February 2024 Weather in the PNW

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

36 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

All phantom snow 

 

You are completely wrong, AGAIN.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

22 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not to pull a Jim, but I'm surprised there isn't more excitement about this. 

90% of the forum will not see sticking snow.  But most everyone will see snow falling at some point. There is a good chance I go through this first trough with zero precip. I counting on overrunning with that next front.  

[ShawniganLake]

The NAM is running.  ️ 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

These snow maps say snowfall not how deep it will be. 

[TacomaWx]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

90% of the forum will not see sticking snow.  But most everyone will see snow falling at some point. There is a good chance I go through this first trough with zero precip. I counting on overrunning with that next front.  

Yeah it’s unfortunate how bad that euro map is, some people probably will see snow but most of us below 500’ near the sound won’t get very much if any accumulation. 
 Atleast here IMBY…the stuff early next week doesn’t look good here. Looks good for randy. Most of the snow shown is 6-10 days out. 

[DeepFriedEgg]

28 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not to pull a Jim, but I'm surprised there isn't more excitement about this. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

What in the FUKK is wrong with the Seattle weather service.  Hey buds let's go Camping in the Olympics looks good with no advisory or warning. 48hrs ltr they are trying to figure how to get out because 18 inches of snow just fell overnight. No warning and no advisory and every model I see shows massive snow there.

Edited February 24 by MR.SNOWMIZER

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

51 degres and sunny currently, low of 23. Was a great drive back to Oregon today, i know cascadiawx will downvote this but i think this weather is great! Went to Mt Baker yesterday for the first time in years, had a great climb despite the DISGUSTINGLY low snowpack, which left more open crevasses than I've ever seen up there in winter, you'd think it was late November with the current snowpack.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah it’s unfortunate how bad that euro map is, some people probably will see snow but most of us below 500’ near the sound won’t get very much if any accumulation. 
 Atleast here IMBY…the stuff early next week doesn’t look good here. Looks good for randy. Most of the snow shown is 6-10 days out. 

If I can get the precip it will for sure be snow but unless there's new development with lobes of moisture rolling through once we are in the shower section I will screwed. It will be plenty cold here for sticking snow.  Even at your place if it's 35 degrees and a heavy shower passes over its easy for temp to drop to freezing.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Speak for yourself.

[ShawniganLake]

6 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

90% of the forum will not see sticking snow.  But most everyone will see snow falling at some point. There is a good chance I go through this first trough with zero precip. I counting on overrunning with that next front.  

Tuesday overrunning?  Trends haven’t been great there.  Precip arrives during the day Tuesday and south winds quickly bump 925mb temps above freezing.  I think the snow chances are fairly brief even in your area.  Not much easterly component to the flow so limited cold air damming.  Looks similar up here. Probably snow in the air for awhile and maybe a slushy inch of accumulation 

[TacomaWx]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

If I can get the precip it will for sure be snow but unless there's new development with lobes of moisture rolling through once we are in the shower section I will screwed. It will be plenty cold here for sticking snow.  Even at your place if it's 35 degrees and a heavy shower passes over its easy for temp to drop to freezing.

Precipitation here is probably going to be the bigger issue at my house early next week. It doesn’t look like much to work with in the central and south sound but maybe a little more in the EPSL. 

[lowlandsnow]

3 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

51 degres and sunny currently, low of 23. Was a great drive back to Oregon today, i know cascadiawx will downvote this but i think this weather is great! Went to Mt Baker yesterday for the first time in years, had a great climb despite the DISGUSTINGLY low snowpack, which left more open crevasses than I've ever seen up there in winter, you'd think it was late November with the current snowpack.

Snowpack is really abysmal going to be a tough year for the glaciers

[DeepFriedEgg]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Speak for yourself.

All jokes aside. You will do well but not the actual low land folk which is why there is no excitement. Writing has been on the wall for days.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Just now, lowlandsnow said:

Snowpack is really abysmal going to be a tough year for the glaciers

Good thing the mountains are about to get the white stuff DUMPED on them, hopefully this upcoming pattern continues for over a month to bring the snowpack above average. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

All jokes aside. You will do well but not the actual low land folk which is why there is no excitement. Writing has been on the wall for days.

I agree. The Wednesday night-Friday period has massive potential up here. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Tuesday overrunning?  Trends haven’t been great there.  Precip arrives during the day Tuesday and south winds quickly bump 925mb temps above freezing.  I think the snow chances are fairly brief even in your area.  Not much easterly component to the flow so limited cold air damming.  Looks similar up here. Probably snow in the air for awhile and maybe a slushy inch of accumulation 

South wind normally isn't a problem here. I had mentioned 2 days ago it's going to be dependent on timing. We will just have to see, I have had many snow events here with similar temps through the column elevation his huge around here with this pattern,  remember I'm close to 700ft, I checked my elevation last week with a more expensive device and I'm right at 688ft. There could be several inches here and down at 500ft nothing.  Seen that many many times here.

[ShawniganLake]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

South wind normally isn't a problem here. I had mentioned 2 days ago it's going to be dependent on timing. We will just have to see, I have had many snow events here with similar temps through the column elevation his huge around here with this pattern,  remember I'm close to 700ft, I checked my elevation last week with a more expensive device and I'm right at 688ft. There could be several inches here and down at 500ft nothing.  Seen that many many times here.

