Will Chicago receive more snow than Minneapolis this winter?

[Hoosier]

Thought this would be a fun little question.  And I mean the total snowfall from first to last flake, not the DJF total.  If your vote is yes, then vote for how much you think Chicago will win by.

fyi, Minneapolis received 70.1" MORE snow than Chicago in 2022-23 (90.3" to 20.2"), which is the greatest disparity on record in a given season between the 2 cities.  

The most that Chicago has outsnowed Minneapolis by is 33.3", back in 1917-18 (Chicago 64.1", Minneapolis 30.8")

Current snowfall averages for the 2 cities are as follows:

Minneapolis:  51.2"

Chicago:  38.4"

 

[jaster220]

I think this winter's track will "hate" MSP lol after what they've gotten recently. What I'm less confident in is how much it's going to luv on ORD, so I went slightly more. It is pretty crazy that spread, considering MSP averages only 13" more per season. Talk about an imbalance that nature needs to remedy!

[Hoosier]

5 hours ago, jaster220 said:

I think this winter's track will "hate" MSP lol after what they've gotten recently. What I'm less confident in is how much it's going to luv on ORD, so I went slightly more. It is pretty crazy that spread, considering MSP averages only 13" more per season. Talk about an imbalance that nature needs to remedy!

I went with 'no', but I think it'll be much much closer than last year.  Maybe Minneapolis +10" or something.

[Tom]

I'm going with a NO vote and its basically going off pure gut feeling even though I really believe that storm track will favor the MW/Lower Lakes/OHV and S Plains this year.  MSP will prob get some big storms early and late in the snow season, but I also feel  there will be a clipper pattern at times and potential "Hybrid" that should deliver up there.  

I will add and say that I strongly believe that the enhancement of Lake Michigan is a BIG wild card this cold season.  The pressure patterns and where the HP's have been tracking over the Upper MW/GL's has been very favorable this Autumn.  Now, that doesn't mean it'll play out in the Winter, but ORD can benefit Bigly if a storm produces system snow and back-end LES.  Heck, even if the area misses out on a storm to the South and there is an Arctic connection a NNE flow can deliver LES.  

Finally, and this is just for Sh!$$ n Giggle's, but b/c I moved out to AZ....well, you know I'll prob miss out on a Big Dog or two!

[jaster220]

/\ @Tom haha, yep you'll pay the price for desertion, lol. Lived in NWMI 7 winters and had ZERO Big Dogs. Ofc, after I moved they had several including 3/5/12 which I was able to enjoy via a timely visit to my old area in Traverse Bay region.

[Tom]

16 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

/\ @Tom haha, yep you'll pay the price for desertion, lol. Lived in NWMI 7 winters and had ZERO Big Dogs. Ofc, after I moved they had several including 3/5/12 which I was able to enjoy via a timely visit to my old area in Traverse Bay region.

Exactly!  More importantly, I’d like to see an awesome snow season for my family and their kiddos.  Winters have sucked the last few years, esp the lack of a decent snow cover and enjoy the white landscape.  Hope you all benefit together  

[jaster220]

16 minutes ago, Tom said:

Exactly!  More importantly, I’d like to see an awesome snow season for my family and their kiddos.  Winters have sucked the last few years, esp the lack of a decent snow cover and enjoy the white landscape.  Hope you all benefit together  

On a side note. Last night my wife asked if we could move to Chicago! She absolutely loves downtown Chi-town. Unfortunately for her, I can't afford the rent in that district on a modest income. Not to mention I'm a small town kid. Always enjoyed my visits there, but living every day is not the same ofc. Found that out moving to the "Gold Coast" tourist region of NWMI many moons ago.. 

[westMJim]

I went with yes. In looking at the past snow fall amounts I was surprised of the number of winters seasons when Chicago had more snow than Minneapolis. I went with 5.1 to 10.0 Inches more. I had a chance of moving to the Minneapolis area when I was still working my real job. But I turned it down as my wife felt that it would be too dry and cold in Minneapolis. 

[Hoosier]

4 hours ago, Tom said:

I'm going with a NO vote and its basically going off pure gut feeling even though I really believe that storm track will favor the MW/Lower Lakes/OHV and S Plains this year.  MSP will prob get some big storms early and late in the snow season, but I also feel  there will be a clipper pattern at times and potential "Hybrid" that should deliver up there.  

