February 2024 Weather in the PNW

[Meatyorologist]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Ah. I mean for all that is practical, yes, the Saharan boundary layer is “well mixed”. But because moisture is so limited, it still isn’t deep enough for cloud formation. Technically.

So I still consider it capped, in that sense. But it depends on the semantics applied w/rt the definition of a “cap”. Many would disagree with me on this.

Gotta love a 25000ft LCL

[Phil]

42 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

La ninas following strong el ninos are usually the best winters for us, right? Although there's probably only a small sample size for that 

They can be, though QBO/solar flux modulation of the stratosphere and IO SSTs also play a role.

70/71, 73/74, 83/84, 88/89, 98/99 10/11. Some epic ones in there, but also some “meh” years.

But we might not have any La Niña at all next winter. Plenty of potential failure modes for establishing one. Climate models are notoriously bad at predicting ENSO at this range.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

They can be, though QBO/solar flux modulation of the stratosphere and IO SSTs also play a role.

70/71, 73/74, 83/84, 88/89, 98/99 10/11. Some epic ones in there, but also some “meh” years.

But we might not have any La Niña at all next winter. Plenty of potential failure modes for establishing one. Climate models are notoriously bad at predicting ENSO at this range.

All of those had at least one event at least. 1970/71 had 70"+ in the West Hills of Portland and was very snowy in places, January 1974 had a decent blast, and 1989/1998 had top tier blasts. November 2010 and Feb 2011 were also great.

[Doinko]

19 minutes ago, Doinko said:

All of those had at least one event at least. 1970/71 had 70"+ in the West Hills of Portland and was very snowy in places, January 1974 had a decent blast, and 1989/1998 had top tier blasts. November 2010 and Feb 2011 were also great.

1970-1971 at Portland-Elk Point (1000' in Sylvan):

November 1970: 3.1" of snow (and a 28/22 day with an ice storm)

December 1970: 11.6" of snow (mostly marginal it seems)

January 1971: 27.9" of snow (Depth peaking at 18" on the night of the 13th)

February 1971: 26.8" of snow (Depth peaking at 13" on the 27th)

March 1971: 3.1" of snow

72.5" of snow total.

[snow_wizard]

20 minutes ago, Doinko said:

All of those had at least one event at least. 1970/71 had 70"+ in the West Hills of Portland and was very snowy in places, January 1974 had a decent blast, and 1989/1998 had top tier blasts. November 2010 and Feb 2011 were also great.

1970-71 was huge in Whatcom County as well.  OK in the Settle area.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

1970-1971 at Portland-Elk Point (1000' in Sylvan):

November 1970: 3.1" of snow (and a 28/22) day with an ice storm

December 1970: 11.6" of snow (mostly marginal it seems)

January 1971: 27.9" of snow (Depth peaking at 18" on the night of the 13th)

February 1971: 26.8" of snow (Depth peaking at 13" on the 27th)

March 1971: 3.1" of snow

72.5" of snow total.

There was a very notable cold snap in late Feb / early March in that season as well.

[snow_wizard]

26 minutes ago, Phil said:

They can be, though QBO/solar flux modulation of the stratosphere and IO SSTs also play a role.

70/71, 73/74, 83/84, 88/89, 98/99 10/11. Some epic ones in there, but also some “meh” years.

But we might not have any La Niña at all next winter. Plenty of potential failure modes for establishing one. Climate models are notoriously bad at predicting ENSO at this range.

QBO should be on our side if a Nina happens.  I think the chances are decent at this point.

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

1970-71 was huge in Whatcom County as well.  OK in the Settle area.

Eugene did well too it looks like. 19" of snow in 4 days in January. Salem had 11" and PDX had 7". And 9" at Hillsboro so probably a similar amount here.

Bellingham's numbers look amazing, over 25" of snow there. I think it was the snowiest month at Vancouver BC as well?

[Slushy Inch]

4 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Mildly interesting, but at the end of the day as we head into mid-February. It takes a lot

to get snow down to the lowest elevations. Sometimes we don’t realize how hard it is just because of the past 10-15 years. 

True

[T-Town]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Phil says our time to shine will be late March when we will get some 35 degree mixed showers at times but will pop back into the 50’s with sun breaks! Can’t wait! 

I actually think those kinds of days are pretty fun. One of the things I like about spring.  

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, T-Town said:

I actually think those kinds of days are pretty fun. One of the things I like about spring.  

I don’t mind it either…After a winter that featured 30+” of snowfall. My current 3” for the season is simply unacceptable. 

[TT-SEA]

God is shining down on east side of Lake Union.

[MossMan]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

God is shining down on east side of Lake Union.

Andrew must be visiting there. 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

QBO should be on our side if a Nina happens.  I think the chances are decent at this point.

We’re talking almost a full year out, though. A lot can happen in that amount of time.

An anomalous +IOD such as 1999/00 could easily disrupt the QBO/NPAC high relationship, assuming we even get a niña in the first place. Heavy geomagnetic activity during the preceding summer/autumn could also compromise the BDC and cause a super PV/+AO. Too early to be confident in anything, IMO.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

I don’t mind it either…After a winter that featured 30+” of snowfall. My current 3” for the season is simply unacceptable. 

