January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[MV_snow]

12 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

The temps starting out with this event versus December 2022. Is a big difference. Rain started at 24 degrees here. Would be closer to freezing at the start this time. 

That’s a good point. And Dec 2022 wasn’t even bad here. Just got a light glaze on everything. I think it was lack of precip that bailed us out there.

[TT-SEA]

Love the setting sun against the Cascades on winter evenings like this.   Also pics taken at 5:05 p.m. and it was pitch dark at that time a couple weeks ago.    The first signs of the warm season coming! 

 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, MV_snow said:

That’s a good point. And Dec 2022 wasn’t even bad here. Just got a light glaze on everything. I think it was lack of precip that bailed us out there.

And it will be in the low 40s Tuesday afternoon before the event.   Can't remember any freezing rain happening in that situation.   It's pretty rare.   It will happen but doubt it's really bad.

[Slushy Inch]

12 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Looks close to 12z. MY GOD THAT IS CLOSE

It’s a bit south 

[Winterdog]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I beat you again! I hit 28.6! 

That was Seattles temps!  My high temp was 28.4 so chew on that Mossy.

[the_convergence_zone]

4 minutes ago, MV_snow said:

That’s a good point. And Dec 2022 wasn’t even bad here. Just got a light glaze on everything. I think it was lack of precip that bailed us out there.

It was pretty severe in Seattle but nobody was out on the roads when it started. Parked cars were spontaneously sliding down hills and a few people wrecked. It was not bad enough to break tree limbs, however. If that thing would have hit in the middle of the day it would have been a different story. 
 

 

[RayRay]

26 degrees here in Redmond

[MossMan]

Just now, Winterdog said:

That was Seattles temps!  My high temp was 28.4 so chew on that Mossy.

Oh

[Slushy Inch]

Less chance of snow on 18z eps.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It would really be something if this think came in on a south track. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

25 already.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It would really be something if this think came in on a south track. 

Looks like 6 members on 18eps

[MV_snow]

3 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

It was pretty severe in Seattle but nobody was out on the roads when it started. Parked cars were spontaneously sliding down hills and a few people wrecked. It was not bad enough to break tree limbs, however. If that thing would have hit in the middle of the day it would have been a different story. 
 

 

Yeah I was thinking more from a power outage standpoint. Roads were definitely a $hitshow in Dec 2022. I was lucky and was able to stay home then. Plan to do so Weds as well.

[RayRay]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It would really be something if this think came in on a south track. 

If I could just get 12 inches here… only if…

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It would really be something if this think came in on a south track. 

What I was wondering though is it seems like the upper levels are warm and freezing rain is falling even in the north interior north of where the low tracks through?

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

Looks like 6 members on 18eps

Better than 0! 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

What I was wondering though is it seems like the upper levels are warm and freezing rain is falling even in the north interior north of where the low tracks through?

I was thinking the exact same thing.   Upper levels are really not favorable.

Here is 18Z EPS... a few south stragglers there which tells us the low might be really weak.   But not many showing significant snow in Seattle    

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

What I was wondering though is it seems like the upper levels are warm and freezing rain is falling even in the north interior north of where the low tracks through?

It will be snow north of this low. There's going to be new cold coming down in a trough meeting up with the low. 

 

[TacomaWx]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

I was thinking the exact same thing.   Upper levels are really not favorable.

Here is 18Z EPS... a few south stragglers there which tells the low might be really weak.   But not many showing significant snow in Seattle    

Yeah it seems like upper level temperatures are a bigger problem than the position of the low. Even if it comes in south of the area. 

[TT-SEA]

Control run...

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It will be snow north of this low. There's going to be new cold coming down in a trough meeting up with the low. 

 

Yeah so could a stronger low further south pull down cold air from an upper level perspective? Or could it not really change the upper levels and just pull offshore flow at the surface and keep it freezing rain longer?

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah it seems like upper level temperatures are a bigger problem than the position of the low. Even if it comes in south of the area. 

Its marginal for snow even up north.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah it seems like upper level temperatures are a bigger problem than the position of the low. Even if it comes in south of the area. 

If this low came in say long Beach and went east from there the Puget Sound would get dumped on. I'd betbmy corvette on it

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

If this low came in say long Beach and went east from there the Puget Sound would get dumped on. I'd betbmy corvette on it

Maybe not if the low so weak that it has also has a weak wind field.    The EPS has members showing the low south of Seattle but not any members showing a massive dump of snow in Seattle.

[MossMan]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Control run...

Good improvement, blue is much closer to me now. 

[TacomaWx]

5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

If this low came in say long Beach and went east from there the Puget Sound would get dumped on. I'd betbmy corvette on it

Normally that seems like it would be the case but even as of today the only cold is in the lower levels near the surface. Upper level cold is mostly gone now. Seems like we need cold air to be pulled in from the upper levels in BC to maintain snow through the whole column. 

[TT-SEA]

One more note on the ice storm... seems like it would be tough to fit in a really bad ice storm in here when the lowest temp in Seattle after midnight on Tuesday is 31.  

[MossMan]

Conflicting reports! 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MossMan said:

Conflicting reports! 

Very, complicated set up!   None of us really know anything.   Nature will make the call.  

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Very, complicated set up!   None of us really know anything.   Nature will make the call.  

One thing we know for sure…NBC is back on Directv!! 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MossMan said:

One thing we know for sure…NBC is back on Directv!! 

Yes!    

[TacomaWx]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Conflicting reports! 

It is a unique set up for sure. Like snowmizer said normally a low tracking in like that would mean snowfall on the north side of the low. Doesn’t look like that’s the case now with an inversion set up basically. 

[TT-SEA]

Interestingly the GEFS members are more sure the low will go north than the EPS members.

[TT-SEA]

All GEFS members for snow.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

All GEFS members for snow.

Some of those look quite good from Marysville north! 

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

It is a unique set up for sure. Like snowmizer said normally a low tracking in like that would mean snowfall on the north side of the low. Doesn’t look like that’s the case now with an inversion set up basically. 

But then why do several members of both the GFS and Euro have snow in my area if there is no cold air to draw from? 

Edited January 15 by MossMan

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

But then why do several members of both the GFS and Euro have snow in my area if there is no cold air to draw from? 

I believe upper level temperatures up north are just cold enough from an 850mb temp perspective to deliver snow. They appear to be above freezing down here hence the freezing rain. 

[Kayla]

Moderate snow and -12F here currently after a high of -8F. I don't think I've ever seen snowfall this heavy with temps below -10F.

Pretty amazing that the atmosphere can even hold any moisture at this point.

[MossMan]

20.8

[TT-SEA]

@SilverFallsAndrew as you like to say... How 'bout them Cowboys!!