I will add and say that I strongly believe that the enhancement of Lake Michigan is a BIG wild card this cold season.  The pressure patterns and where the HP's have been tracking over the Upper MW/GL's has been very favorable this Autumn.  Now, that doesn't mean it'll play out in the Winter, but ORD can benefit Bigly if a storm produces system snow and back-end LES.  Heck, even if the area misses out on a storm to the South and there is an Arctic connection a NNE flow can deliver LES.  

Finally, and this is just for Sh!$$ n Giggle's, but b/c I moved out to AZ....well, you know I'll prob miss out on a Big Dog or two!

You bring up an interesting point.  Ninos are known for a more active STJ, but after the parade of Ninas and some potential "atmospheric memory", I have to wonder if there may be more northern stream action than what we would expect in a Nino like this.

[james1976]

MSP is at 2.7" so far this season. This is a good debate but I'm gonna go with MSP getting more. Not cuz I live here now but still feeling like we'll have a decent season. 

[Hoosier]

19 minutes ago, james1976 said:

MSP is at 2.7" so far this season. This is a good debate but I'm gonna go with MSP getting more. Not cuz I live here now but still feeling like we'll have a decent season. 

Chicago is currently at 0.9"

Pretty meaningless this early of course.

[Tom]

18 hours ago, sumweatherdude said:

The first full year I lived in KC after moving back from Chicago, we got more snow than Chicago.  Weird things do happen.

I'm hoping this will work in my favor out here so I can head up into the mountains and experience days on end of snow falling in a nice cabin.  Those were my dreams as a kid and I want to fulfill that this season!

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

I'm hoping this will work in my favor out here so I can head up into the mountains and experience days on end of snow falling in a nice cabin.  Those were my dreams as a kid and I want to fulfill that this season!

As a kid of that 70's Show, I was blessed to see and experience some of the most historic winters for The Mitt. But ofc, along came the late 80's streak of dud winters. My subsequent move to the snow-belt of NWMI in 1990 was able to fulfil that dream of living in a winter paradise. Back then, young couples still bought "starter homes" so my place was modest by comparison, but every time I see pictures from the guy in NWI, that's pretty much just what I enjoyed for 7 yrs.

[jaster220]

51 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said:

I told my wife Flagstaff is one of the towns we should think about someday for retirement.  Plenty of snow and plenty of sunshine too.  Is that the area you're thinking about?

The mountain west is awesome. And you can always go down in the valleys for a break if winter gets a bit harsh or long. To some extent, SCA has it even better with the mountains and the ocean sub-tropical climate. But, ofc you've got the crowds and the costs that come with. 

[Tom]

1 hour ago, sumweatherdude said:

I told my wife Flagstaff is one of the towns we should think about someday for retirement.  Plenty of snow and plenty of sunshine too.  Is that the area you're thinking about?

Yup, that area prob during the Holidays with all the Christmas Decor and Lights...then maybe later in the season somewhere in the White Pine Mountains over by Pinetop/Lakeside and near the Sunrise Ski Resort.

[Tom]

34 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

As a kid of that 70's Show, I was blessed to see and experience some of the most historic winters for The Mitt. But ofc, along came the late 80's streak of dud winters. My subsequent move to the snow-belt of NWMI in 1990 was able to fulfil that dream of living in a winter paradise. Back then, young couples still bought "starter homes" so my place was modest by comparison, but every time I see pictures from the guy in NWI, that's pretty much just what I enjoyed for 7 yrs.

You stole the words out of my mouth bc as a Kid I always dreamed of a winter with "snow tunnels" on the sidewalks, Snow on Snow and a sustained snow cover.  Back in the 90's, we had El Nino's and winters weren't that good if I remember, but as I grew more interested in the weather I recall Dec '00 was a big year down in Carbondale, IL at SIUC when I went my Freshman year.  Going forward, the snow seasons were much better esp the string of 5 Winters in a row of getting 50"+ seasons.  

With that being said, maybe now is the time in my life where I can explore the West and stay at places that have bountiful amounts of snow.  I'm sure you have that itch of seeing a Winter that finally has legs and can support snow on snow!

[Tom]

4 hours ago, sumweatherdude said:

I lived in Chicago during that stretch.  It was wonderful.   The northern suburbs really cleaned up during that time.  I remember at least a few storms where the rain/snow line split the metro.  

Yup, ORD on north really lucked out…I think we had 3 Niña’s in a row?  Can’t remember exactly.  Many many cutters and I remember vividly Madison scored 100” one season.  2007-08?  