Might work out. I’d feel better about it if the flow was more E or SE

[snow_wizard]

The first trough is trending colder in the home stretch.  850s bottom out at -8.6 over SEA on the mean now.  By the time precip begins in King County on Monday 850s are already -8.  Always cold enough for snow with any elevation at all.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, ShawniganLake said:

Might work out. I’d feel better about it if the flow was more E or SE

Me too, always, me and Tim have talked about the sw wind here. It's amazing how well I am blocked here. Bremerton airport can be blowing 30mph and it be calm here. They are 6 miles east. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

OH 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The first rough is trending colder in the home stretch.  850s bottom out at -8.6 over SEA on the mean now.  By the time precip begins in King County 850s are already -8.  Always cold enough for snow with any elevation at all.

-8 is snow no matter the wind direction.  -6 here is snow easy. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

OH 

I think I called 6-12 for you a few days ago. Heck you could get more!!

[Cold Snap]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I had my eyes closed the entire 1/11/17 event. Still have never seen thundersnow. Anyone else gone their whole lives without seeing it?

I saw some in the convergence zone in Jan 2012.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

-8 is snow no matter the wind direction.  -6 here is snow easy. 

Somewhere in the Central Sound area is going to do well Monday evening.  Going to come down to fine details on placement.  The second trough has a myriad of snow chances with many different trajectories and surface wind possibilities.  No telling how it will play out for sure.  Looks pretty good for a shot of more serious cold around day 8 or so.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

I saw some in the convergence zone in Jan 2012.

Had it 3 times in a row here in Feb 2019. Me and my son were standing outside watching together.  3.2 inches in 1 hr.

[snow_wizard]

No matter how you slice it spring is going to start out cold!

[snow_wizard]

9 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

I saw some in the convergence zone in Jan 2012.

I'm not sure there was a C-Zone in Jan 2012.  There might have been with the snow that happened before the big one.  That one was weird here.  Decent snowfall followed by a big ice storm, and then a couple more inches of snow when the cold air got deeper again at the end of the event.

[ShawniganLake]

19 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Me too, always, me and Tim have talked about the sw wind here. It's amazing how well I am blocked here. Bremerton airport can be blowing 30mph and it be calm here. They are 6 miles east. 

It’s more the southerly flow 2000ft up that might be an issue. Not necessarily the wind at the surface.  Hopefully the models are too aggressive with that. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

No matter how you slice it spring is going to start out cold!

Looks lovely. 

[Deweydog]

15 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

No matter how you slice it spring is going to start out cold!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

It’s more the southerly flow 2000ft up that might be an issue. Not necessarily the wind at the surface.  Hopefully the models are too aggressive with that. 

I used to really be able to nail a forecast here when the weather station was working on gold mountain right behind my house at 1700ft. No matter what the model or forecast said if that station was 32 or lower with precip I had snow 100% of the time. It's been broken for 5 years now. I called the weather service and offered to donate money to fix the station with little luck. 

[snow_wizard]

47 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

What in the FUKK is wrong with the Seattle weather service.  Hey buds let's go Camping in the Olympics looks good with no advisory or warning. 48hrs ltr they are trying to figure how to get out because 18 inches of snow just fell overnight. No warning and no advisory and every model I see shows massive snow there.

They must be using the ICON.  That model is as blind as Mr Magoo when it comes to snow.  It shows one tiny bit of the Olympics getting a little bit of snow.  Just absurd.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

12z nam. Snow event for Portland and Seattle. I'm going to go out on a limb, Monday night is going to greatly over preform. A few inches in Portland and Seattle, a couple in salem, and @MossMan will get 4-7".

[MWG]

Interesting temps for next weekend.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I used to really be able to nail a forecast here when the weather station was working on gold mountain right behind my house at 1700ft. No matter what the model or forecast said if that station was 32 or lower with precip I had snow 100% of the time. It's been broken for 5 years now. I called the weather service and offered to donate money to fix the station with little luck. 

Too bad they don't have sensors readily available you can mount that have a long range transmitter.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

12z nam. Snow event for Portland and Seattle. I'm going to go out on a limb, Monday night is going to greatly over preform. A few inches in Portland and Seattle, a couple in salem, and @MossMan will get 4-7".

That's the 18z.  A tad south of the 12z on the Seattle area snow.  Looks decent.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Too bad they don't have sensors readily available you can mount that have a long range transmitter.

I have thought about that. It is ashame they don't fix it, how many sensors in the Puget Sound basin do we have that are 1700ft? NONE. It really shows what the lower air column is doing here. 

[snow_wizard]

One thing I will say that any precip in the Central Puget Sound after 0z Monday will be snow, except maybe right on the water.  With the temperature profile being shown rain would be pretty much impossible.

[ShawniganLake]

10 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I used to really be able to nail a forecast here when the weather station was working on gold mountain right behind my house at 1700ft. No matter what the model or forecast said if that station was 32 or lower with precip I had snow 100% of the time. It's been broken for 5 years now. I called the weather service and offered to donate money to fix the station with little luck. 

That sucks. It seems like the official observations for shawnigan Lake ended in November.  We had records going back to 1911. I’m pretty annoyed. Thought about maybe seeing if I could somehow take over.