Oct. 11th-14th Severe Weather/Rain/Snow

[gabel23]

Looks like will have a pretty stout low pressure system coming out into the midwest that will produce all kinds of weather! I'm guessing might be one of the signature storms for this years LRC?! Discuss! (My area looks to get dry slotted.......something we had way too much of last year....)

 

Jim Flowers video. 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
250 AM MDT Tue Oct 10 2023

...STRONG FALL STORM MAY BRING HEAVY SNOWFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE
BLACK HILLS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...

.A strong fall storm will develop over the Plains late Wednesday
into Thursday, bringing heavy precipitation and strong winds to
our area through early Friday. Precipitation will begin as rain,
with some thunderstorms expected Wednesday into Wednesday night.
As colder air wraps into the system late Wednesday night into
Thursday morning, precipitation will change over to snow across
higher elevations of the Black Hills, where accumulating snow is
likely Thursday morning through Friday morning. Rain may mix with
or change over to snow across the foothills and portions of the
northeastern Wyoming and western South Dakota plains later
Thursday into Friday, but confidence in precipitation types is
relatively low outside of the Black Hills. Precipitation will
taper off from west to east on Friday.

SDZ024-028-WYZ057-110000-
/O.NEW.KUNR.WS.A.0009.231012T1200Z-231013T1200Z/
Northern Black Hills-Central Black Hills-Wyoming Black Hills-
Including Lead, Deadwood, Cheyenne Crossing, Brownsville,
Terry Peak, Rochford, Nemo, Hill City, Rockerville, Hisega,
Pactola Reservoir, Custer, Jewel Cave, Sundance, and Four Corners
250 AM MDT Tue Oct 10 2023

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 7
  inches or more possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...In South Dakota, the Northern Black Hills and the
  Central Black Hills. In Wyoming, the Wyoming Black Hills.

* WHEN...From Thursday morning through late Thursday night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means heavy snow, strong winds, freezing
precipitation, and cold temperatures are possible. Monitor NOAA
weather radio, local radio or television, or the Internet for
updates on this potentially dangerous storm. Take time to prepare
for severe winter conditions before the storm develops.

&&

 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

8 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

Looks like will have a pretty stout low pressure system coming out into the midwest that will produce all kinds of weather! I'm guessing might be one of the signature storms for this years LRC?! Discuss! (My area looks to get dry slotted.......something we had way too much of last year....)

 

Jim Flowers video. 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
250 AM MDT Tue Oct 10 2023

...STRONG FALL STORM MAY BRING HEAVY SNOWFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE
BLACK HILLS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...

.A strong fall storm will develop over the Plains late Wednesday
into Thursday, bringing heavy precipitation and strong winds to
our area through early Friday. Precipitation will begin as rain,
with some thunderstorms expected Wednesday into Wednesday night.
As colder air wraps into the system late Wednesday night into
Thursday morning, precipitation will change over to snow across
higher elevations of the Black Hills, where accumulating snow is
likely Thursday morning through Friday morning. Rain may mix with
or change over to snow across the foothills and portions of the
northeastern Wyoming and western South Dakota plains later
Thursday into Friday, but confidence in precipitation types is
relatively low outside of the Black Hills. Precipitation will
taper off from west to east on Friday.

SDZ024-028-WYZ057-110000-
/O.NEW.KUNR.WS.A.0009.231012T1200Z-231013T1200Z/
Northern Black Hills-Central Black Hills-Wyoming Black Hills-
Including Lead, Deadwood, Cheyenne Crossing, Brownsville,
Terry Peak, Rochford, Nemo, Hill City, Rockerville, Hisega,
Pactola Reservoir, Custer, Jewel Cave, Sundance, and Four Corners
250 AM MDT Tue Oct 10 2023

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 7
  inches or more possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...In South Dakota, the Northern Black Hills and the
  Central Black Hills. In Wyoming, the Wyoming Black Hills.

* WHEN...From Thursday morning through late Thursday night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means heavy snow, strong winds, freezing
precipitation, and cold temperatures are possible. Monitor NOAA
weather radio, local radio or television, or the Internet for
updates on this potentially dangerous storm. Take time to prepare
for severe winter conditions before the storm develops.

&&

 

 

Yep. The big L is going right over my house. Hope this isn’t the trend this winter. 

[gabel23]

This afternoon's QPF forecast. Loaded up storm system for sure. 

