February 2024 Weather in the PNW

[FroYoBro]

2 minutes ago, Andstorm said:

Why is that? i’ve noticed same and can’t identify a cause. 

Slightly higher elevation in that area helps a little. Also the overall geography with mountains closer to the south and east with the end of the Willamette valley probably helps the front stall out even more down there. The cold air above catches up faster to the stalled precipitation down there to the south. 

[MossMan]

Back to all snow now, the snow level must be right at 550’ lol 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Down to 38 here with pouring rain after a midnight high of 49. Have picked up over an inch of rain since yesterday afternoon which is pretty cool. Over 3.5” on the month now.

Ended up with an overcast, breezy and mild 52/46 spread yesterday. Rain at times especially afternoon and beyond.

[MossMan]

[FroYoBro]

Down to 38 here with light rain. Going to be a very chilly leap day. 

[the_convergence_zone]

45 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I have some of the sloppiest soup accumulated I have ever seen! Don’t know the temp as my weather station is not transmitting for some reason. 

If we can get one sloppy inch like that in Seattle this weekend I'll be thrilled. 

[Weiner Warrior]

GFS continues to take away snow for western WA. At this rate we'll get a few flakes tonight and that's it.

[Weiner Warrior]

Winter canceled.. I'm moving to the coast where they get all the snow. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Temps in Springfield/Downtown EUG seem to be in the 33-34 range. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

6 minutes ago, Weiner Warrior said:

GFS continues to take away snow for western WA. At this rate we'll get a few flakes tonight and that's it.

How does the nam and fv3 look? 

[DeepFriedEgg]

Absolutely dumping on Santiam Pass

[Cascadia_Wx]

It was a little annoying how the period in the warm sector stretched out just long enough to mess up the high temp the last three days of the month. The last four days of February looked a lot cooler on paper than they actually ended up. Hopefully the first week of March fares better.

It’s not like anywhere in the Portland area was actually going to get a below average month anyway. PDX should end up around +2 for the month. First above average February there since 2016. So at least we got that monkey off our backs.

Edited February 29 by Cascadia_Wx

[Snowlova]

4 minutes ago, Weiner Warrior said:

GFS continues to take away snow for western WA. At this rate we'll get a few flakes tonight and that's it.

FWIW 12z HRRRRRRRRR did turn way more bullish for snow tonight than previously. Mesoscale models are better at this range (at least for the weekend). Big nowcast situation

[DeepFriedEgg]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Temps in Springfield/Downtown EUG seem to be in the 33-34 range. 

Visible snow east of Eugene into Springfield. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, Snowlova said:

FWIW 12z HRRRRRRRRR did turn way more bullish for snow tonight than previously. Mesoscale models are better at this range (at least for the weekend). Big nowcast situation

Yep. Models look to weak on precip compared to sat pic.

[Weiner Warrior]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

How does the nam and fv3 look? 

Not too exciting for Seattle. Decent for the canal.

[Weiner Warrior]

A little hope with this

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just going to wait and watch, models always struggle with shower type precip. The sat pic looks amazing. Tons of moisture out there.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

34F and back and forth rain and snow.

[SnowWillarrive]

15 minutes ago, Weiner Warrior said:

Not too exciting for Seattle. Decent for the canal.

12 inches in Longview

[MossMan]

Slushy roads. 

[the_convergence_zone]

9 minutes ago, Snowlova said:

FWIW 12z HRRRRRRRRR did turn way more bullish for snow tonight than previously. Mesoscale models are better at this range (at least for the weekend). Big nowcast situation

Yes, this is the rare case where the mesoscale models have lower snow levels than the global models. Really fascinating. 

Looks like the 12Z UW-WRF has ~500' snow levels for the first surge of precip around midnight - 3 AM. And then it doesn't have a second surge of precip at all in the early morning hours. The HRRR has lower snow levels for the first surge of precip (same timing as UW-WRF) but then has a second wave of precip in the 5-7 AM timeframe which is the ideal time period to get the snow level closer to ~100-200 ft and get actual accumulations on the higher hills. 

