February 2024 Weather in the PNW

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

 

Saw these guys with Alice In Chains a couple years ago. Got their t-shirt for Walter the dog.

My wife sat next to Layne Staley on a ferry ride to K2 ski on vashon island back in 1994 or so. They had a conversasion for about 10 minutes and she said he was really cool. At the time she had no idea who he was lol. 

Edited February 16 by MR.SNOWMIZER

[snow_wizard]

As for Wednesday night the GFS far outperformed the ECMWF.  The ECMWF was way too wet / snowy for the area east of Puget Sound and the GFS did a far better job at picking up on the lower 850s, which the ECMWF did not see at all.  In general the ECMWF was terrible with the event, as it had those earlier runs that showed the entire storm dropping way south of WA.

I was expecting to get the shaft so it was no shock.

On a really interesting note...it only dropped to 37 this morning due to wind, and yet some puddles by the road in front of our house were frozen.  The freezing power of the east wind is nuts.

[T-Town]

9 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

 

Saw these guys with Alice In Chains a couple years ago. Got their t-shirt for Walter the dog.

When you get the opportunity to buy Thunderpussy swag, you take it. 

[Front Ranger]

17 minutes ago, Phil said:

I love El Niño.  

I mean, I dislike the periodic blowtorching that comes with most niños, but my primary interest is snowfall. And 80% of that comes down to storm track in these parts.

La Niña is fun if you like wild temp extremes and high winds. But personally I could care less about cold extremes.

For my area, this winter has played out pretty close to what I expected so far...dominated by blowtorching, with a few decent storms but nothing to write home about. The biggest surprise was, of course, the top tier cold wave in January - which is the only thing that has kept this winter from being a massive torch overall.

If the mega Nino script continues, I should get 1-2 big snowstorms by mid April. Which may make the overall snowfall stats look good, but not as enjoyable as more snowfall during peak winter (late Nov - mid Feb).

[Front Ranger]

33 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You have to like the 12z ECMWF.  Really impressive to see such a big flip to -PNA in the late winter with a major Nino.  The ECMWF looks poised for a major cold shot.

Not sure about that, but definitely cold Andrew flow.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

For my area, this winter has played out pretty close to what I expected so far...dominated by blowtorching, with a few decent storms but nothing to write home about. The biggest surprise was, of course, the top tier cold wave in January - which is the only thing that has kept this winter from being a massive torch overall.

If the mega Nino script continues, I should get 1-2 big snowstorms by mid April. Which may make the overall snowfall stats look good, but not as enjoyable as more snowfall during peak winter (late Nov - mid Feb).

The biggest shock to me has been the insane torching east of the Rockies.  The Plains and Midwest have been epic.  In fact I heard they are calling it the lost winter there.

I agree about January.  That is tied for the most severe cold wind event I've ever seen here.  The other was Feb 1989.  The only times I've seen it windy with temps below 15 here.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Not sure about that, but definitely cold Andrew flow.

Yeah....the end needs a few tweaks, but the cold is in play.

[bainbridgekid]

There was really thick frost, frozen solid puddles, and it took 15 minutes to defrost my car this morning. First time in like a month that's happened.

[snow_wizard]

16 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Of course, the PNW is similar. Moving from the Rockies, I found it amusing how people made such a big deal about a few inches of snow or temperatures in the 20’s.

At least those conditions can cause legitimately dangerous driving conditions.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

There was really thick frost, frozen solid puddles, and it took 15 minutes to defrost my car this morning. First time in like a month that's happened.

I figured some places would get down there.  IMBY it has been insanely difficult to come up with a freeze for weeks now.  Always either wind or clouds.  The first half of the season we did fine here, but since then the only freezes have come from the January freeze, and one night this month.  Pretty frustrating overall.

[Front Ranger]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The biggest shock to me has been the insane torching east of the Rockies.  The Plains and Midwest have been epic.  In fact I heard they are calling it the lost winter there.

I agree about January.  That is tied for the most severe cold wind event I've ever seen here.  The other was Feb 1989.  The only times I've seen it windy with temps below 15 here.

