January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, Sandy rocks said:

You have a big electric bill Andrew. Mine was $150 and I have a 3K sf house although I have equal pay, the increase will probably show up at the end of the utility cycle hopefully it won't be too much more.  I hate to see the snow pack melt, although it is cloud today so maybe it won't melt as much as when it is raining.

Do you have a well? 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

15 minutes ago, Sandy rocks said:

I would be ticked if I had to pay for a permit on a fallen tree. I love our trees and I hate to see them come down. The tree that took out my power was about 60-70 years old, really sad, but it was healthy, no rot. I guess it just fell because the wind hit it the wrong way. So many trees have been lost. Not as many here. Trees near the gorge are really resilient and rarely fall but areas away from the gorge that only get occasional wind such as Lake Oswego, SW Portland or Milwaukie have a lot more tree damage.

That just sounds stupid. The permit system exists to preserve trees. It should not get in the way of disposing those that have already been felled by natural causes.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Don't HATE these 12z runs. 

Some snow may grace the fir studded vales of Winter’s Hill before two long 

[Chewbacca Defense]

9 hours ago, Cold Snap said:

I’ll be going on an Alaskan Cruise at the end of June and will be going through Ketchikan and Juneau!

We did a Norwegian Cruise that went through those 2 cities, as well as Skagaway.  Definitely something I am glad I did once, but not sure I would ever do it again.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Some snow may grace the fir studded vales of Winter’s Hill before two long 

If Allah is willing. 

[T-Town]

Every once in awhile my Tempest weather station decides we are having a major windstorm. Maybe it’s bored. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

I can hardly believe we’re still sitting at just 47 here with all the upper 50s to near 60s popping up to the south, west and even north. Maybe the east wind will prove to be our localized god from the machine.

[Cascadia_Wx]

I wasn’t really too blown away by the 12z GEFS

[Cascadia_Wx]

It’s notable how much better last night’s 00z EPS looked. Let’s hope the GFS doesn’t lead the way again.

[Chewbacca Defense]

12 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

My electric bill was $369 last month. PGE JACKED rates 18% to start the new year. 

ouch....are you on electric heat?  I guess I should not complain about my electric bill.  my last bill was for Dec 10-Jan 10, and it's traditionally my worst bill of the year because of Christmas lights and...December.  Although now that I think about it, that's not true any more now that we have A/C.  We pay about $150-160 or so max in the summer, about $130 or so max in the winter.

My gas bill on the other hand is going to hurt.  That was $175 for 12/6 to 1/8.  With my wife both working from home, we don't get any relief from turning the temp down during the day while we are gone.  The furnace was running A LOT at the peak of the cold a couple of weeks ago.

[Chewbacca Defense]

1.66" so far out of this event, 5.78" for the month. 

My yard is completely destroyed going from all of that cold/snow switching to all of this rain.  Looks like I am going to be figuring out how to do a french drain with a sump/lift pump this spring/summer.  Tried to take my dog out there this morning, and she looked at all the standing water on the surface, then back at me like "do I have to go out there?"

[snow_wizard]

The key to this possible cold snap working out is the favorable evolution of that trough.  You can see the GFS is running bottom heavy with it, while the ECMWF is keeping it much more uniform from top to bottom.

[snow_wizard]

15 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

1.66" so far out of this event, 5.78" for the month. 

My yard is completely destroyed going from all of that cold/snow switching to all of this rain.  Looks like I am going to be figuring out how to do a french drain with a sump/lift pump this spring/summer.  Tried to take my dog out there this morning, and she looked at all the standing water on the surface, then back at me like "do I have to go out there?"

Kind of a terrible combination alright.

[snow_wizard]

21 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

ouch....are you on electric heat?  I guess I should not complain about my electric bill.  my last bill was for Dec 10-Jan 10, and it's traditionally my worst bill of the year because of Christmas lights and...December.  Although now that I think about it, that's not true any more now that we have A/C.  We pay about $150-160 or so max in the summer, about $130 or so max in the winter.

My gas bill on the other hand is going to hurt.  That was $175 for 12/6 to 1/8.  With my wife both working from home, we don't get any relief from turning the temp down during the day while we are gone.  The furnace was running A LOT at the peak of the cold a couple of weeks ago.

I was running our wood stove for about 8 hours during the day during the extreme cold to give our 50+ year old furnace a break.  It's the only time I actually had to have both going at one point.  The wind was just THAT cold.

[snow_wizard]

27 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

It’s notable how much better last night’s 00z EPS looked. Let’s hope the GFS doesn’t lead the way again.