[Hawkeye]

The Euro is late today, but the ICON/GFS/GDPS/UK are actually quite good for my area.... showing totals from 1.8 to 3+ inches.  The improvement is mostly due to the first wave of showers and storms along the front being farther north.

[bud2380]

Euro is finally running.  

[bud2380]

 

Euro.  A lot of this in eastern Iowa falls on Friday.  I am concerned about bust potential over here though.  Just the way the storm track looks like it's going to go, I think Minnesota is in much better shape to get heavy rain.  Here in eastern Iowa, I think it will rely on more short lived but heavier downpours, which can be very hit or miss.  

[BMT]

Bring on the Rain!

[Hawkeye]

The Euro still has most of the Wed to early Thu rain/storm, from wave #1, over southern Iowa into northern Missouri.

[bud2380]

Slightly off topic, but I just moved again.  I no longer live in Tiffin.  I moved about 10 miles west to  Homestead.  A very small town, part of the Amana Colonies.  My wife saw a home she just loved there (very old, but at least somewhat remodeled).  So now I live in Homestead.  I have a much larger yard, lots of trees around too which I'll be interested to see how this affects snowfall measurements.  I don't think I'll get quite as much drifting at this house.  This also just barely puts me into Iowa County.  So for the first time in 25 years I don't live in Johnson County.  I have a huge driveway now, so I have a feeling it will be a very snowy winter, LOL.  

[Hawkeye]

There is a disturbing model trend for southern Iowa.  Several models are now showing the first wave dropping a narrow band of heavy rain near Cedar Rapids, but little to nothing over southern Iowa.  The HRRR has even shifted this band north of Cedar Rapids.  Also, the cold front ahead of the strong low is really drying out on some models, too, as it doesn't light up much until it moves into Illinois.

[gabel23]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye said:

There is a disturbing model trend for southern Iowa.  Several models are now showing the first wave dropping a narrow band of heavy rain near Cedar Rapids, but little to nothing over southern Iowa.  The HRRR has even shifted this band north of Cedar Rapids.  Also, the cold front ahead of the strong low is really drying out on some models, too, as it doesn't light up much until it moves into Illinois.

This topic needs to be pinned to it goes to the top of the forum page.

Not good for our area either. Dry slot city; hoping we can get something out of this other wise the dry spell continues for Eastern Nebraska. 

 

I don't have the ability to pin I tried it. I'm wondering if moderators can be the only one who can do that? 

[hawkstwelve]

We have thunderstorms possible tonight and tomorrow night, wind gusts upwards of 50 mph, and 2-3 possibly even 4 inches of rain. Welcome to the first real storm system for the Northern Plains this season! Let's get it cranking!

[jaster220]

5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

We have thunderstorms possible tonight and tomorrow night, wind gusts upwards of 50 mph, and 2-3 possibly even 4 inches of rain. Welcome to the first real storm system for the Northern Plains this season! Let's get it cranking!

Too bad we're not tracking a snowstorm. Months away for the lucky, at that..

[Clinton]

Slight risk area expanded for tomorrow. 

[Hawkeye]

Models are split about tonight.  Some show the heavy training rain through Cedar Rapids.  Other models have shifted it just north of Cedar Rapids.  The HRRR was north, but has come south to CR, but others, like the 3knam, are holding north.

[mlgamer]

It now seems possible I could get no precip at all from this system. Maybe one quick line of storms Thursday evening/night if they even develop in my area. Just can't get a decent rain around here anymore.

[hawkstwelve]

Just got put under a Wind Advisory for tomorrow. NWS FSD calling for sustained winds between 25-35 mph with gusts as high as 55 mph. Not too shabby!

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, mlgamer said:

It now seems possible I could get no precip at all from this system. Maybe one quick line of storms Thursday evening/night if they even develop in my area. Just can't get a decent rain around here anymore.

I'm expecting nothing at all. Feels like a desert these days.

[Hawkeye]

Some cells with decent hail have popped in the Cedar Rapids/Iowa City area.

[james1976]

TC looking good for the defo band. Long duration event from Thursday-Saturday. 2-3" totals likely. Friday is looking rainy, windy and might not even crack 50°. Lot of leaves will be coming down!

Bring this on in 2 months!

[hawkstwelve]

00z HRRRRRRRR showed some pretty strong wind gusts occurring tomorrow night, especially across SE SD. There are some almost 90 mph gusts being shown. That's... crazy.

Is it some bad model output or is a sleeper hit incoming?

[OttumwaSnomow]

5 hours ago, Clinton said:

I'm expecting nothing at all. Feels like a desert these days.

Rinse and repeat. A bunch of hype.  A couple  strips and stripes of decent  precip. Large area of nada.  Models stink. WHEN WILL  PEOPLE  START ASKING WHY HALF CONTINENTAL  NORTH AMERICAN  IN CONSTANT DROUGHT!!! Ottumwa Iowa airport  has 15" rain in 2023!!!!

[Hawkeye]

My total is about 1.15" so far.  We could get a bit more tonight.  It would be great if we could double the total by the end.

[hawkstwelve]

CAMs are definitely seeing something that the global deterministic aren't in regards to winds tonight. GFS/Euro showing us topping out sub-50 mph while HRRR/NAM show gusts 60-70mph. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

[Hawkeye]

I got 1.24" as the storm train set up just far enough south to hit Cedar Rapids.  Not far to the southwest totals drop off quickly.

Unfortunately, the Friday morning surge of good rain, along the cold front, has mostly been shifted eastward toward the river and northern Illinois.  Then, the final wave, with the low itself, should drop a narrow band of good rain somewhere around here, but models do not agree where.

[Tom]

11 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

00z HRRRRRRRR showed some pretty strong wind gusts occurring tomorrow night, especially across SE SD. There are some almost 90 mph gusts being shown. That's... crazy.

Is it some bad model output or is a sleeper hit incoming?

I've found that the HRRR is one of the meso models that portrays the higher end of the scale...sorta similar to the 3km NAM... 

[hawkstwelve]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

I've found that the HRRR is one of the meso models that portrays the higher end of the scale...sorta similar to the 3km NAM... 

I posed the question to NWS FSD on Twitter and they replied saying based on soundings, those CAMs are probably seeing the winds at the 1500-2500 ft level and they're mixing those winds down to the surface. Question becomes whether we can really mix that much, or whether those winds remain more aloft (akin to the deterministic model output). It'll be interesting to see how it plays out tonight!

[CentralNebWeather]

Tornado Watch until 7 pm. May have to go to basement locker rooms if we are put in a warning. This is the Thursdays in a row of some type of severe weather.  

[jaster220]

Yeah, this has a nice fall flavor to it. Might head up to Bay City and see how things are Saturday.

DTX:

Quote

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Tornado Warning, we are all in the shelter here at the High School 

[gabel23]

26 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Tornado Warning, we are all in the shelter here at the High School 

Might be in there for a while! 

[CentralNebWeather]

Just went back to the classrooms, and tornado warning #2 was just issued. Southwest of here moving right towards us. We are back in the shelter. This is a first in my teaching career. 

[CentralNebWeather]

[BDT]

Omaha missed this morning (north and south). We will be lucky if we get mist this afternoon at this point..... Nothing new here

[CentralNebWeather]

https://x.com/maxarcherwx/status/1712565339970552047?s=46&t=4GpiVIfA4IEj_VYIsXGpRg

[Tom]

2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Yeah, this has a nice fall flavor to it. Might head up to Bay City and see how things are Saturday.

DTX:

 

Yes, and this would be THE best scenario for LES with arctic air involved if this was winter...nearly 2 days of NNE/NE winds!

[james1976]

Rain is just starting here. Wind is also picking up. Reminds me of a winter storm......just not cold enough yet Will be fun to see how this pans out in cycle 2. But for now let's see how much rainfall we can get and how much of the leaves will be dropping. Gonna be a raw day tomorrow. Upper 40s forecasted. 

[gabel23]

Dead center. 

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, james1976 said:

Rain is just starting here. Wind is also picking up. Reminds me of a winter storm......just not cold enough yet Will be fun to see how this pans out in cycle 2. But for now let's see how much rainfall we can get and how much of the leaves will be dropping. Gonna be a raw day tomorrow. Upper 40s forecasted. 

You don't have to go out too far into la-la land and maps start looking like we flipped a page already!

[OttumwaSnomow]

On monday all outlets said my county had a 70 to 90% chance of rain  for Wednesday, wed night, Thursday, Thursday night, Friday, Friday  night, Saturday.   I have .06 so far.  Today was almost wall to wall sun. Some agencies  still say 100% for Friday! GIVE ME A BREAK FROM THE NONSENSE..  On monday I looked at setup and thought "unless warm front produces Im just looking at dreaded dryslot"..  that is indeed been the case.   Im really  fed up with 3 things: 1) se iowa continous drought,  2) models are useless 3) forecasting  outlets that are absolutely  zero value, both  govt and private ones, as they seem not to care at all about  accuracy  in this generally  rural area. Nothing  is "normal or Average" anymore in this place!!!

