11/19 - 11/22 Arklatex Low - Great Lakes/OHV Cutter???

[Tom]

3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Models have slowly trended wetter for mby, a nice rainfall looks likely.

If there is any optimism, I will say, that the forecast out here trended wetter very late in the game and the NWS in PHX increased totals last night.  I had some heavy down pours earlier this am and will have more incoming.  I like how the Euro came back with a mature looking SLP coming out of the Arklatex area and showing a defo band over your place into N IL/N IN. Hopefully it doesn't fade so fast in future runs for the Lower Lakes.

[Tom]

These are subtle changes, but the 12z GFS is less flat and more amped on this run.  The last 4 runs illustrate what I was suggesting regarding the 0z Euro from last night.

 

[jaster220]

9 hours ago, Tom said:

These are subtle changes, but the 12z GFS is less flat and more amped on this run.  The last 4 runs illustrate what I was suggesting regarding the 0z Euro from last night.

 

Thx Tom, it's not a snowstorm for us, but it would boost my enthusiasm for winter a notch if somehow we could score decent qpf out of this (more than the .2-.4 those maps were showing). I mentioned 02-03 as a strong analog contender and how Detroit rode the northern edge on OHV systems all season. Decided to look at the stats and I was correct on that account (the 3 big storms never reached 6"), but I was surprised to find the seasonal total was 135% of normal. So it was actually a very good AN winter here. 

IF, and right now its a huge IF, we could get more of the 04-05 flavor, things could go even better regarding larger storm event totals (8.4" Dec, 12.2" Jan). But, I am keeping my excitement in check until proven warranted.

Let's see how it plays out. DTX has been steadily increasing POP's in my grid:

 

 

[jaster220]

9 hours ago, Tom said:

These are subtle changes, but the 12z GFS is less flat and more amped on this run.  The last 4 runs illustrate what I was suggesting regarding the 0z Euro from last night.

 

NWS - Similar to the 11/8 surprise system when some (T)race amounts were logged for that morning, this could do a repeat per their AFD:

Rainfall probabilities across Se Mi have increased Monday night and
Tuesday as the upper wave and associated sfc low begin to lift
northeast. Agressive mid level moisture transport along the nose of
a strong mid level jet will occur Monday night, with increasing
upper jet divergence taking hold on Tuesday within the warm conveyor
belt. There will be a good deal of low level dry air in place Monday
night which may delay onset of preceip to a degree. The expected
strength of the mid level isentropic ascent and moisture transport
should overcome this. The dry air will reduce wet bulb zero heights
and will allow for some brief snow across the area, primarily north
of Detroit. Duration of any snow will be brief as warm moist
advection drives enough warmth into the low levels to fully support
all rain, with rain chances into Tuesday looking to be between 70
and 100 percent.

[Clinton]

Nice and much needed rainfall expected this evening through tomorrow.

[jaster220]

35 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Nice and much needed rainfall expected this evening through tomorrow.

Presuming enough cold air was in place, the way this pivots you'd be looking at a potential Big Dog it seems. GEM and GFS have a Miller-B style x-fer from NWOH to the coastal regions of NC causing another weakening system up my way. 0z Euro doesn't portray such and seems would be better for us here. I haven't looked at precip plots because for a rainer it's too early and I've never really been into tracking rainfall, even if it's flood-level stuff. Whatever falls, falls lol. I'm sure that's how the majority of the general population feels about the white gold, lol. 

[jaster220]

@Tom 

Text book STJ system. Maybe in mid-winter we could see some cold air in place along and north of the track.

as a second low pressure develops and moves in from the Ark-
La-Tex. This will strengthen the pressure gradient over the Great
Lakes tomorrow, with the low pressure system moving into the Ohio
River Valley on Tuesday. Unsettled weather and breezy conditions are
expected as the low approaches the Ohio River Valley and southern
Great Lakes.

[Tom]

31 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

@Tom 

Text book STJ system. Maybe in mid-winter we could see some cold air in place along and north of the track.

as a second low pressure develops and moves in from the Ark-
La-Tex. This will strengthen the pressure gradient over the Great
Lakes tomorrow, with the low pressure system moving into the Ohio
River Valley on Tuesday. Unsettled weather and breezy conditions are
expected as the low approaches the Ohio River Valley and southern
Great Lakes.