Seems pretty inline with other mega Ninos.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Seems pretty inline with other mega Ninos.

This has been more impressive.

[Front Ranger]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This has been more impressive.

I'm guessing the Dec-Feb anomaly map for this winter will end up looking pretty similar to those other ones. The second half of February looks to end up notably cooler than the first for the eastern half of the nation.

[Chewbacca Defense]

27 minutes ago, Phil said:

Didn’t you spend time in SE GA? I think you’ve de-acclimated.

Yes I did, yes I have, and it's part of the reason I moved out here. The conversation that started my relocation pretty much went like this....I was hanging out at one of my best friend's apartment up in Athens in the middle of summer, we were just sitting there sweating doing nothing more than sitting on the couch passing a bong around....

 

My friend:  "Want to move to Oregon?"

"What's in Oregon?"

"Trees....and its not hot, its not humid, and no gnats!"

"When we going?"

We packed up our respective apartments after Christmas and started driving January 1st, 1994, there were 4 of us in total.  Me and my girlfriend at the time, and my friend and her boyfriend at the time.

I never really "acclimated" to the heat in Georgia, I just tolerated it.  I spent a lot of time in local pools, rivers, and lakes.  If none of those were available, I was running through or riding my bike through the sprinkler.  When I worked in the summers in South Georgia, I was lucky that the house I lived at had a pool.  I was in that sucker every day.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

At least those conditions can cause legitimately dangerous driving conditions.

So can rain.

[Front Ranger]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

So can rain.

I would not have guessed this.

According to autoinsuranceez.com, West Virginia has the highest number of weather-related fatal crashes per million drivers in the US. The majority of fatal crashes are caused by rainfall, which makes West Virginia's roads dangerously slick and visibility poor.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Yes I did, yes I have, and it's part of the reason I moved out here. The conversation that started my relocation pretty much went like this....I was hanging out at one of my best friend's apartment up in Athens in the middle of summer, we were just sitting there sweating doing nothing more than sitting on the couch passing a bong around....

My friend:  "Want to move to Oregon?"

"What's in Oregon?"

"Trees....and its not hot, its not humid, and no gnats!"

"When we going?"

We packed up our respective apartments after Christmas and started driving January 1st, 1994, there were 4 of us in total.  Me and my girlfriend at the time, and my friend and her boyfriend at the time.

I never really "acclimated" to the heat in Georgia, I just tolerated it.  I spent a lot of time in local pools, rivers, and lakes.  If none of those were available, I was running through or riding my bike through the sprinkler.  When I worked in the summers in South Georgia, I was lucky that the house I lived at had a pool.  I was in that sucker every day.

It was in college that the idea of moving the the Pacific Northwest occurred to me, too. I was expressing envy to an exchange student from Europe about the Western European climate, and how it offered a change of seasons without ridiculous temperature extremes, and how “there is nowhere in the USA like that.”

His response pointed out I had overlooked a region: “the Pacific Northwest.”

[Cascadia_Wx]

11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This has been more impressive.

Don’t see how on earth you could view the impressive warmth out there as a good sign of anything.

Just means the planet is warming. We all live here.

Edited February 16 by Cascadia_Wx

[Chewbacca Defense]

27 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Of course, the PNW is similar. Moving from the Rockies, I found it amusing how people made such a big deal about a few inches of snow or temperatures in the 20’s.

Yes and no.  I was sharing this with my sales guy who lives in Minnesota (he reports to a different division and did not get the bulletin), and we made the comparison of me getting this would be like him getting a safety bulletin on snow.

I found that when we had the facility here, they never put out safety bulletins like this.  The most they did was a simple e-mail from facilities saying that they would not have the parking lot plowed unless a certain amount of snow fell, and to be careful of ice in the parking lot.  Also, they did allow for latitude in the working hours for folks, especially for folks who lived way out in the county who wanted to get home before dark, or delayed coming in to allow the county to clear the main arterials (some folks started work at 4-5am)

[BLI snowman]

10 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Seems pretty inline with other mega Ninos.

