DECEMBER 2023 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

GFS pretty aggressive with the brief arctic punch. This would certainly trigger the still warm GL's

[Andie]

56* 

We’ll have rain all day and it’s very welcomed.  Temp will remain steady.  

[westMJim]

Yesterday was a very mild mid December day with a H/L of 50/25 there was no rain/snow. Grand Rapids is now -13.7” below where we should be in snowfall. There was 69% of possible sunshine the peak wind was 28MPH out of the SW. For today the average H/L is 36/25 the record high of 62 was set in 2012 and the record low of -7 was set in 1917. The wettest was in 1893 with 2.25” the most snowfall of 6.7” was in 1987 the most on the ground was 13” in 1970 and 1903. Last year the H/L was 40/32 and there was 0.5” of snowfall. With clear skies the overnight  low did drop down to 24 here in MBY.

 

[westMJim]

Some weather history for SW lower Michigan

1971: For the second time in 5 days, record-high temperatures are followed by record rains. The temperature hits 60 at Grand Rapids and 64 degrees at Lansing followed by about 2 inches of rain.

1987: A winter storm drops from 8 to 12 inches of snow from Grand Haven to Ludington. Muskegon sets a daily snowfall record of 12.1 inches of snow.

For SE lower Michigan 

1933, a high temperature of 61.2 degrees was recorded. This was a record high for this date in Detroit.

[chescowxman]

A couple beautiful mild mid December days on tap before the big rainstorm arrives Sunday PM. The storm Sunday into Monday could bring us one of our biggest rain events in quite a while. Some of the latest models are hinting at between 3" to 5" of rain across much of the area. It will be very mild through the storm with cold air coming back as the storm departs on Monday night. We could see some snow showers with the colder air by Tuesday. Christmas week looks seasonably cold and in fact the remainder of the year looks to remain normal to below average temperatures as we close out the year.

[Black Hole]

Models trended wetter up to the last minute. Looks like a pretty healthy rain event is about to begin here. HRRR showing 0.5-0.75" for my area.

[Tom]

This is one of the reasons why I enjoy and appreciate the weather out here...I mean, how can you not???  The cut-off low is certainly going to pump a nice ridge around here for about 5 days.  Big changes looming next week and the met's around here are anxiously waiting for the next system to arrive.  

Meantime, I'll enjoy this bonus warm and sunny weather...

 

"Southwest to Midwest" connection is dialing up...a part of me is saying there will be a Christmas Miracle for someone across the southern part of the Sub and East.  The 0z EPS is showing a little better connection to the cold up in Canada and showing more W NAMER ridging on Christmas Day.

 

 

0z EPS....last number of runs...come on baby, skoot that GOA low farther west!

 

[Minny_Weather]

NAMily is definitely wetter and a slight bit colder, bringing me up to 3".

Both the Chanhassen and FGF offices have finally noticed.

FGF:

Quote

Tonight and Saturday...The northern branch upper wave starts to
dig into SD and phase with the southern branch tonight, with
surface low pressure deepening over IA. Main precipitation
corridor should move down to I-94 and points southwards by
afternoon and continue into tonight. Temperatures will remain
warm through much of the day, but will start to cool down by
evening. Rain will start to mix with snow, then completely
change over at some point in the overnight. Snow chances have
increased, with at least a 60 to 90 percent chance for a tenth
of an inch by 18Z Saturday and 40 to 60 percent chances for an
inch or more. Bumped up snow amounts in our south, with the
25-75th percentiles range from a trace to almost 2 inches.
Again, uncertainty is very high due to temperatures and when the
changeover to snow occurs. But looking like there could be at
least some minor winter impacts tonight into tomorrow morning.
The upper low wraps up to our southeast and expecting at least
some moderation of temperatures during the day on Saturday as
winds return to the south ahead of the next northern branch
shortwave.

