February 2024 Weather in the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This has major anafront potential.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS is just kind of annoying. CMC looks solid. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GEM is just solid as nails. 

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GEM is just solid as nails. 

Huge fan of the GEM... brings the entire trough inland and avoids days on end of heavy rain.    Shifts action to CA as well.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

00z runs not great so far. Hoping for the GEFS and ECMWF to be good.

 

[Phil]

Must’ve been one hell of a lightning strike. “Structural damage to foundation wall” due to concussive effects..oof.

 

[bainbridgekid]

23 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

One of big stories next week might end up being heavy rain.  

Epic rain shadow for Everett.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

8 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Epic rain shadow for Everett.

That is a ton of moisture, can't remember last time we saw that much precip with low snow levels. I have see heavy rain drive snow levels down to sea level on days that the actual snow level was 1500ft. I think we are going to see a bunch of that type of action next week.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

That is a ton of moisture, can't remember last time we saw that much precip with low snow levels. I have see heavy rain drive snow levels down to sea level on days that the actual snow level was 1500ft. I think we are going to see a bunch of that type of action next week.

GFS shows an AR type event from Tuesday through Thursday.    Too warm it the upper levels for precip rate to matter much.   

[Meatyorologist]

33 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You're seriously wrong about one thing here.  The GFS and ECMWF had consistently shown a very good snow chance here Monday night and that is now gone.  For some people the changes are no big deal.  For here it's a really big deal.  Please remember I watch this stuff like a hawk.  That is particularly true for my general area.

That's classic QPF waffling though. What you were looking at was a weak low/shortwave embedded in a much larger trough, over 100 hours out. That was never more than a transient feature up for scrutiny.

It could still realistically come back, too. Or more likely, models will pick up on a new different feature for snowfall. The flipside of the whole deal.

Also the GFS still shows spotty light snow Monday night.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS still struggling. Like the Israelites wandering in the wilderness. 

Edited February 23 by SilverFallsAndrew

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

GFS shows an AR type event from Tuesday through Thursday.    Too warm it the upper levels for precip rate to matter much.   

One period you picked don't represent the entire time we have heavy precip.  

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

One period you picked don't represent the entire time we have heavy precip.  

It covers the period for the 48-hour map I posted with the heavy rain.

[Phishy Wx]

you dudes should just go ahead and divest from this winter and look forward to november.  put it behind you. it's healthier.  I'm pretty much over it

[Weiner Warrior]

This is the pullback.. tomorrow it will show everyone with 6in+

[MossMan]

Sound up. The frogs know it’s coming. 

[TT-SEA]

40 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Epic rain shadow for Everett.

Classic SW flow event.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Well that's only like 5 more inches than what I average, so i would say it is fair to compare.

I think he was referring to comparing it to west of the Cascades.  BTW...I'm pretty skeptical you are that close to Leavenworth for average.  I could be wrong though.

[snow_wizard]

16 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

you dudes should just go ahead and divest from this winter and look forward to november.  put it behind you. it's healthier.  I'm pretty much over it

I'm thinking about it.  A lot going for next winter to be good, and Seattle is the place that's due now.

[snow_wizard]

35 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

That's classic QPF waffling though. What you were looking at was a weak low/shortwave embedded in a much larger trough, over 100 hours out. That was never more than a transient feature up for scrutiny.

It could still realistically come back, too. Or more likely, models will pick up on a new different feature for snowfall. The flipside of the whole deal.

Also the GFS still shows spotty light snow Monday night.

There were reasons the earlier runs were consistently showing snow here and that ship has sailed now.  You greatly underestimate how finely I know EXACTLY what it takes to get snow at my location.

[SnowWillarrive]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm thinking about it.  A lot going for next winter to be good, and Seattle is the place that's due now.

I’ll be shocked if anyone outside Mossville sees much significant snow. 

[Cold Snap]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm thinking about it.  A lot going for next winter to be good, and Seattle is the place that's due now.

Even Seattle Weather Blog brought up on Twitter that Seattle is more due for a snow event than anywhere in the PNW.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

I’ll be shocked if anyone outside Mossville or Vancouver sees much significant snow. 