Minneapolis is running about 3 degrees above their warmest winter on record up through this point (2001-02).

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Minneapolis is running about 3 degrees above their warmest winter on record up through this point (2001-02).

Yeah, I mean it might end up more extreme for some locations, but overall the anomaly centers are similar to previous mega Ninos. Warm for most the nation, but extremely warm for the plains/Upper Midwest.

[Chewbacca Defense]

6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I would not have guessed this.

According to autoinsuranceez.com, West Virginia has the highest number of weather-related fatal crashes per million drivers in the US. The majority of fatal crashes are caused by rainfall, which makes West Virginia's roads dangerously slick and visibility poor.

Yeah, I remember hearing about lots of accidents as a kid in Georgia due to hydroplaning.  I had a '77 Datsun 280Z in college, and I was driving on a freeway just south of Atlanta when an absolute frog choker rolled through.  My windshield wipers got completely overwhelmed by the spray/"rooster tails" shooting out from the side of the tires of the cars on either side of me (there was a ton of standing water on the road).  I had so much water splashing around, it got up onto my exhaust manifold and popped a stud bolt, creating an exhaust leak at the head.  It was an inline 6 motor with a single piece exhaust manifold.  I ended up pulling off the road, which probably wasn't too safe either, but I very literally could not see the car in front of me.  I was gauging my speed by the cars beside me and hoping my lane did not stop short.   Most scared I have ever been while driving.

[Front Ranger]

12 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Minneapolis is running about 3 degrees above their warmest winter on record up through this point (2001-02).

Also, you picked the city in the heart of the warmth this winter. Places like MT, SD, and NE are not going to end up as warm as some previous major Ninos, and most Midwest cities are not seeing their warmest winter on record.

[Deweydog]

Brrrrrreezy!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

So the DNR called me asking permission to drive though my property to access an area they want to log next to my 120 acre spot. I'm not to excited but our property is the only access to this area and they are not allowed to punch a new road. If i allow we are going to demand the 1 mile road through our land to be upgraded including gravel, better ditches and dust control in summer. Also the lower gate is not that great and it must be locked at night so i will ask for a new gate. Also might demand a wildlife study to see how it might damage the wildlife on my property. If anyone has ideas please share. The area they want to log is a fire hazard and is very thick so thats good i guess. It is a large area so they want in there bad. I wont be able to see the logged part from where my house wil be. 

[Front Ranger]

Had 1/4" of snow fall last night. By 1 pm today, it was completely gone, despite overcast skies and temps just above freezing.

This is why higher sun angles are inherently evil.

[BLI snowman]

29 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Also, you picked the city in the heart of the warmth this winter. Places like MT, SD, and NE are not going to end up as warm as some previous major Ninos, and most Midwest cities are not seeing their warmest winter on record.

Yeah, Jim's point was that there has been some unprecedented warmth in places up there. It's not about everyone seeing all-time record warmth. Milwaukee is also on track for a record warm DJF. Two of the biggest cities in the region.

It's a rather unnecessary Jaredism qualifier to say "but what about those places that haven't been quite as warm?"

Edited February 16 by BLI snowman

[Front Ranger]

5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, Jim's point was that there has been some unprecedented warmth in places up there. It's not about everyone seeing all-time record warmth. Milwaukee is also on track for a record warm DJF. Two of the biggest cities in the region.

It's a rather unnecessary Jaredism qualifier to say "but what about those places that haven't been as warm?"

This is what Jim said: "The biggest shock to me has been the insane torching east of the Rockies.  The Plains and Midwest have been epic.  In fact I heard they are calling it the lost winter there."

My response was pointing out that extreme torching in the plains/upper Midwest is typical of mega Ninos.

It was a rather unnecessary Justinism to counter this with "but Minneapolis is RECORD warm".

