Oct. 11th-14th Severe Weather/Rain/Snow

[jaster220]

May be some virga on the periphery, but rain from Fargo to Buffalo is massive. If this were a winter storm, it seems that MSP, ORD, and DTW would all be sharing in a Sig snowstorm. Has that ever happened?? The only thing that comes to mind is that hybrid back in 2019, but while those 3 sites may have scored snow, I doubt it was warning-level at all (3). 

[Madtown]

.06 if rain on the day

 Forecasted. 5"

Get these busts outta the way now

[OttumwaSnomow]

Well  I managed .56 today from  the  spoke spinning around the low pressure.  Nothing  widespread, nothing  heavy, nothing severe.  But dampness  for a half hour.  Still extremely  disappointed  that this sys missed us so horribly.  But thankful for something.   .66 for October  no doubt yet another month of shortfalls.

[Stormy]

Sadly, but as expected, the rain has pivoted to the north of my area this evening. So I only had 0.83" so far today while rain has never really stopped in Cedar Rapids and just north. Still thankful for the 1.36" total since Wednesday! 

[Hawkeye]

I had 0.58" today up until the evening line moved in.  Since then, I've received another 1+".  My total since late Wednesday is now over 3".  This is, by far, the biggest precip event of the year for Cedar Rapids.

[Hawkeye]

My Wed-Fri total is 3.06".  4+" fell just barely west of me, from the far west to nw side of Cedar Rapids.

My 3.06" easily beats any MONTH since March.

[Tom]

8 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

I had 0.58" today up until the evening line moved in.  Since then, I've received another 1+".  My total since late Wednesday is now over 3".  This is, by far, the biggest precip event of the year for Cedar Rapids.

Did tracking this system sorta get you dialed in on tracking winter storms?  I'll be honest, this storm definitely kick started me into tracking storms and fine tuning all the data we get from all the models we have at our disposal.  Glad to hear you got what you've been yearning for a while.

[Hawkeye]

4 minutes ago, Tom said:

Did tracking this system sorta get you dialed in on tracking winter storms?  I'll be honest, this storm definitely kick started me into tracking storms and fine tuning all the data we get from all the models we have at our disposal.  Glad to hear you got what you've been yearning for a while.

I'm certainly not ready for cold and snow, yet, but 2023 has been SO boring, it's nice to be back in big storm mode.  A couple more big rain systems before winter would be nice.

[james1976]

The forecast was right on the money up here. We received a total of 1.95" and our Friday high was 48°. It's currently cloudy and 51°

[jaster220]

21 hours ago, jaster220 said:

May be some virga on the periphery, but rain from Fargo to Buffalo is massive. If this were a winter storm, it seems that MSP, ORD, and DTW would all be sharing in a Sig snowstorm. Has that ever happened?? The only thing that comes to mind is that hybrid back in 2019, but while those 3 sites may have scored snow, I doubt it was warning-level at all (3). 

 Guess my memory is a joke! Not any of them (MSP/ORD/DTW) had warning level snows with the PV intrusion system back in Jan '19. Mostly a 4-6" event for all three. I do think my hunch is likely correct. Probably impossible to get a strong system across those locations at the same time. Southern systems like this current storm bumps into a block, then will weaken as we have currently (SLP's moving S of E is almost always a death trend). Both MSP and ORD have scored enough qpf with this, but it looks likely DTW will NOT. This thing blew its strength west of here. It's a shadow of its former self over this way. Just a run-of-the-mill chilly rainfall tbh. 

[Stormy]

8 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

My Wed-Fri total is 3.06".  4+" fell just barely west of me, from the far west to nw side of Cedar Rapids.

My 3.06" easily beats any MONTH since March.

Finally some of the heaviest rain was right where it was needed the most! 

Here there was light rain and drizzle most of the night with another 0.20" bringing my total to 1.03" since early yesterday. Had 1.53" total with Wednesday. 

[OttumwaSnomow]

50 minutes ago, Stormy said:

Finally some of the heaviest rain was right where it was needed the most! 

Here there was light rain and drizzle most of the night with another 0.20" bringing my total to 1.03" since early yesterday. Had 1.53" total with Wednesday. 

A weekly total from whole system  is about .65 pathetic  since several models had me at 2 to even 6 inches.  Of course not like we needed it  at all with Ottumwa  airport  having a 16" deficit  for 2023.

[Tom]

That perfect lake plume into NE IL…

[Phil]

4 hours ago, Tom said:

That perfect lake plume into NE IL…

Lake effect rain. 

[jaster220]

DTW's had no shortage of moisture this summer, so I am not complaining like those in the parched areas.

But, this map certainly would be a classic example of "The Detroit Effect" regarding large systems. SWMI did fine, then it quickly went lame mode over SEMI.

12z NAM was down to 1/2" and I was hoping it was wrong, but alas it was (as usual) pretty darn accurate. Finished a bit shy at 0.46"

This one was an MSP/ORD party. DTW lost its invitation. 

[Phil]

First hints of fall color in the tree canopy today. Most trees are still green but can see some of the hues starting to change.

I think it’s going to turn quick because a few days ago there way nothing but deep green and some brown.