 

MPX continues to think this won't bring any more than an inch to anyone:

Quote

Today and tomorrow... Overnight temperatures have continued to
be on the warmer side of ensemble guidance. Despite this,
temperatures today will not be as warm as yesterday due to
increased cloud cover and expected precipitation. Temperatures
will still be much above normal however. As mentioned in
previous discussions this is a more complex synoptic setup with
two distinct waves moving across the central North American
continent today into tomorrow. The southern wave will start well
to our south and the northern over western Canada. As they
travel east forecast guidance brings them together over the
Midwest US. This would provide a track for the northern wave
over the Upper Midwest this giving us a source of forcing. What
sector the the associated surface low we are in will make a big
difference with this system. Warm sector will remain all rain,
while the cool sector could be more of a mix during the day and
snow at night. With the expected track we should see rain
through the day tonight with a transition to more of a mix of
rain/snow to all snow over parts of central Minnesota. How much
farther east and south this transition goes remains one of the
bigger uncertainties at this time. Overall snow accumulation is
likely under an inch where snow falls, but HREF max suggests a 2
inch snow is possible although unlikely. With this forcing and
ample moisture as the NAEFS shows widespread over 90th and most
of Minnesota over 99th percentiles this could be a very good
rain event for us. With normal precipitation rates for December
just over an inch this event could provide over half of our
normal December precipitation. Forecast soundings also show a
fairly rapid drying of the profile that does not favor drizzle,
so this looks like a clear rain or snow event. Cooler, but
still above normal, on Saturday with rain/snow coming to an end
from west to east through the day.

 

[gabel23]

10 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

0.40” of rain so far today, and more has just moved in. Surprising and much appreciated. I guess if we can’t get a snow, at least we are getting moisture. 

.10" for me. I watched the radar last night; as the rain lifted up into the worst of the drought stricken area it was like a wall. You could see on radar holes forming. Just can't catch a break in my area. 

[Tom]

Hmmm, so the Euro has the MJO coming out of the NULL phase right around Christmas into Phase 1...

[Jayhawker85]

2 hours ago, Andie said:

56* 

We’ll have rain all day and it’s very welcomed.  Temp will remain steady.  

It’s so interesting that we are in the middle of December with a large wet storm and there is barely a flake of snow to be found on the radar lol

[CentralNebWeather]

17 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

.10" for me. I watched the radar last night; as the rain lifted up into the worst of the drought stricken area it was like a wall. You could see on radar holes forming. Just can't catch a break in my area. 

That’s too bad. I would have thought you’d have seen a good amount. Just so hard to break a drought 

[mlgamer]

Right on schedule we have a potent little system moving through today. The circulation is evident on the radar loop below. Of course, no cold air so this is a rainer for MBY, maybe up to 1" and I have about 0.5" already.

After this period of rain ended in October we had a 21 day dry spell into mid-November. Because of this, I am skeptical of any *significant* precip until around Jan 9/10, even though the models have been showing systems close by at times around Christmas and New Year's Day. As always, just have to wait and see what comes along next.

 

[Madtown]

Still in the 40's and 50's at the end of the gfs run around New Years. I know I know it's out there, but the odds of a large scale cool down look to be about 0 at the moment. Second or third week of Jan, maybe. Bars and restaurants starting to get pretty antsy atm.

[Hoosier]

My feeling from a few weeks ago was that the final week of the month would have enough cold air to offer up snow chances for more areas of the region.  Not a cold pattern but cold enough.  That still looks to be the case imo, so it's more a matter of it producing something.  Unfortunately I'm about ready to completely write off any chances of a white Christmas locally as it looks like any opportunity would be more likely to occur after that day.

[tStacsh]

55 degrees and some sun.  Even the wind doesn't bother me without my jacket on.  If it aint gonna winter, might as well enjoy the "warmth".   I could golf in this.  

[Minny_Weather]

It's been 38°F with moderate rain for the past 2 hours. Also some fog in spots.

[mlgamer]

Not surprisingly at all, the AO and NAO are now both solidly positive after being solidly negative at the first of the month, even though they are both forecast to trend downwards. In fact, looks like they are (or will be) at their highest points since sometime before mid-August. It's always something...lol

[Minny_Weather]

Ptype JUST changed to snow. 36°F.

[gabel23]

God has gifted us with what appears rain coming out of the sky! Been light pretty much since 3 today. Checked my gauge when I got home from reffing and sitting at .55". Sucks it's not snow but this is the most rain I have seen since October so I'll take it! 

[Black Hole]

Ended up with 0.53" at my house today. First rain this month!

[Clinton]

.40 inches of rain so far at my house with light to moderate rain falling. My area is slowly chipping away at the drought, still along ways to go.  @mlgamer if only it was cold you would be right in the developing comma head.  

