to wall sun. Some agencies still say 100% for Friday! GIVE ME A BREAK FROM THE NONSENSE.. On monday I looked at setup and thought "unless warm front produces Im just looking at dreaded dryslot".. that is indeed been the case. Im really fed up with 3 things: 1) se iowa continous drought, 2) models are useless 3) forecasting outlets that are absolutely zero value, both govt and private ones, as they seem not to care at all about accuracy in this generally rural area. Nothing is "normal or Average" anymore in this place!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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