What office wrote this?  My gut was right when I thought the models were going through some mid-range mayhem.  I think the Euro is still wrong with this storm and the CAM's are starting to really pin down on a bonafide healthy and mature storm as it cuts up into the Lower Lakes.  Should be a wild storm down in Texarkana/Arklatex Region as the 2nd season of Severe Wx kicks off in earnest.

 

[Tom]

I know this storm isn't going to produce much snow, if at all, maybe some back-end snow showers for some of you but it does appear the N GL's will get some snow out of this.  What is likely to happen is a pretty large snow cover to unfold across Ontario and that implies there will be a blanket of white gold.  Going forward, it only bodes well for those of you across the GL's as the cold air will build.

[jaster220]

5 hours ago, Tom said:

What office wrote this?  My gut was right when I thought the models were going through some mid-range mayhem.  I think the Euro is still wrong with this storm and the CAM's are starting to really pin down on a bonafide healthy and mature storm as it cuts up into the Lower Lakes.  Should be a wild storm down in Texarkana/Arklatex Region as the 2nd season of Severe Wx kicks off in earnest.

 

Meant to show that was my very own DTX's overnight AFD. I am interested in exactly where the models come into agreement on the SLP track. That ofc is always a make-or-break deal here in the Metro. 

Is this system a re-visit of this back in June which delivered 0.64" qpf at DTW on a NNE wind? Either way, this will mark the 2nd legit storm this month for SEMI. 

[jaster220]

Quote

I am interested in exactly where the models come into agreement on the SLP track. That ofc is always a make-or-break deal here in the Metro. 

This morning's 12z GFS and Euro take the SLP up to S Lk Huron. Meanwhile the R/GEM x-fer from WOH over to the EC. This is what I'm watching. IF the more northerly progression wins out, NMI could see a mix and/or coating perhaps before the moisture pulls eastward.

[jaster220]

On 11/18/2023 at 11:12 AM, Tom said:

These are subtle changes, but the 12z GFS is less flat and more amped on this run.  The last 4 runs illustrate what I was suggesting regarding the 0z Euro from last night.

 

Great call in noticing that jet streak movement. 

DTX:

Quote

.HYDROLOGY...

Widespread rain will work into the area late Monday night and focus
on Tuesday as low pressure tracks through the area. Moisture
profiles for this system are around the 90th percentile for November
21. This gives increasing confidence for rainfall amounts of one
half an inch or more for many locations. Local probabilistic
guidance suggests that local rainfall totals could perhaps approach
one inch, especially for the metro Detroit region south to the Ohio
border. Rain will shift quickly east of the region Tuesday night.
This rainfall should not create any notable flooding issues with
only ponding of water on roadways and possible minor flooding issues
in the usual susceptible low lying and poor drained areas.
 

 

[gabel23]

Well just another disappointment in the drought stricken areas of eastern Nebraska. Unless wrap around brings more will end up well short of forecast. Drought breads drought. 

[Clinton]

The 21 day dry streak came to an end yesterday afternoon and so far .40 in of rain have fallen. I'm looking for an additional half inch today and tonight. The highest totals once again have been in eastern Kansas up through KC and NW Missouri where 1-2 inches have fallen. 

[Tom]

I'm seeing some encouraging signs that this system continues strengthening as it cuts up into S IL/IN and pulls copious moisture northward into a healthy looking defo band....

[CentralNebWeather]

12 hours ago, gabel23 said:

Well just another disappointment in the drought stricken areas of eastern Nebraska. Unless wrap around brings more will end up well short of forecast. Drought breads drought. 

Yep, very poorly forecasted in our areas. Looks like I ended with 0.25”, when over 1.0” was in the forecast over Sunday and Monday. 

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

I'm seeing some encouraging signs that this system continues strengthening as it cuts up into S IL/IN and pulls copious moisture northward into a healthy looking defo band....

Time will tell, but I do like (for future storms) how it manages to keep the SLP south of here. Not that running up over DTX in November would be rare but it keeps the theme going from last winter in that regard. 

[Niko]

In NYC for the Thanksgiving holiday week. Some rain is looking likely for here tomorrow, but nothing of significance. No big nor-easters, thankfully, as well. That will change though down the road, big-time for the i-95 corridor..

