Cascadia_Wx Posted March 20 Report Share Posted March 20 6 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: Huge increase in mountain snowfall this weekend on the 18z GFS. Shows over 2 feet for Snoqualmie and Stevens just through Sunday night. Let’s hope it verifies. Situation is getting dire for the Washington Cascades. 1 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted March 21 Author Report Share Posted March 21 2 hours ago, the_convergence_zone said: I don't want to rehash an earlier conversation but I agree that the dice are loaded against us right now, but there is plenty that can happen between now and July that could reduce wildfire danger or set the stage for a below average wildfire year. If you have property in a wildfire danger area, you should probably be concerned about every single year going forward. Oh we're absolutely fuckked in the next decade at some point. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 10 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said: Living here and hating 35-45 degree drizzle is kind of like living in Florida and hating thunderstorms k 1 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 12z EPS I like the generally near to below average look with precip chances for at least the next 7-10 days. 1 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 (edited) 4 hours ago, Phil said: I can smell wildfire smoke. Deja vu all over again. Hmmm…Not sure you have ever smelled wildfire smoke like we have here around here. This was a bright sunny day…Was supposed to be a bright sunny day. Edited March 21 by MossMan 1 3 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 27 minutes ago, MossMan said: Hmmm…Not sure you have ever smelled wildfire smoke like we have here around here. This was a bright sunny day…Was supposed to be a bright sunny day. The Canadian fires dumped thick smoke into DC and all of the NE last year. He knows. And no amount of heavy rain falling in DC was going to change the situation at the source so it just kept coming even when it was raining. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: The Canadian fires dumped thick smoke into DC and all of the NE last year. He knows. And no amount of heavy rain falling in DC was going to change the situation at the source so it just kept coming even when it was raining. Oh yeah, I remember the east coast flipping out about that now. Hopefully it all stays East again this season! They haven’t lived until they experience a September 2020 type event. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 The West vs East stuff is so dumb. We all live on the same continent, and ultimately planet. 2 1 2 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 Looks like a 56/45 day here. Mostly cloudy, with some brief morning drizzle then some scenic dark, brooding skies at points this afternoon. Getting sunbreaks now which is lighting up the landscape nicely. 1 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 9 minutes ago, MossMan said: Oh yeah, I remember the east coast flipping out about that now. Hopefully it all stays East again this season! They haven’t lived until they experience a September 2020 type event. It was about the same as 2020 out here... just didn't last as long. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: The West vs East stuff is so dumb. We all live on the same continent, and ultimately planet. Oh come on, west is best…Traitor. 5 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 1 hour ago, MossMan said: Hmmm…Not sure you have ever smelled wildfire smoke like we have here around here. This was a bright sunny day…Was supposed to be a bright sunny day. Last June looked like that here, the blood orange sky with the sun obscured. Hope I never experience it again. That wood/smoke smell got into the carpets and everything, took weeks to eliminate it. Apparently today there were 12 fires within 75 miles of here. All sparked by downed power lines in the mountains (downslope windstorm). Gusts up to 77mph were measured immediately downstream of the terrain. Didn’t get quite that windy here (maxed at 45-50mph) but there was enough smoke that it looked like rain on radar. Talk about a crazy deep boundary layer..temp reached 70°F despite vigorous CAA (850mb temps near 0°C). Dispersion was maxed out. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 Wildfires are supposed to be a west coast/PNW problem. Why are they suddenly a thing here? This never used to happen. March is always dry and windy. Have never seen the entire Shenandoah Valley spontaneously combust like this. Breaks my damn heart. 1 1 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groundhog Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 And typical spring weather has returned to Calgary, Alberta: multiple days of wind-driven snow and well below freezing. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said: The West vs East stuff is so dumb. We all live on the same continent, and ultimately planet. Hear hear. Some people act like we’re a different species or something, haha. I’ve loved the West every time I’ve visited, whether it be the PNW/BC, Utah, and even Arizona! All unique flavors in their own way. 4 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 1 hour ago, MossMan said: Oh come on, west is best…Traitor. 