Gary does have snow in the forecast for KC for Jan 8th - 10th. Chicago peeps will want to pay attention then also (hint hint wink wink). We may see something earlier in January as well. 

[mlgamer]

40 minutes ago, Clinton said:

.40 inches of rain so far at my house with light to moderate rain falling. My area is slowly chipping away at the drought, still along ways to go.  @mlgamer if only it was cold you would be right in the developing comma head.  

Gary does have snow in the forecast for KC for Jan 8th - 10th. Chicago peeps will want to pay attention then also (hint hint wink wink). We may see something earlier in January as well. 

Hey Clinton, yeah no cold air around when you need it...lol. I'll get a storm total tomorrow,  but I have likely picked up around 1" or more of rain.

I've mentioned a couple of times that I'm looking at Jan 9/10 as my next chance of significant precip and if Gary thinks it may be snow that's even better.  I see more precip chances during January which could be snowy if we can keep some cold air around.  Feeling more optimistic than pessimistic about it for once...lol.

[james1976]

Currently 36 up here in the Twin Cities with light rain. Just .07" so far with this system.

[Minny_Weather]

Dry air. A wet dusting on the ground. Without a doubt this would have been way better had the temperature not been 33° the entire time. This is a good clipper, it just sucks that it only had warm air to work with.

[hawkstwelve]

00z GFS is back to showing a slightly stronger system around Christmas but there is just no cold air to work with. 

[Hoosier]

That storm at the end of the 00z GFS... I'd pay money.

[westMJim]

Here is the summary for December at the halfway point of December at the major locations in SW Lower Michigan. Grand Rapids. The mean so far is 37.2 that is +4.8° the high for the month so far is 58 on the 9^th and the low so far is 22 on the 13^th there has been just 0.1” of snowfall that is -8.9” below where we should be at this time. There has been 0.85” of precipitation average is 1.24” All 15 days of December so far have been warmer than average. At Lansing the mean there is also 37.2 but because it was colder there in the past. So that 37.2 is -5.6 above average. The high so far this month is 59 on the 9^th and the low so far 23 on the 13^th there has been just a trace of snow fall at Lansing and that is -5.9” below average. There has been a total of 0.93” of precipitation 0.94” is average. At Muskegon the mean there so far is a very mild 40.3 that is +6.6 above average. The high for the month so far is 58 on the 9^th and the low so far is a mild 28 on the 1^st there has been a total of 2.0” of snowfall average as of this date is 9.8” there has been 0.79” of total precipitation 1.24 is average. At Holland the mean there is a mild 39.0° so far the highest high of 58 was on the 9^th and the low so far is a very warm 30 on the 11^th and 13^th There has been a total of 1.0” of precipitation so far they do not report snowfall amounts at Holland.  

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 53/32 there was no rain or snowfall. The sun was out 80% of the possible time. Yesterday was a very warm mid December day across SW Michigan. While no records were set that 53 was the 5^th warmest December 15^th at Grand Rapids. The high of 55 at Lansing was the 4^th warmest. The high of 52 at Muskegon was the 3^rd warmest and the high of 52 at Holland was the 6^th warmest. For today the average H/L is 36/25 the record high of 63 was set in 2021 the record low of -2 was set in 1901 and 1989. The wettest was 0.97” in 1921 the most snowfall of 5.7” was in 1911 the most on the ground was 13” in 1970. Last year the H/L was 33/23 and there was 2.7” of snowfall.

 

Some weather history for today in SW Lower Michigan

1984: Mild weather prevails with record highs of 61 degrees at Lansing and Grand Rapids.

1989: Persistent cold weather continues during of the coldest Decembers on record in Lower Michigan. A record low of 2 below zero is recorded at Grand Rapids while another 5 inches of snow piles up at Muskegon, contributing to a monthly total of 77 inches there.

 

[jaster220]

7 hours ago, Hoosier said:

That storm at the end of the 00z GFS... I'd pay money.

Day AFTER I move. Yep, works for me too, lol.

[Clinton]

My rainfall total ended up at .65 inches.  Once again rainfall totals exceeded forecast.