With that mindset, mother nature will just tell you to get f**ked.

Making demands is a nonstarter. Trust me on this.  

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Doinko said:

Eugene did well too it looks like. 19" of snow in 4 days in January. Salem had 11" and PDX had 7". And 9" at Hillsboro so probably a similar amount here.

Bellingham's numbers look amazing, over 25" of snow there. I think it was the snowiest month at Vancouver BC as well?

Indeed.  I think December was the big month up there.  A lot of borderline cold down here, but up there it was really impressive.

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

With that mindset, mother nature will just tell you to get f**ked.

Making demands is a nonstarter. Trust me on this.  

Has worked for me for the last 6+ years straight however! 

[Timmy Supercell]

If we don't start eating bug burgers and worm spaghetti the weather will get worse. 

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, Timmy Supercell said:

If we don't start eating bug burgers and worm spaghetti the weather will get worse. 

You mean veggie burgers? What is worm spaghetti?

[Timmy Supercell]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

You mean veggie burgers? What is worm spaghetti?

Just a jab towards the idea certain rich people have on using alternative proteins.

[Anti Marine Layer]

10 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

If we don't start eating bug burgers and worm spaghetti the weather will get worse. 

Locusts and honey. 

[Phishy Wx]

you dudes are wiggin out

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

19 hours ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Had a 30/43 day, midnight low temp. Got above freezing a bit before sunrise so couldn't enjoy the snow much today. 34 now, a little less than an inch remains.

 

Was looking at webcams in California, quite a lot of them are down. Looks pretty snowy at Big Bear Lake, 7100 ft elevation in so cal. There's a bald eagle with a few eggs buried under that snow, and it's got another foot on the way!

This is what it looks like there now. A lot more snow! There isn't much scale on how much snow that is, but if I were to guess, atleast 10 extra inches has fallen, probably a lot more.

Unfortunately the webcams at the ski resorts in that area are all still down, but I'm sure they got a TON of snow. 

Edit: even more snow now, updated the pic

[Phil]

45 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Has worked for me for the last 6+ years straight however! 

Reeling you in to put a dagger in your heart.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Trying out the camera on my new phone. Some snow returned to the Olympics. 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

10 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Trying out the camera on my new phone. Some snow returned to the Olympics. 

Wow, that is just spectacular! The Olympic range really is amazing, especially with snow!

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

18z GFS ensembles were pretty decent, this is valid for portland. A good handful of cold members, and a couple of really cold ones. We must keep hope for this month!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

70-71 was incredible up here. Salem also hit 12 in March 1971 which is their all time low for the month. 

[snow_wizard]

Well...sure as sheit the clouds are back after clearing out for an hour.  I haven't had a frosty night from radiational cooling here since December.  Clouds or wind have ruined every chance that comes up.  The ECMWF keeps showing we will get frost and then keeps taking it away in the home stretch.  Just a pet peeve of mine.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Timmy Supercell said:

If we don't start eating bug burgers and worm spaghetti the weather will get worse. 

If the elites get their way that's what we will have.

[snow_wizard]

18 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

70-71 was incredible up here. Salem also hit 12 in March 1971 which is their all time low for the month. 

The late Feb / early Match stuff was pretty impressive in this specific area, but the Dec and Jan stuff was pretty disappointing compared to a lot of places.  1971-72 on the other hand was fabulous here.

[snow_wizard]

45 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Wow, that is just spectacular! The Olympic range really is amazing, especially with snow!

Mount Olympus is just flat out crazy.  A heavily glaciated peak and it's only 8000 feet.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Mount Olympus is just flat out crazy.  A heavily glaciated peak and it's only 8000 feet.

My wife climbed it in 2022

[iFred]

34 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

If the elites get their way that's what we will have.

As an elite, yes you will eat the bug, sleep in the pod, and submit to community polyamory. Also keep it to the political subforum or I'll report you to the Bilderberg Group's INTERPOL office in Seattle.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Seasonable evening out there. I'll try and take a pic from the weather deck tomorrow, since I am back working along the mighty Willamette. 

Edited February 7 by SilverFallsAndrew

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

We’re talking almost a full year out, though. A lot can happen in that amount of time.

An anomalous +IOD such as 1999/00 could easily disrupt the QBO/NPAC high relationship, assuming we even get a niña in the first place. Heavy geomagnetic activity during the preceding summer/autumn could also compromise the BDC and cause a super PV/+AO. Too early to be confident in anything, IMO.

Mentioning 1999-2000 is not allowed!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Mentioning 1999-2000 is not allowed!

That winter was actually fairly decent up  here. It's hard for a Nina to completely fail here, though 2020-21 did. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Silver Falls had a +1.1 departure for January. Coldest day there was 26/15. Looks like they had a disgusting 57/51 on the 28th. 

[SnowWillarrive]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Mount Olympus is just flat out crazy.  A heavily glaciated peak and it's only 8000 feet.

Beautiful yet a source of so much frustration for us. I guess I wouldn’t change them.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I need to get back to the Olympics. My wife and I went up there just after we got married in 2018. We'd never been there and it was a very poorly executed "honeymoon," but that area just blew us away.