11/30 - 12/03 Strong SW Storm Followed by A Couple Waves of Energy

[Clinton]

A strong and wet storm is set to eject out of the 4 corners region later this week bringing substantial rains in the mid-west and possibly a narrow and well placed strip of snow for a few of our members.  On the heels of this storm 2 more waves may target Iowa and the Lake region with rain and snow.  Lots of questions on these waves regarding strength, available moisture and phasing remain.     

The 18z Run of the GFS and NAM 

If only this was all snow....   Maybe in 6 or 7 weeks 

 

[Niko]

The forecast for Friday looks very tricky for forecasters as this thing is screaming for a sneaky, surprise snowstorm for portions of S MI. My best guess is that from Detroit points northward will see some snowfall. Anything south will be a slopfest or even a cold plain rain. Again, it all depends on the movement of this. Stay tuned!

[Hawkeye]

The evening trend is a hair south in my area.  The Euro has never had anything getting up here.  It will be a narrow swath of snow, too, so I'll need a bit of luck to get any decent snow.

[OttumwaSnomow]

4 hours ago, Clinton said:

A strong and wet storm is set to eject out of the 4 corners region later this week bringing substantial rains in the mid-west and possibly a narrow and well placed strip of snow for a few of our members.  On the heels of this storm 2 more waves may target Iowa and the Lake region with rain and snow.  Lots of questions on these waves regarding strength, available moisture and phasing remain.     

The 18z Run of the GFS and NAM 

If only this was all snow....   Maybe in 6 or 7 weeks 

 

I don't Ike  being in the bullseye.  Usually  isnt where you want to be!! Lol

[Clinton]

23 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

I don't Ike  being in the bullseye.  Usually  isnt where you want to be!! Lol

Hopefully you'll land a 1/2 inch or more of rainfall and if ya get the snow that's just bonus. We gotta start on ending the drought!  Goodluck on both the rain and snow.

[Clinton]

@OttumwaSnomow looks like you got a WWA.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
257 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

...Frozen Mixture to Impact Southeast Iowa Late Tonight...

.A mixture of rain, light freezing rain and snow will occur over
portions of southern to southeast Iowa from late tonight to late
morning Friday. Slightly less than a tenth of an inch of ice and
snowfall up to 2 inches is expected with this storm.

IAZ062-073>075-082>086-092>097-301700-
/O.NEW.KDMX.WW.Y.0014.231201T0600Z-231201T1800Z/
Poweshiek-Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Union-Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-
Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne-Appanoose-Davis-
Including the cities of Grinnell, Indianola, Norwalk, Carlisle,
Pella, Knoxville, Oskaloosa, Creston, Osceola, Chariton, Albia,
Ottumwa, Bedford, Lenox, New Market, Mount Ayr, Lamoni, Leon,
Corydon, Seymour, Allerton, Humeston, Centerville, and Bloomfield
257 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
NOON CST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of
  up to two inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth of
  an inch.

* WHERE...Portions of southern and southeast Iowa.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to noon CST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions will impact the morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The bulk of the precipitation is expected
  generally along and south of a Creston to Grinnell line. Some
  uncertainty on precipitation type and amounts remain. A second
  system will bring additional light snow by Friday evening to
  portions of the same area.

[Tom]

4" of fresh new snow up in Snowbowl in Flagstaff....more on the way!!!

https://www.snowbowl.ski/the-mountain/weather-conditions-webcams/webcams/

[tStacsh]

This will be certainly a close call.  I'm on the northern fringe and should get some(mostly) snow out of this according to some of the shorter range models.  Heavy wet snow.    Or rain.  who knows.  The old yuck system.  We need colder air, because the pattern looks to remain active.  

HRR.  Doubt we get ratios 10:1   

 

 

[Hawkeye]

This is looking like less of a thing for Iowa as it gets closer.

[bud2380]

NAM still gives some hope.

 

[bud2380]

GFS has weakened a bit.  This is 10:1 but ratios are looking to be that or worse for the event.

 

[bud2380]

Canadian is a little better than the GFS.

 

[bud2380]

Canadian shows yet another wave of energy on Sunday.  I'm enjoying the active pattern, just wish one of these was a little stronger.  But still this early in the season to see this many chances at snow, I will take it.  

 

[bud2380]

UK isn't working on Pivotal for QPF and snow maps.  So back to my old school source.  Showing that trailing secondary piece of energy as well.

 

[bud2380]

The Euro is further south and weaker than almost all models.  Not impressed.

 

[Hawkeye]

The Euro has never had anything in Cedar Rapids, and it has had the entire system weaker and less snowy than other models.  It appears it has been correct.

[jaster220]

DTX

Quote

The outgoing forecast will advertise snowfall totals
ranging between 1-3 inches generally between M59 up into the Tri-
Cities and Thumb by tomorrow night, acknowledging the potential for a
period of moderate snowfall rates. Highly localized totals up to 4
inches are possible if this narrow corridor of banding sets up. As
of now this would be most favored north of I-69 where the thermal
profile is more favorable, but is certainly a low-end possibility
down into the M59 corridor. Snow ratios are expected to be wet to
normal between 8:1 to 10:1 snow to liquid ratio. Expect additional
tweaks to p-type and snowfall potential leading up to this event
given the likely narrow delineation between the rain/snow line. At
this time, wanted to put more emphasis on the potential for
accumulating snow.

And again, where have I seen this b4??

Quote

Widespread precipitation is expected to encompass all of SE MI early
tomorrow morning into tomorrow night. There will be a rain/snow line
that sets up roughly around Port Huron to Adrian, but some minor
adjustments to where this line sets up will be possible leading into
this event.