The HRRR is also just colder than everything else -- it has Sea-Tac/Boeing at 34 or 35 around midnight and it has the 925s just a tad cooler, like 0.5 to 1 C cooler than the ECMWF. 

I'm curious if the HRRR can win this one, but if I was a forecaster I would just predict mixed rain/snow in the lowlands. 

 

 

 

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Lots of snow mixing in here now. Visible flakes falling. Down to 36.

[Eugene-5SW]

34º with light rain and some flakes mixing in. About what I expected.

1.04" storm total so far a bit better than I expected!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Should see a snow advisory issued for Kitsap and most of the Olympic peninsula soon.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Snow intensity increasing for the moment. Hanging at around 3" on most surfaces. Very very wet snow. 

[Snownerd3000]

11 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

12 inches in Longview

Wasn't Longview the winner last month?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Yes, this is the rare case where the mesoscale models have lower snow levels than the global models. Really fascinating. 

Looks like the 12Z UW-WRF has ~500' snow levels for the first surge of precip around midnight - 3 AM. And then it doesn't have a second surge of precip at all in the early morning hours. The HRRR has lower snow levels for the first surge of precip (same timing as UW-WRF) but then has a second wave of precip in the 5-7 AM timeframe which is the ideal time period to get the snow level closer to ~100-200 ft and get actual accumulations on the higher hills. 

The HRRR is also just colder than everything else -- it has Sea-Tac/Boeing at 34 or 35 around midnight and it has the 925s just a tad cooler, like 0.5 to 1 C cooler than the ECMWF. 

I'm curious if the HRRR can win this one, but if I was a forecaster I would just predict mixed rain/snow in the lowlands. 

 

 

 

 

Problem is what are considered lowlands? I would say 1-3 accumulation above 400ft. Problem with a forecast that says mix in lowlands is there are many MANY spots between 500-700ft and they will get snow easy.  it is going to a case where near the sound you have nothing and Mom's house up the road at 400ft elevation has 3 inches on the road. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Snow intensity increasing for the moment. Hanging at around 3" on most surfaces. Very very wet snow. 

My guess, Sunday morning you have between 10-14 on the ground.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

My guess, Sunday morning you have between 10-14 on the ground.

We shall see. Up to 13.5" on the season now, good enough to pass 2013-14, 2015-16, and 2020-21! Hopefully move past 2012-13 by tomorrow. 

Edited February 29 by SilverFallsAndrew

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We shall see. Up to 13.5" on the season now, good enough to pass 2013-14, 2015-16, and 2020-21! Hopefully move past 2012-13 by tomorrow. 

That shower area out there is looking very organized. When that rolls in you are getting smashed.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

WOW

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Back to all snow now, the snow level must be right at 550’ lol 

I think the snow level is lower up there.   I am guessing its around 1200-1300 feet down here.   There are few flakes mixed with the rain here but its not sticking like it is at your house.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

 

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

That shower area out there is looking very organized. When that rolls in you are getting smashed.

Yeah, ratios should be better the next couple of nights, the airmass is still actually fairly marginal even for up here. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

I think the snow level is lower up there.   I am guessing its around 1200-1300 feet down here.   

Sounds about right. And makes sense given the current airmass. Coldest air aloft is still offshore. 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

My son in salem is reporting snow!

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

 

Yeah, ratios should be better the next couple of nights, the airmass is still actually fairly marginal even for up here. 

ECMWF doesn't show the 925mb temps changing much over the weekend.     Generally colder in the morning.

Next 3 afternoons below... going to be tough to have any accumulations during the day obviously.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF doesn't show the 925mb temps changing much over the weekend.     Generally colder in the morning.

Next 3 afternoons below... going to be tough to have any accumulations during the day obviously.  

Yeah, I think most folX understand the snow level generally lifts a bit in the afternoon in MARCH.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The problem with those 925 maps with this pattern is all it takes is one strong shower to lower the 925 temp a bunch.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah, I think most folX understand the snow level generally lifts a bit in the afternoon in MARCH.

Its more about the models... even the ECMWF has been insisting on significant accumulations happening up here during the middle of the day.   Doesn't make sense to me but maybe if its convective?