Note: Models are showing that Nino is at peak levels now, and will only decline from here on. As winter arrives, it goes  into a moderate nino, if not a weak nino.I think that we will get true, harsh winter conditions from mid January into mid March. That is just my thinking for now, if nino declines ,as predicted. Definitely not expected to be strong or very strong, so that is some good news.

[jaster220]

8 minutes ago, Niko said:

In NYC for the Thanksgiving holiday week. Some rain is looking likely for here tomorrow, but nothing of significance. No big nor-easters, thankfully, as well. That will change though down the road, big-time for the i-95 corridor..

Note: Models are showing that Nino is at peak levels now, and will only decline from here on. As winter arrives, it goes  into a moderate nino, if not a weak nino.I think that we will get true, harsh winter conditions from mid January into mid March. That is just my thinking for now, if nino declines, as predicted. Definitely not expected to be strong or very strong, so that is some good news.

I would agree that it is better than a continued warming into super/mega Nino threshold. But, sometimes there is an atmospheric lag-time though. So, while ENSO may have cooled, the effects aren't too quick to effect on our real wx. Anyways, looks like your wish for nice travel conditions has happened for ya. Later this winter, when the next HECS is imminent, you can play Jim Cantore in downtown Chicago for GHD-1, except you'll be in Central Park no doubt.   

[jaster220]

@Hoosier It looks like that slight bump in the jet will treat Chicago/your area much better than originally expected:

Quote

AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
604 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 248 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023

Through Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGES:

* Spotty showers develop from the south this afternoon, with more
  widespread rainfall expected later tonight into early Tuesday. A
  soaking rainfall, with highest amounts of 0.75"-1.00"+,
  continues to be favored for areas east of the I-55 corridor.

* Rain ends from west to east late Tuesday morning and afternoon.

* Blustery east winds gusting up to 25 mph today, shift north-
  northwest with gusts around 30 mph by Tuesday afternoon. Temps
  steady/falling in the lower 40s with wind chills in the 30s
  Tuesday afternoon.

This would be a nice system in mid-winter form. Iirc, last winter the S Stream systems just brushed your area and focused more favorably for DTW than ORD. The one on 1/25 for example:

 

 

[Bryan1117]

2 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Yep, very poorly forecasted in our areas. Looks like I ended with 0.25”, when over 1.0” was in the forecast over Sunday and Monday. 

Picked up 0.25” here as well, which was about what I expected (we might pick a bit more with the deformation band as it rotates back west today)… just frustrating to watch these systems dry out as they move into the central plains states. I am glad that we got some type of moisture this week, especially since the upcoming Black Friday weekend now looks cold and dry here.

There just isn’t any type of signal we are going to bust out of this drought worsening pattern, I continue to wait for things to change (whenever that is)!

[jaster220]

I was out on an errand and the winds have increased gusting near 30 mph. Many leaves blowing around. With WC's in the mid-30s and now overcast grey skies, its easy to see what this would look like in a future cycle. 

[jaster220]

6 hours ago, Tom said:

I'm seeing some encouraging signs that this system continues strengthening as it cuts up into S IL/IN and pulls copious moisture northward into a healthy looking defo band....

I know I mentioned having cold air to work with in future cycles. But tbh, in keeping with last winter's theme the S Stream systems never had true fresh arctic air to work with. The 12/23-24 storm came into warm conditions with a rain->snow scenario with the bitter air after the fact. Both other storms were very marginal temps as I suspect this one would be, even 4 or 6 weeks from now. Nino's are known to bring us a lot of split flow and here we see it again. 

[Tom]

4 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I know I mentioned having cold air to work with in future cycles. But tbh, in keeping with last winter's theme the S Stream systems never had true fresh arctic air to work with. The 12/23-24 storm came into warm conditions with a rain->snow scenario with the bitter air after the fact. Both other storms were very marginal temps as I suspect this one would be, even 4 or 6 weeks from now. Nino's are known to bring us a lot of split flow and here we see it again. 