[jaster220]

5 hours ago, Tom said:

Yup, ORD on north really lucked out…I think we had 3 Niña’s in a row?  Can’t remember exactly.  Many many cutters and I remember vividly Madison scored 100” one season.  2007-08?  

Ahhh... the days of the NW trend. Could set your clock by that, lol. Most consider it like 13-14 but sans the cold so snow depths were never around too long. What's odd is 07-08 even treated DTW to a huge season with Feb/Mar combining for 45". An entire season's worth in 2 months. Total was just under 72" at the airport. 

[MKEstorm]

7 hours ago, Tom said:

Yup, ORD on north really lucked out…I think we had 3 Niña’s in a row?  Can’t remember exactly.  Many many cutters and I remember vividly Madison scored 100” one season.  2007-08?  

Yep! 2007-2008. Milwaukee had 98.9 inches of snow that season! Every month during that winter had well above normal snowfall here!

[Tom]

8 hours ago, MKEstorm said:

Yep! 2007-2008. Milwaukee had 98.9 inches of snow that season! Every month during that winter had well above normal snowfall here!

I remember that season quite vividly as I bought a brand new Range Rover HSE Sport and drove it up to Castle Rock Lake the same day for a snowmobiling trip and recall how deep the "Snow Tunnels" were off the side roads.  It was such an wonderful experience to walk through 2-3 Feet of snow depths in the back yards.  It looked like a scene up in Alaska if you ever watched the shows on National Geo ( Life Below Zero: Next Generation).

[jaster220]

10 hours ago, MKEstorm said:

Yep! 2007-2008. Milwaukee had 98.9 inches of snow that season! Every month during that winter had well above normal snowfall here!

That was SEWI's version of SEMI's 2013-14. Doubt we'll see anything like those seasons for a while unfortunately.

[Hoosier]

4 hours ago, jaster220 said:

That was SEWI's version of SEMI's 2013-14. Doubt we'll see anything like those seasons for a while unfortunately.

What, you don't think it will happen this winter? 

07-08 and 13-14 were certainly nice winters and I can't complain, but as far as snow depth for me, February 2021 is the winner.  Eclipsed 2 feet which was quite a sight to see around here and fortunately I took plenty of pics.  I remember there were some longer range GFS runs that were trying to bring another storm that probably would've pushed my depth to at least 3 feet, but it never panned out.

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

What, you don't think it will happen this winter? 

07-08 and 13-14 were certainly nice winters and I can't complain, but as far as snow depth for me, February 2021 is the winner.  Eclipsed 2 feet which was quite a sight to see around here and fortunately I took plenty of pics.  I remember there were some longer range GFS runs that were trying to bring another storm that probably would've pushed my depth to at least 3 feet, but it never panned out.

(insert "I want to believe" meme). Uggh @ 2020-21. The winter that was significant both east and west of little ole Marshall. For all the great winters I've managed to bag, that was the first in a string of duds that continues to this day. I remember how Chicago region got slammed bigly. Congrats on hitting that depth, DTW even had 14" OTG after that massive arctic storm that put the hurt on TX. The one regret I have from 2013-14 winter is that I didn't get more/better photos. I moved all 100" by hand that winter and by February, the pile where my drive met the street was 8 feet high, which made for a lot of work throwing it up by hand. This is only photo of the PV Bliz I took (our first deep snow day) after cleaning things up in -41F WC! Thought there'd been a pole-shift to Yooperland.

[Clinton]

I'm taking Minneapolis

 

[Hoosier]

2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

(insert "I want to believe" meme). Uggh @ 2020-21. The winter that was significant both east and west of little ole Marshall. For all the great winters I've managed to bag, that was the first in a string of duds that continues to this day. I remember how Chicago region got slammed bigly. Congrats on hitting that depth, DTW even had 14" OTG after that massive arctic storm that put the hurt on TX. The one regret I have from 2013-14 winter is that I didn't get more/better photos. I moved all 100" by hand that winter and by February, the pile where my drive met the street was 8 feet high, which made for a lot of work throwing it up by hand. This is only photo of the PV Bliz I took (our first deep snow day) after cleaning things up in -41F WC! Thought there'd been a pole-shift to Yooperland.

The cleanup/aftermath after that Jan 2014 storm is certainly something I'll remember for a long time.  The roads were complete garbage for DAYS afterward because the extreme cold came in so fast on the heels of that storm and left a hard/thick layer of snow behind.  IIRC they opened and then reclosed I-65 a day or two later because of how bad it was.