GFS trying to show that RN/SN line:

[bud2380]

EPS is a little more optimistic than the deterministic run.

 

[tStacsh]

Temps are way too marginal for me to get much out of this.   Going to have to get lucky with a heavy band or it won't accumulate much at all.   Forecast is only calling for an inch or 2.    

 

[Clinton]

Light rain and drizzle moved into my area at 2 which is earlier than I expected.  Hopefully I can get an inch or more tonight.

[GDR]

Gfs blast eastern iowa

[Hawkeye]

Most models have shifted the first two waves of precip southeast of Cedar Rapids.  Now a Saturday night into Sunday morning wave has popped up.

[Clinton]

This storm has been an efficient rain producer I'm already up to .71 inches, I should easily finish with over an inch of rain tonight.

[jaster220]

37 minutes ago, Clinton said:

This storm has been an efficient rain producer I'm already up to .71 inches, I should easily finish with over an inch of rain tonight.

Hopefully a good sign for yby deeper into winter when we have cold air to work with. Doesn't always work out that way unfortunately but CAW is a special combo when it does happen. 

[Black Hole]

I got a half inch of rain at my place today as this storm is lifting northeast. That looks to be it down here but at least it'll reset the fuels and keep the fires down. 

[Grizzcoat]

 Dry air for the first wave this AM in S/SE IA- is really winning out to no ones' surprise.

[Tom]

That's a nice looking defo band in the works...

[Tom]

Well, this is what I call the "Southwest to Midwest Connection"...this juiced up system is certainly delivering the moisture but nasso much cold air in place this time.  That will change as we get deeper into this month.  @Clinton glad to hear your scoring the much needed rain and put somewhat of a dent into the drought.

[Clinton]

8 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Hopefully a good sign for yby deeper into winter when we have cold air to work with. Doesn't always work out that way unfortunately but CAW is a special combo when it does happen. 

 

28 minutes ago, Tom said:

Well, this is what I call the "Southwest to Midwest Connection"...this juiced up system is certainly delivering the moisture but nasso much cold air in place this time.  That will change as we get deeper into this month.  @Clinton glad to hear your scoring the much needed rain and put somewhat of a dent into the drought.

I ended up with 1.5 inches, very helpful for the drought!  It was a great track for this storm so maybe the January version will deliver some white gold.

[Hawkeye]

Models seems to be shifting most of the snow to nw IL and southern WI.  I don't think Cedar Rapids will get anything.

[tStacsh]

Too bad it's warm.  And this will be the theme this winter.    Advertised as snow yesterday, but they quickly changed their minds.   All rain today.     

[jaster220]

58 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Too bad it's warm.  And this will be the theme this winter.    Advertised as snow yesterday, but they quickly changed their minds.   All rain today.     

Yesterday, we torched about 8 or 10 degrees higher than the forecast from earlier this week (DTW hit 54F vs 44F for instance). Guess they forgot it is still just November despite having looked and felt more like January for about 4 days. In the big Nino of 2015-16, I was fortunate to get 2 storm warned events, but it torched up to the mid-40s during the 3 days in between. I remember thinking that 2nd storm would be DOA due to warmth, but the CF raced south out of Canada with perfect timing to save the storm similar to today's event. Ofc, this is the front end shoulder season right now, so you're fighting climo to get a similar outcome.

[OttumwaSnomow]

3 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

 Dry air for the first wave this AM in S/SE IA- is really winning out to no ones' surprise.

I have .11 precip from this weak event. And not one flake or anything  frozen.  Another jip job! Drizzle and 33 degrees.  Wow so exciting

[tStacsh]

33 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Yesterday, we torched about 8 or 10 degrees higher than the forecast from earlier this week (DTW hit 54F vs 44F for instance). Guess they forgot it is still just November despite having looked and felt more like January for about 4 days. In the big Nino of 2015-16, I was fortunate to get 2 storm warned events, but it torched up to the mid-40s during the 3 days in between. I remember thinking that 2nd storm would be DOA due to warmth, but the CF raced south out of Canada with perfect timing to save the storm similar to today's event. Ofc, this is the front end shoulder season right now, so you're fighting climo to get a similar outcome.

I checked my ring cameras at my house and it is actually snowing/mix with some heavy wet flakes.  Here at my work in the city of GR it is mostly rain still.  I'm about 5 miles south of my house, so literally right on the R/S line.  

[jaster220]

5 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

I checked my ring cameras at my house and it is actually snowing/mix with some heavy wet flakes.  Here at my work in the city of GR it is mostly rain still.  I'm about 5 miles south of my house, so literally right on the R/S line.  

Yep, extremely close call there in the GR region:

[bud2380]

Well tonight looks like a bust around here now.  And some models are now showing snow tomorrow night instead.  Most notably the NAM, Canadian and HRRR.  The GFS has some, but it's pretty weak.  The Euro has very little.  So still no clue what will happen tomorrow.  

[tStacsh]

4 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Yep, extremely close call there in the GR region:

It was a battle, but mostly just a mix, except when the heavier precip fell.  1/4" of slop that immediately melted.   

[jaster220]

Around or slightly over 0.5" of rain has fallen so far from this 2-part first system. Classic overcast and dreary late autumn day.

[jaster220]

Not sure this is in the thread window or not?? but most models bring a decent clipper SE towards The Mitt next Tues. NAM reflecting only snow, while other models have a mixy mess, or a SN->RN transition scenario.

[jaster220]

Waiting on the 0z runs to finish, but this morning's 12z GEM was pretty generous this week with snow across NMI and regions left and right: