Oct. 11th-14th Severe Weather/Rain/Snow

[Tom]

@CentralNebWeather, I see there were a few TOR reports near your place...

[CentralNebWeather]

16 minutes ago, Tom said:

@CentralNebWeather, I see there were a few TOR reports near your place...

Yes. We had 2 warnings in 1 hour. Reports southwest, northwest, and southeast of me. Didn’t hear any reports of damage. Videos of twisters were over farmland. Spent a combined 45 minutes in our school tornado shelter. Tonight we have football at Cozad. It will be in the 30’s with north winds gusting to 35 mph. Brutal. Today winds may reach gusts of 60 mph. 

[Tom]

2 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Yes. We had 2 warnings in 1 hour. Reports southwest, northwest, and southeast of me. Didn’t hear any reports of damage. Videos of twisters were over farmland. Spent a combined 45 minutes in our school tornado shelter. Tonight we have football at Cozad. It will be in the 30’s with north winds gusting to 35 mph. Brutal. Today winds may reach gusts of 60 mph. 

Woah, that sounds like you had an intense experience!  Gotta love the weather in the Plains!

[gabel23]

Getting hit by wrap around precip. I may end up with .5" after all is said and done. Disappointed my area missed out on the heavy rain and severe weather but glad to see a strong system in our area. I think this might be a signature storm in the future for a lot of us. 

[Stormy]

 

Stormy

Posted 23 minutes ago

  2 hours ago, Stormy said:

About all the models show some heavy rain over or near my area today as the low rotates through later. We'll see how that pans out, and I'll believe it when I see it. This morning's rain of around 0.30" is decent, but less than I hoped for. 

 

Later....The models now have shifted the heaviest rain a bit further northeast for this afternoon, maybe because the now occluding front is moving a bit quicker, and is moving into Des Moines now. 

I finally realized there's a separate storm thread so moved my last comment here. 

Edited October 13, 2023 by Stormy

[hawkstwelve]

Well, to be honest, this storm ended up a bit underwhelming. 

Rain totals only ended up being 1.27 so far as the rain proved to be much less stratiform than deterministic models indicated. Many dry periods in between the occasional wave of heavier rain. Wind gusts were adequately strong but nothing particularly noteworthy. Looks like the highest gust reported at FSD yesterday was 46 mph, so we definitely did not mix as much as the CAMs thought we would. We got the occasional lightning and thunder but again, nothing too impressive.

While it was refreshing to have a cold, rainy, windy day yesterday it will ultimately end up pretty forgetful. Hopefully if this is a reoccurring system in this year's LRC the second go-around will be more exciting.

[Hawkeye]

10 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Well, to be honest, this storm ended up a bit underwhelming. 

Rain totals only ended up being 1.27 so far as the rain proved to be much less stratiform than deterministic models indicated. Many dry periods in between the occasional wave of heavier rain. Wind gusts were adequately strong but nothing particularly noteworthy. Looks like the highest gust reported at FSD yesterday was 46 mph, so we definitely did not mix as much as the CAMs thought we would. We got the occasional lightning and thunder but again, nothing too impressive.

While it was refreshing to have a cold, rainy, windy day yesterday it will ultimately end up pretty forgetful. Hopefully if this is a reoccurring system in this year's LRC the second go-around will be more exciting.

Yeah, it looked like there were a lot more dry pockets moving through the Sioux Falls area than models predicted.  The Sioux Falls radar precip accum looks pretty bare from Sioux Falls northward.

Speaking of which, there are lot of locations in southern Iowa that have received little to no rain.  Models badly missed on that area.  I was very fortunate to be under the first wave of rain near the warm front late Wednesday.

Regarding my area, this morning's cold front was a dud.  Most models had been predicting near an inch from it, but the rain was late to develop and organize, so I only got 0.22".  Now, most models are predicting a good line to form north of the low this afternoon and evening, which could drop good rain on CR.  We'll see.  My Wed-Fri total is currently 1.53".

 

[Stormy]

You can see where the dry slot and front are moving through central/southern Iowa on this radar loop. You can also see it as a thin line of clouds on visible satellite. I'm thinking the cells will form along and ahead of this feature this afternoon. 

[Stormy]

SPC increased the tornado risk a bit in central Iowa. 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

[Hawkeye]

Every model this morning has at least one inch of rain falling here this evening.  If the line pivots over us two inches is possible.

[jaster220]

May be some virga on the periphery, but rain from Fargo to Buffalo is massive. If this were a winter storm, it seems that MSP, ORD, and DTW would all be sharing in a Sig snowstorm. Has that ever happened?? The only thing that comes to mind is that hybrid back in 2019, but while those 3 sites may have scored snow, I doubt it was warning-level at all (3). 