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, westMJim said:

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 53/32 there was no rain or snowfall. The sun was out 80% of the possible time. Yesterday was a very warm mid December day across SW Michigan. While no records were set that 53 was the 5^th warmest December 15^th at Grand Rapids. The high of 55 at Lansing was the 4^th warmest. The high of 52 at Muskegon was the 3^rd warmest and the high of 52 at Holland was the 6^th warmest. For today the average H/L is 36/25 the record high of 63 was set in 2021 the record low of -2 was set in 1901 and 1989. The wettest was 0.97” in 1921 the most snowfall of 5.7” was in 1911 the most on the ground was 13” in 1970. Last year the H/L was 33/23 and there was 2.7” of snowfall.

 

Some weather history for today in SW Lower Michigan

1984: Mild weather prevails with record highs of 61 degrees at Lansing and Grand Rapids.

1989: Persistent cold weather continues during of the coldest Decembers on record in Lower Michigan. A record low of 2 below zero is recorded at Grand Rapids while another 5 inches of snow piles up at Muskegon, contributing to a monthly total of 77 inches there.

 

While '84 did not flip with a CAT-5 bliz like '98, it also ranks as one of the all-time winter season "flip the script" events for Michigan. Just looked at GRR and FNT and there were a couple of brief snows that Dec, but mostly an AN mild and low-snow month. Then the New Years Eve system was the first shot fired of a 6-week volley of winter's best which led to the amazing snow depths captured for my avatar image. Could we see something (anything) like that??

[Tom]

All I want for Christmas is a CHANCE for some Snow...is that much to ask?  If it aint gonna fall on Christmas, well maybe it will the day after?  Some interesting signs that someone across the Heartland may get their wish.  Let's see where the models trend bc the EPS is showing something could be brewing, albeit, a little warm for some but there could be a good snowstorm over the central Plains/MW.

Both the JMA/EURO showing the MJO with a beeline to Phase 1 just before Christmas Eve....

 

[Minny_Weather]

Only one night on GFS with a low less than 10° above average. And it's the last night of the run. 

Anyway, here's the inch that fell overnight lol

[chescowxman]

One last nice day before our Nor'easter impacts the area tomorrow PM. Most models show between 2" to 3" of rain across the area, winds will also increase with gusts as high as 35 mph possible before the rain tapers off around noon on Monday. There could be some snow showers Monday night into Tuesday then a seasonably chilly but dry week ahead.

Records for today: High 67 (1971) / -1 (1917) our earliest below zero reading on record / Rain 1.80" (1902) / Snow 7.3" (2020)

[mlgamer]

4 hours ago, westMJim said:

1989: Persistent cold weather continues during of the coldest Decembers on record in Lower Michigan. A record low of 2 below zero is recorded at Grand Rapids while another 5 inches of snow piles up at Muskegon, contributing to a monthly total of 77 inches there.

I mentioned in the autumn and winter discussion thread that Topeka set it's all time record low December 23, 1989 at -26F. December 1989 was a wild ride for lots of folks!

[Clinton]

If it keeps raining and staying warm I will have to mow my yard lol.  I have never seen things this green in December. 

[mlgamer]

MBY ended up with 1.12" total rain from this system.

Topeka December Fun Facts...

Topeka officially set a record rainfall amount yesterday (Dec 15) with 0.86" (old record 0.79" 1940).

The temp anomaly for December 1-15 is +4.9F. 

Dec 2 the high was 36F. All other highs have been in the 40s, 50s, or 60s.

[hawkstwelve]

0.07 in the bucket between yesterday and today which brings our total rainfall over the past 50 days to... 0.09 inches.

What an incredibly boring weather pattern so far this season. Just absolutely nothing remotely interesting beyond eye candy on the models in extreme fantasyland. Really hope we can eventually kick the Aleutian Low out up there and get a more amplified, dynamic pattern to take shape. Until then, more of the same ol crap with occasional influxes of very mild air and systems that can't get their act together. Yawn. 

[Andie]

On 12/15/2023 at 8:44 AM, Jayhawker85 said:

It’s so interesting that we are in the middle of December with a large wet storm and there is barely a flake of snow to be found on the radar lol

You’re right.  
Texas often sees Jan/Feb as real knock out winter storm time however.  
If we don’t get snow/ice, we get cold miserable rain.  I’m not going to let my guard down! Not just yet!