As you'll recall the GFS kind of dropped the ball on the last cold wave.  About 5 or 6 days out it was showing no cold at all at one point.  Kind of a bust don't ya think?

[snow_wizard]

Huge differences between the GFS and ECMWF at day 4 or so.  The Euro is squeezing the cold down the BC Coast.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Skagit Weather said:

20 hours later and it's 41F and raining up there.

When Sherman Pass loses the cold you know it's a torch.

[snow_wizard]

I should have said about day 5 on the ECMWF and GFS having big differences.  I have no idea why the GFS always loses the scent on cold when it's about 5 days out.  Happens almost every time.

[snow_wizard]

The gross warm air is here now.  The humidity is so high it's making me sweat at normal room temperature.

[MossMan]

55/53 so far on the day. 
.23” so far on the day. 
Currently cloudy and 54. 

[Phishy Wx]

check out this gorgeous run of 50 burgers.

 

 

[Phishy Wx]

record high for tomorrow is 53 in 2018.  may challenge it or break it.

 

LFG!

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I can hardly believe we’re still sitting at just 47 here with all the upper 50s to near 60s popping up to the south, west and even north. Maybe the east wind will prove to be our localized god from the machine.

Lucky for you 

[Anti Marine Layer]

30 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The gross warm air is here now.  The humidity is so high it's making me sweat at normal room temperature.

What is the dewpoint?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2 hours ago, LowerGarfield said:

Overcast morning here. Taking a quiet day today after yesterday's Cougar basketball game vs Colorado. With my son being sick the only plan is to catch the football games today.

College basketball is so wonderful. I have 279 jerseys from different teams all over the country in support of people struggling with epilepsy. I try to wear them as much as I can.

[DeepFriedEgg]

Pretty good shot at 70 burgers where there are a lot of sunbreaks.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Up to 64F here. Might get a 70F burger.

Will we have a double Juneuary? Another warmer than normal month.

Depressing.

[Sandy rocks]

No I don't have a well. I am on city water which is also expensive since Sandy has been redoing all its infrastructure.In September they had a $50 rate increase.  A well must be very expensive to operate then. You can't win that's for sure. Maybe with solar but I am not sure about that in Oregon. I haven't seen a sunny day for a long, long time.

[snow_wizard]

One little bone the ECMWF throws us in the short term is some places might drop to around 40 Tuesday morning.  That wasn't shown on earlier runs.  I sure wish we could have avoided this torch though.  I knew it was a distinct possibility after such a huge cold wave during a Nino.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Up to 64F here. Might get a 70F burger.

Will we have a double Juneuary? Another warmer than normal month.

Depressing.

The arctic blast is just a memory now, like it never happened. This warmth has completely ruined it. This is an absolute nightmare. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Sandy rocks said:

No I don't have a well. I am on city water which is also expensive since Sandy has been redoing all its infrastructure.In September they had a $50 rate increase.  A well must be very expensive to operate then. You can't win that's for sure. Maybe with solar but I am not sure about that in Oregon. I haven't seen a sunny day for a long, long time.

I've found it takes a lot of power to run a well pump. 

[snow_wizard]

16 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

record high for tomorrow is 53 in 2018.  may challenge it or break it.

 

LFG!

2018 had a significant cold wave later on.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

2018 had a significant cold wave later on.

Was a Nina though. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The arctic blast is just a memory now, like it never happened. This warmth has completely ruined it. This is an absolute nightmare. 

Just some truly vomit worthy numbers popping up south of Portland as of 11am. 64 at Aurora. What an abomination.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The arctic blast is just a memory now, like it never happened. This warmth has completely ruined it. This is an absolute nightmare. 

It did happen though and it was noteworthy.

Very Jan 1935 vibe to this month, other than the lack of snow in Seattle.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Just some truly vomit worthy numbers popping up south of Portland as of 11am. 64 at Aurora. What an abomination.

Almost a miracle that PDX is still holding onto something at least.  My area managed to hold out until today.   56 now.

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I've found it takes a lot of power to run a well pump. 

I’m going to escape into the refrigerated Gorge today to check out the storm damage/try to forget this ugly torch is even happening.

[Sandy rocks]

Maybe I will get some benefit from having the power off for 2.5 days.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Almost a miracle that PDX is still holding onto something at least.  My area managed to hold out until today.   56 now.

I feel their luck won’t hold on forever. Good chance these sunbreaks finally help to mix the lowest layer of cold along the Columbia River out. Then we’re screwed.

[snow_wizard]

Wow.  The east wind layer at the western end of the Gorge is paper thin now.  Three Corner Rock is now SW.