It was almost every single storm last year where "timing" was messed up and what "coulda" been.  I was soooo frustrated and maybe that was my last straw and gave up on winters in the Midwest and why it was time for me to head out west!  I'm with ya though, this winter I think the S Stream is dominant and I will add that I am relying on the Euro and JMA seasonal to nail the JAN-MAR forecast of it being much colder so we will see plenty of cold air around to tap.  This storm next cycle...Look out!

[jaster220]

39 minutes ago, Tom said:

It was almost every single storm last year where "timing" was messed up and what "coulda" been.  I was soooo frustrated and maybe that was my last straw and gave up on winters in the Midwest and why it was time for me to head out west!  I'm with ya though, this winter I think the S Stream is dominant and I will add that I am relying on the Euro and JMA seasonal to nail the JAN-MAR forecast of it being much colder so we will see plenty of cold air around to tap.  This storm next cycle...Look out!

Yeah, this system coming into legit cold would be impressive. Let's hope that comes to fruition as they are showing. 

[mlgamer]

This is a nice looking system on radar. I'm getting into the dry slot a bit, but this is a system to keep an eye on during future cycles. I have picked up almost 1" of rain so far which was much needed and much welcomed.

[tStacsh]

37 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Yeah, this system coming into legit cold would be impressive. Let's hope that comes to fruition as they are showing. 

This looks like a perfect track for my area.  Would've could've should've been a nice 6" incher plus.   Hope it repeats.  

[jaster220]

57 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

This looks like a perfect track for my area.  Would've could've should've been a nice 6" incher plus.   Hope it repeats.  

Unless we spike towards midnight, this will be the coldest day at DTW since the 1st. Currently 39F/31F WC

Temps are currently in the 20s just north of Toronto. Seems that region will be our cold source for future version(s) of this set-up.

[Timmy Supercell]

These are gnarly. The one by Natches, MS might have some big hail in it. 

[jaster220]

I liked this from the TAF for DTW:

Quote

After a brief lull in gustiness, renewed mixing affords an increase in gust potential from
the east early Tuesday.

 

[jaster220]

 

Lotta moisture with this. A nice SLP presentation. DTX mentioning that this will come right over top of us, while elsewhere in their pm write-up (multiple contributors ofc) they mention it staying just to our south basically going across Erie into Lk Ontario. Hoping to see qpf on the higher end of forecast for a change. Not to mention we could use the moisture. 

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Unless we spike towards midnight, this will be the coldest day at DTW since the 1st. Currently 39F/31F WC

Temps are currently in the 20s just north of Toronto. Seems that region will be our cold source for future version(s) of this set-up.

Currently, the freezing line is not more than a county or two ENE of here across S ONT. Even some stations reporting 32F in SEMI. Makes me think that there is more potential for mixy p-type than the offices have been willing to accept. Just then I noticed the NCEP map and sure enough, they have the mixed p-type line just about splitting Detroit. Stubborn cold HP in ONT.

[jaster220]

How often do you see returns over KOMA and KTOL from the same storm whose SLP is several states away? Returns trying to show SN over parts of WMI. Kind of surprising how close this is to a winter event considering there was no adverting it as such and no dump of arctic air beforehand. 

[jaster220]

DTW hourly calling for 0.82" and blustery conditions late morning/midday:

[jaster220]

From an APX update

Quote

Precip will develop northward, pushing into southern portions of our area after 2am.
The leading edge of the precip shield will be capable of producing snow, especially over
the higher elevations.

 

[westMJim]

3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Returns trying to show SN over parts of WMI

No snow here but a cold rain with a temperature of 34 here in MBY

[jaster220]

4 minutes ago, westMJim said:

No snow here but a cold rain with a temperature of 34 here in MBY

APX mentioning it was on their radar too but just virga. 

Single digit temps in Canada feeding cold air into this system's leading edge making it a close call.  

[Clinton]

.75 is the final rainfall tally for mby. Nice storm and one I hope repeats a couple times this winter.

[Tom]

Forgot to post this over the weekend as we had a rare mountain TOR up near Payson, AZ on Sun morning as the cold core anbd Upper Level energy moved through the northern part of the state.

 

https://www.fox10phoenix.com/news/national-weather-service-to-survey-wind-damage-from-possible-arizona-tornado

[mlgamer]

Storm total of 1.10" in MBY. That was the first REAL measurable rain here in November (officially 0.01" before this storm).