FTFY.

[Snowlova]

2 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Even Seattle Weather Blog brought up on Twitter that Seattle is more due for a snow event than anywhere in the PNW.

Haven’t been able to even make a snowman since Dec 2021. Max depth of 0.9 inches since. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Snowlova said:

Haven’t been able to even make a snowman since Dec 2021. Max depth of 0.9 inches since. 

Wow. I’m so sorry.

[Blizzard777]

3 hours ago, T-Town said:

Beautiful evening. 

I definitely enjoyed this day ! 
Beautiful pics 

[Cold Snap]

2 minutes ago, Snowlova said:

Haven’t been able to even make a snowman since Dec 2021. Max depth of 0.9 inches since. 

I did pretty decent last winter. I had a 7 inch snow event from the November snowstorm that really only dumped on the snoqualmie valley and Randy’s place. Also had a lot of minor snow events in the Feb-Early April period mainly from convergence zones.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

16 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

I’ll be shocked if anyone outside Mossville sees much significant snow. 

It will snow here. 100% it will

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Huge fan of the GEM... brings the entire trough inland and avoids days on end of heavy rain.    Shifts action to CA as well.

The GFS is an outlier keeping the trough so far offshore.  You're right that a trough that far out would be ugly.  The closer to us the better.

[SnowWillarrive]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It will snow here. 100% it will

I forgot Hood Canal. Not Vancouver BC though

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

17 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

I’ll be shocked if anyone outside Mossville sees much significant snow. 

The area I live averages more per winter than MossMan area.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[snow_wizard]

17 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

I’ll be shocked if anyone outside Mossville sees much significant snow. 

This winter....very possibly.  I was talking about next winter having good chances for the Seattle area given the background state we will have.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The area I live averages more per winter than MossMan area.

 

 

 

 

 

 

He may get more snow in the better situations though.  Not sure on that one.

No matter what this side of the mountains is out for places I want to move.  Even the best spots can have very disappointing winters.  I'm sick of being disappointed.

[bainbridgekid]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

He may get more snow in the better situations though.  Not sure on that one.

No matter what this side of the mountains is out for places I want to move.  Even the best spots can have very disappointing winters.  I'm sick of being disappointed.

Living somewhere that does well going into cold snaps is definitely worth a lot, even if your annual average might be a little less than somewhere that maximizes overrunning events. I like my area of South Everett a lot for that. We don't do particularly great with overrunning because of shadowing but tend to do really well as the cold moves in with CZ's and Arctic Fronts. Bainbridge was the opposite.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

He may get more snow in the better situations though.  Not sure on that one.

No matter what this side of the mountains is out for places I want to move.  Even the best spots can have very disappointing winters.  I'm sick of being disappointed.

Since 2017 my average is right around 30 per year

 

 

[snow_wizard]

9 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Since 2017 my average is right around 30 per year

 

 

I was talking about him maybe getting more going into Arctic air, and situations where the snow may be more likely to last.

As for me.  I just want a better climate.  It just sucks here.  There is way more to it than just snow.

[snow_wizard]

Meanwhile.  Down to 39 now.  Been a long time since I've had a clear and calm night here.

[Slushy Inch]

MossMan special.

[SnowWillarrive]

23 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The area I live averages more per winter than MossMan area.

 

 

 

 

 

 

For sure you probably live in the best location from what I have observed despite your relatively low elevation. You really benefit from cold air damming. Seems like it takes a lot more effort to scour out cold air from your spot as well. 

[snow_wizard]

9 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

For sure you probably live in the best location from what I have observed despite your relatively low elevation. You really benefit from cold air damming. Seems like it takes a lot more effort to scour out cold air from your spot as well. 

Very true on him holding onto cold.  Even our area can do well with that.  We just need to get the snow!

Believe it or not there have been winters where our area does very well compared to places north of Seattle.  We have just been really unlucky on having lows track across SW WA in recent years.  Our time will come, and hopefully it will soon to tide me over until I can finally get out of here.