1/8-1/10 Panhandle Hook

[winterfreak]

What a huge disappointment .

[KTPmidMO]

12 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

What a huge disappointment .

I feel your disappointment winterfreak. Maybe we'll get in it next time.

[Clinton]

38 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

What a huge disappointment .

I think we're screwed but the GFS held

 

[Hoosier]

12 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Would be curious to get LOT's take on it, but I think that front end snow could have like 1" per hour rates.  Won't last super long though which will keep totals from getting too high.

Thanks LOT 

 

Issued at 300 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2024

Monday night through Saturday...

Key Messages:

* Snow arrives Monday night. Roughly 6 hour window in which snow
  rates may briefly exceed 1 inch per hour exists, particularly
  along and south of I-80 with a likelihood for challenging AM
  commutes.

[KTPmidMO]

18 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I think we're screwed but the GFS held

 

Not sure why but GEFS came south quite a bit with the southrn extent. Took me from 4.7" to 9.4."

[KTPmidMO]

GEFS 06z vs 12z

[winterfreak]

21 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I think we're screwed but the GFS held

 

Yeah, throw that out lol.

[Jayhawker85]

4 minutes ago, KTPmidMO said:

GEFS 06z vs 12z

This is turning into a nowcast situation with all the models being split. SIGH!

[CentralNebWeather]

1 minute ago, Jayhawker85 said:

This is turning into a nowcast situation with all the models being split. SIGH!

NWS Hastings mentioned in its forecast zone, that the southern counties will be tricky with thermal issues and where does the dry air punch into. I’m sure that will be the issue on the southern side of the storm as a whole.  Good luck. 

[Clinton]

10 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

This is turning into a nowcast situation with all the models being split. SIGH!

We shouldn't expect anything less lol

[Hawkeye]

Models are not totally favorable for Cedar Rapids.  The GDPS continues to track the main defo zone farther southeast and mostly misses us with it.  Totals here are down on the 12z run.  Likewise, the 12z UK is down as the best defo zone snow moves up through the Quad Cites.

[ATW]

50 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I think we're screwed but the GFS held

 

We’re screwed by thermals alone.

[uticasnow]

7 minutes ago, ATW said:

We’re screwed by thermals alone.

I know alot of people are dissapointed by this storm, but in all reality the thermal profiles and lack of cold air was known well before all the hoopla took place.

[ATW]

27 minutes ago, Clinton said:

We shouldn't expect anything less lol

I’m very surprised that channel 13 in Jeff City is still forecasting 3-5 inches with a spread of 1-8 inches. NWS STL has Jeff City getting 1-2. Interesting. He didn’t say what he thought Columbia would get.

[ATW]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

I think we're screwed but the GFS held

 

I’m surprised a Met out of Jeff city says that’s still a possibility

[mlgamer]

8 minutes ago, uticasnow said:

I know alot of people are dissapointed by this storm, but in all reality the thermal profiles and lack of cold air was known well before all the hoopla took place.

I think the disappointment for some is the storm taking a decisive turn north late in the game.

[uticasnow]

Just now, mlgamer said:

I think the disappointment for some is the storm taking a decisive turn north late in the game.

Yes

[uticasnow]

Actually it started trending north 4+ days ago from when we first started tracking the storm

[mlgamer]

14 minutes ago, uticasnow said:

Actually it started trending north 4+ days ago from when we first started tracking the storm

There was a general consensus of KS and MO being within the target zone for many days though there were questions about the thermals which I believe most folks were aware of. It has now trended mostly into NE and IA more or less since yesterday. I think that's how most KS and MO folks will look at it. Even local NWS offices issued watches that may not be needed.

[East Dubzz]

Finally get to fire up the new snow blower it appears.

[winterfreak]

Lol:

[CentralNebWeather]

12 Euro Kuchera  

[The Snowman]

NBM upped totals by a good 1-3" across the Omaha area and vicinity compared to the post-00z and post-06z runs; now has the city set for close to 9".

[CentralNebWeather]

15z SREF 10:1 ratio 

[Tony]

At least the 12z Euro is bringing back some love for the Chicago folks and a few others.

[uticasnow]

Just now, Tony said:

At least the 12z Euro is bringing back some love for the Chicago folks and a few others.

is The Euro trending southeast?

[Tony]

1 minute ago, uticasnow said:

is The Euro trending southeast?

Just took a quick glance at it but yes slightly SE of the others.

[ATW]

1 hour ago, uticasnow said:

I know alot of people are dissapointed by this storm, but in all reality the thermal profiles and lack of cold air was known well before all the hoopla took place.

Very true. The main issue is when does the rain turn to snow and how long will it snow. 

[Hoosier]

3 minutes ago, Tony said:

At least the 12z Euro is bringing back some love for the Chicago folks and a few others.

Compared to 00z Euro?  Actually looks a bit worse in most of N IL except maybe immediate Chicago.

 

[Hawkeye]

The UK, GDPS, and Euro all ticked back southeast this morning.  The heavier defo zone snow may miss me to the southeast.

[jcwxguy]

11 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

15z SREF 10:1 ratio 

looks like shifted south a little

[Tony]

1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Compared to 00z Euro?  Actually looks a bit worse in most of N IL except maybe immediate Chicago.

 

Was actually talking about immediate city/downtown as there was a little improvement there. As far as movement it did trend SE from most of the other models today.

[gimmesnow]

Come on baby, clobber a little north of Madison for me. Wanna spend my day riding fresh real snow and the trees at Cascade. Considering how pathetic December was for snowboarding I'll be so grateful!

[uticasnow]

Detroit was hinting thisi morning that temps are trending a little cooler than previously forecast:

 

A forecast trend from 24 hour ago has
been for a slight delay precipitation onset. It is quite possible
that snow will hold off until after the morning commute particularly
north of M 59 and/or I 69 corridors. The other change has been for a
slightly cooler atmosphere column by a degree or two Celsius. As a
result, there is lower confidence on when precipitation will
changeover to rain. Given the projected UVV response, more efficient
wet bulb cooling could delay the changeover to rain by an hour or
two. Thus, preference is to carry snow accumulations through noon for
many areas particularly in the higher elevation of the Irish Hills

[Black Hole]

It's more true here than anywhere else, but I know you all understand lol

[jcwxguy]

[Minny_Weather]

Less than 24 hours to onset and I have some models giving me borderline warning snow and some giving me under an inch. Lovely!

[CentralNebWeather]

10 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

Stayed very steady 

[hawkstwelve]

I haven't used the RAP model much so I don't know how accurate it can be or what tendencies it has but dang, it drops 10 inches here through just 9AM tomorrow. That's with only the initial WAA band, not including the second round with the main system. That just can't be right.

[jcwxguy]

Hrrr is overdone as usual but nails Nebraska. especially west of Omaha.