[Madtown]

.06 if rain on the day

 Forecasted. 5"

Get these busts outta the way now

[OttumwaSnomow]

Well  I managed .56 today from  the  spoke spinning around the low pressure.  Nothing  widespread, nothing  heavy, nothing severe.  But dampness  for a half hour.  Still extremely  disappointed  that this sys missed us so horribly.  But thankful for something.   .66 for October  no doubt yet another month of shortfalls.

[Stormy]

Sadly, but as expected, the rain has pivoted to the north of my area this evening. So I only had 0.83" so far today while rain has never really stopped in Cedar Rapids and just north. Still thankful for the 1.36" total since Wednesday! 

[Hawkeye]

I had 0.58" today up until the evening line moved in.  Since then, I've received another 1+".  My total since late Wednesday is now over 3".  This is, by far, the biggest precip event of the year for Cedar Rapids.

[Hawkeye]

My Wed-Fri total is 3.06".  4+" fell just barely west of me, from the far west to nw side of Cedar Rapids.

My 3.06" easily beats any MONTH since March.

[Tom]

8 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

I had 0.58" today up until the evening line moved in.  Since then, I've received another 1+".  My total since late Wednesday is now over 3".  This is, by far, the biggest precip event of the year for Cedar Rapids.

Did tracking this system sorta get you dialed in on tracking winter storms?  I'll be honest, this storm definitely kick started me into tracking storms and fine tuning all the data we get from all the models we have at our disposal.  Glad to hear you got what you've been yearning for a while.

[Hawkeye]

4 minutes ago, Tom said:

Did tracking this system sorta get you dialed in on tracking winter storms?  I'll be honest, this storm definitely kick started me into tracking storms and fine tuning all the data we get from all the models we have at our disposal.  Glad to hear you got what you've been yearning for a while.

I'm certainly not ready for cold and snow, yet, but 2023 has been SO boring, it's nice to be back in big storm mode.  A couple more big rain systems before winter would be nice.

[james1976]

The forecast was right on the money up here. We received a total of 1.95" and our Friday high was 48°. It's currently cloudy and 51°

[jaster220]

21 hours ago, jaster220 said:

May be some virga on the periphery, but rain from Fargo to Buffalo is massive. If this were a winter storm, it seems that MSP, ORD, and DTW would all be sharing in a Sig snowstorm. Has that ever happened?? The only thing that comes to mind is that hybrid back in 2019, but while those 3 sites may have scored snow, I doubt it was warning-level at all (3). 

 Guess my memory is a joke! Not any of them (MSP/ORD/DTW) had warning level snows with the PV intrusion system back in Jan '19. Mostly a 4-6" event for all three. I do think my hunch is likely correct. Probably impossible to get a strong system across those locations at the same time. Southern systems like this current storm bumps into a block, then will weaken as we have currently (SLP's moving S of E is almost always a death trend). Both MSP and ORD have scored enough qpf with this, but it looks likely DTW will NOT. This thing blew its strength west of here. It's a shadow of its former self over this way. Just a run-of-the-mill chilly rainfall tbh. 

[Stormy]

8 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

My Wed-Fri total is 3.06".  4+" fell just barely west of me, from the far west to nw side of Cedar Rapids.

My 3.06" easily beats any MONTH since March.

Finally some of the heaviest rain was right where it was needed the most! 

Here there was light rain and drizzle most of the night with another 0.20" bringing my total to 1.03" since early yesterday. Had 1.53" total with Wednesday. 

[OttumwaSnomow]

50 minutes ago, Stormy said:

Finally some of the heaviest rain was right where it was needed the most! 

Here there was light rain and drizzle most of the night with another 0.20" bringing my total to 1.03" since early yesterday. Had 1.53" total with Wednesday. 

A weekly total from whole system  is about .65 pathetic  since several models had me at 2 to even 6 inches.  Of course not like we needed it  at all with Ottumwa  airport  having a 16" deficit  for 2023.

[Tom]

That perfect lake plume into NE IL…

[Phil]

4 hours ago, Tom said:

That perfect lake plume into NE IL…

Lake effect rain. 

[jaster220]

DTW's had no shortage of moisture this summer, so I am not complaining like those in the parched areas.

But, this map certainly would be a classic example of "The Detroit Effect" regarding large systems. SWMI did fine, then it quickly went lame mode over SEMI.

12z NAM was down to 1/2" and I was hoping it was wrong, but alas it was (as usual) pretty darn accurate. Finished a bit shy at 0.46"

This one was an MSP/ORD party. DTW lost its invitation. 

[Phil]

First hints of fall color in the tree canopy today. Most trees are still green but can see some of the hues starting to change.

I think it’s going to turn quick because a few days ago there way nothing but deep green and some brown.