 

[Chewbacca Defense]

19 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

So the DNR called me asking permission to drive though my property to access an area they want to log next to my 120 acre spot. I'm not to excited but our property is the only access to this area and they are not allowed to punch a new road. If i allow we are going to demand the 1 mile road through our land to be upgraded including gravel, better ditches and dust control in summer. Also the lower gate is not that great and it must be locked at night so i will ask for a new gate. Also might demand a wildlife study to see how it might damage the wildlife on my property. If anyone has ideas please share. The area they want to log is a fire hazard and is very thick so thats good i guess. It is a large area so they want in there bad. I wont be able to see the logged part from where my house wil be. 

I assume they would replant after they logged?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

I assume they would replant after they logged?

Yes, i have a bunch more questions. We have them by the balls, if i say no they can NOT log this area at all. Sounds like they are going to thin it and not rape it.

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

This is what Jim said: "The biggest shock to me has been the insane torching east of the Rockies.  The Plains and Midwest have been epic.  In fact I heard they are calling it the lost winter there."

My response was pointing out that extreme torching in the plains/upper Midwest is typical of mega Ninos.

It was a rather unnecessary Justinism to counter this with "but Minneapolis is RECORD warm".

 

When you have a sizable area that is running several degrees warmer than those Nino years or any other years for that matter, I would offer that it isn't "typical".  

We know you'd be pointing that out at Usain Bolt speeds if the tables were flipped and MSP or MKE or ORD were pacing for their coldest DJF on record. Let alone by several degrees!! 

[the_convergence_zone]

The spatial consistency with past strong Niño is remarkable. And of course this is the warmest one because the planet has warmed since the other strong Niños. 

I wonder how it looks with Canada included...

[Front Ranger]

6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

When you have a sizable area that is running several degrees warmer than those Nino years or any other years for that matter, I would offer that it isn't "typical".  

We know you'd be pointing that out at Usain Bolt speeds if the tables were flipped and MSP or MKE or ORD were pacing for their coldest DJF on record. Let alone by several degrees!! 

Wasn't my point. My point was simply that the anomaly patterns we've seen with this mega Nino are fairly typical.

Record warmth in some places doesn't change that.

[Chewbacca Defense]

11 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Yes, i have a bunch more questions. We have them by the balls, if i say no they can NOT log this area at all. Sounds like they are going to thin it and not rape it.

When you say you have them by the balls, is there any sort of imminent domain claim there?  It doesn't sound like it, but worth throwing it out there....

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Wasn't my point. My point was simply that the anomaly patterns we've seen with this mega Nino are fairly typical.

Record warmth in some places doesn't change that.

Yeah... I think it's pretty evident that Jim was also referring to the magnitude of the warmth rather than just the anomaly centers.

[Cold Snap]

Low of 26 here this morning. Nice that I was able to get a good freeze in.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

15 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

When you say you have them by the balls, is there any sort of imminent domain claim there?  It doesn't sound like it, but worth throwing it out there....

Definitely need to ask more questions. They were very clear that if we tell them no they have no other options, we already knew that because the land has no other access. Even if we got the 1 mile of road improved and graveled that is not cheap to do. A part of me wants to say, how much do we get?

[Cascadia_Wx]

20 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah... I think it's pretty evident that Jim was also referring to the magnitude of the warmth rather than just the anomaly centers.

Plus any torching east of the Rockies is always an utterly flantabulously good sign for us.

[Deweydog]

1 hour ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

So the DNR called me asking permission to drive though my property to access an area they want to log next to my 120 acre spot. I'm not to excited but our property is the only access to this area and they are not allowed to punch a new road. If i allow we are going to demand the 1 mile road through our land to be upgraded including gravel, better ditches and dust control in summer. Also the lower gate is not that great and it must be locked at night so i will ask for a new gate. Also might demand a wildlife study to see how it might damage the wildlife on my property. If anyone has ideas please share. The area they want to log is a fire hazard and is very thick so thats good i guess. It is a large area so they want in there bad. I wont be able to see the logged part from where my house wil be. 

Get an attorney.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, Deweydog said:

Get an attorney.

Are you serious?