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

I'm taking Minneapolis

 

Gotta wonder how much those precip patterns will hold over the next few months.  One thing that comes to mind is how much of a massive bust it would be if the southeast and mid-Atlantic stay that dry as it would defy Nino climo and basically every forecast out there.

[Clinton]

36 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Gotta wonder how much those precip patterns will hold over the next few months.  One thing that comes to mind is how much of a massive bust it would be if the southeast and mid-Atlantic stay that dry as it would defy Nino climo and basically every forecast out there.

California after getting their drought broken last year in a La Nina could go back into one with an El Nino.  I'm really hoping the Euro and CMC are right with the upcoming storm.

[jaster220]

16 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Gotta wonder how much those precip patterns will hold over the next few months.  One thing that comes to mind is how much of a massive bust it would be if the southeast and mid-Atlantic stay that dry as it would defy Nino climo and basically every forecast out there.

I'd have to see what I saved in the archives, but iirc NOAA's seasonal was a huge bust in 13-14. With CA's historic snows last winter acted more like what a Nino would do out there. EC ofc got another shaft last winter. Going to be interesting to see if indeed if flips coasts this winter. 

 

[jaster220]

16 hours ago, Clinton said:

California after getting their drought broken last year in a La Nina could go back into one with an El Nino.  I'm really hoping the Euro and CMC are right with the upcoming storm.

Other than a snowless winter for the EC, last winter acted more like a Nino than a Nina. Would not surprise me if it goes the other way this winter. Or at least some combination of the two. Last winter's MSP-DTW connection might be more like a DTW-NYC connection this winter. I 2nd the notion wrt the upcoming storm.  

[Hoosier]

November isn't officially over quite yet, but these numbers won't change.

To date, MSP is at 3.2" and ORD is at 2.7", so it's a close race so far.  

In 2022, MSP was at 13.4" and ORD was at 1.1" through November.

[Hoosier]

Through 12/31/2023:

MSP:  5.3"

ORD:  3.9"

If some long range progs pan out, then it's possible that ORD will take the lead next week.  Obviously nothing is set in stone though.

[Hoosier]

By the way...

through 12/31, the combined total of 9.2" at MSP and ORD is the lowest amount since 2004, when the combined total stood at 8.0" 

[Hoosier]

As of the climate reports from earlier today, Chicago has moved into the lead... for now.

ORD:  5.8"

MSP:  5.4"

[Clinton]

28 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

As of the climate reports from earlier today, Chicago has moved into the lead... for now.

ORD:  5.8"

MSP:  5.4"

Topeka, KS has doubled them up while running 7 degrees above average in Dec lol. 

[Tom]

Anyone got the final #'s for Met Winter up in MSP??  I'm curious to know if MSP did in fact get less than ORD...it sounds like they did.

[MinnesotaSnow]

5 hours ago, Tom said:

Anyone got the final #'s for Met Winter up in MSP??  I'm curious to know if MSP did in fact get less than ORD...it sounds like they did.

11.1” during Met Winter. Sitting at 14.3” overall total, good for 2nd lowest total ever if we don’t see any more. Record lowest is 14.2”

[Hoosier]

5 hours ago, Tom said:

Anyone got the final #'s for Met Winter up in MSP??  I'm curious to know if MSP did in fact get less than ORD...it sounds like they did.

MSP did indeed get less than ORD during met winter.  MSP with 11.1" and ORD with 18.5".  However, as I mentioned in my original post, this question was for total snowfall from beginning to end, not just DJF.  So we'll have to wait a while to see what the final numbers are.

[Thunder98]

On 11/14/2023 at 5:19 PM, Clinton said:

California after getting their drought broken last year in a La Nina could go back into one with an El Nino.  I'm really hoping the Euro and CMC are right with the upcoming storm.

Thankfully the drought didn't return this year

[Beltrami Island]

ORD and Duluth battling it out 18.5" to 18.7" for the season so far.  I can believe ORD has beaten Duluth at some point over an entire cold season.  But, you'd have to be a fool to predict this little for Duluth to date.   

[Madtown]

4 minutes ago, Beltrami Island said:

ORD and Duluth battling it out 18.5" to 18.7" for the season so far.  I can believe ORD has beaten Duluth at some point over an entire cold season.  But, you'd have to be a fool to predict this little for Duluth to date.   

just incredible