[Tom]

@CentralNebWeather, I see there were a few TOR reports near your place...

[CentralNebWeather]

16 minutes ago, Tom said:

@CentralNebWeather, I see there were a few TOR reports near your place...

Yes. We had 2 warnings in 1 hour. Reports southwest, northwest, and southeast of me. Didn’t hear any reports of damage. Videos of twisters were over farmland. Spent a combined 45 minutes in our school tornado shelter. Tonight we have football at Cozad. It will be in the 30’s with north winds gusting to 35 mph. Brutal. Today winds may reach gusts of 60 mph. 

[Tom]

2 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Yes. We had 2 warnings in 1 hour. Reports southwest, northwest, and southeast of me. Didn’t hear any reports of damage. Videos of twisters were over farmland. Spent a combined 45 minutes in our school tornado shelter. Tonight we have football at Cozad. It will be in the 30’s with north winds gusting to 35 mph. Brutal. Today winds may reach gusts of 60 mph. 

Woah, that sounds like you had an intense experience!  Gotta love the weather in the Plains!

[gabel23]

Getting hit by wrap around precip. I may end up with .5" after all is said and done. Disappointed my area missed out on the heavy rain and severe weather but glad to see a strong system in our area. I think this might be a signature storm in the future for a lot of us. 

[Stormy]

 

Stormy

Posted 23 minutes ago

  2 hours ago, Stormy said:

About all the models show some heavy rain over or near my area today as the low rotates through later. We'll see how that pans out, and I'll believe it when I see it. This morning's rain of around 0.30" is decent, but less than I hoped for. 

 

Later....The models now have shifted the heaviest rain a bit further northeast for this afternoon, maybe because the now occluding front is moving a bit quicker, and is moving into Des Moines now. 

I finally realized there's a separate storm thread so moved my last comment here. 

Edited October 13 by Stormy

[hawkstwelve]

Well, to be honest, this storm ended up a bit underwhelming. 

Rain totals only ended up being 1.27 so far as the rain proved to be much less stratiform than deterministic models indicated. Many dry periods in between the occasional wave of heavier rain. Wind gusts were adequately strong but nothing particularly noteworthy. Looks like the highest gust reported at FSD yesterday was 46 mph, so we definitely did not mix as much as the CAMs thought we would. We got the occasional lightning and thunder but again, nothing too impressive.

While it was refreshing to have a cold, rainy, windy day yesterday it will ultimately end up pretty forgetful. Hopefully if this is a reoccurring system in this year's LRC the second go-around will be more exciting.

[Hawkeye]

10 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Well, to be honest, this storm ended up a bit underwhelming. 

Rain totals only ended up being 1.27 so far as the rain proved to be much less stratiform than deterministic models indicated. Many dry periods in between the occasional wave of heavier rain. Wind gusts were adequately strong but nothing particularly noteworthy. Looks like the highest gust reported at FSD yesterday was 46 mph, so we definitely did not mix as much as the CAMs thought we would. We got the occasional lightning and thunder but again, nothing too impressive.

While it was refreshing to have a cold, rainy, windy day yesterday it will ultimately end up pretty forgetful. Hopefully if this is a reoccurring system in this year's LRC the second go-around will be more exciting.

Yeah, it looked like there were a lot more dry pockets moving through the Sioux Falls area than models predicted.  The Sioux Falls radar precip accum looks pretty bare from Sioux Falls northward.

Speaking of which, there are lot of locations in southern Iowa that have received little to no rain.  Models badly missed on that area.  I was very fortunate to be under the first wave of rain near the warm front late Wednesday.

Regarding my area, this morning's cold front was a dud.  Most models had been predicting near an inch from it, but the rain was late to develop and organize, so I only got 0.22".  Now, most models are predicting a good line to form north of the low this afternoon and evening, which could drop good rain on CR.  We'll see.  My Wed-Fri total is currently 1.53".

 

[Stormy]

You can see where the dry slot and front are moving through central/southern Iowa on this radar loop. You can also see it as a thin line of clouds on visible satellite. I'm thinking the cells will form along and ahead of this feature this afternoon. 

[Stormy]

SPC increased the tornado risk a bit in central Iowa. 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

[Hawkeye]

Every model this morning has at least one inch of rain falling here this evening.  If the line pivots over us two inches is possible.