2 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 1 hour ago, MossMan said: Oh yeah, I remember the east coast flipping out about that now. Hopefully it all stays East again this season! They haven’t lived until they experience a September 2020 type event. It was basically the same. Particle counts reached 1100μg/m^3 in NYC and 650μg/m^3 here. Probably my least favorite weather event of all time. 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 15 minutes ago, Phil said: Wildfires are supposed to be a west coast/PNW problem. Why are they suddenly a thing here? This never used to happen. March is always dry and windy. Have never seen the entire Shenandoah Valley spontaneously combust like this. Breaks my D**n heart. Looks like it’s about 100 acres, and 10% contained. Sad to see but fortunately far from “the entire Shenandoah valley”. Your post kinda freaked me out at first! Hopefully they get it contained quickly. 1 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunriver Snow Zone Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 34 minutes ago, Phil said: Last June looked like that here, the blood orange sky with the sun obscured. Hope I never experience it again. That wood/smoke smell got into the carpets and everything, took weeks to eliminate it. Apparently today there were 12 fires within 75 miles of here. All sparked by downed power lines in the mountains (downslope windstorm). Gusts up to 77mph were measured immediately downstream of the terrain. Didn’t get quite that windy here (maxed at 45-50mph) but there was enough smoke that it looked like rain on radar. Talk about a crazy deep boundary layer..temp reached 70°F despite vigorous CAA (850mb temps near 0°C). Dispersion was maxed out. Complain some more... you get a few days like that a decade, we get 5-20 days like that a summer here. Might as well enjoy the cool aspect about it and the neat colors. You really don't have it that bad, and neither do we. 1 Quote Coldest temp this winter: -7 Jan 13th Snow depth at Mount Bachelor (last updated April 29th) 88" Snow depth at my home (updated April 29th) late season 1"! 23-24 seasonal snowfall at home (updated April 29th) 92"!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 11 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: Looks like it’s about 100 acres, and 10% contained. Sad to see but fortunately far from “the entire Shenandoah valley”. Your post kinda freaked me out at first! Hopefully they get it contained quickly. Hyperbole can be therapeutic. It’s the number of blazes that’s most confusing to me. I didn’t see anything special about today’s conditions to trigger a dozen blazes within a 4hr window. Maybe infrastructure is just falling apart out there. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 9 minutes ago, Phil said: Hyperbole can be therapeutic. It’s the number of blazes that’s most confusing to me. I didn’t see anything special about today’s conditions to trigger a dozen blazes within a 4hr window. Maybe infrastructure is just falling apart out there. From what I could tell, they are thinking it’s downed power lines from the wind. 1 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 38 minutes ago, Phil said: Hyperbole can be therapeutic. It’s the number of blazes that’s most confusing to me. I didn’t see anything special about today’s conditions to trigger a dozen blazes within a 4hr window. Maybe infrastructure is just falling apart out there. March and early April is the main fire season in the Midwest... before the spring green up. Of the course the prairies used to burn unabated almost every year in its natural state back in the 1800s. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 1 hour ago, Phil said: Wildfires are supposed to be a west coast/PNW problem. Why are they suddenly a thing here? This never used to happen. March is always dry and windy. Have never seen the entire Shenandoah Valley spontaneously combust like this. Breaks my D**n heart. Downed power lines breaks your heart? 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 Randy... are your relatives in MN talking about this yet? That is a ton of snow over just the next 5 days! 2 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 2 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said: The West vs East stuff is so dumb. We all live on the same continent, and ultimately planet. Get out of here with that new age nonsense. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 Last of the snow. 5 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Randy... are your relatives in MN talking about this yet? That is a ton of snow over just the next 5 days! I will have to post that snow map on their FB! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 58 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Downed power lines breaks your heart? Trollololol. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 Nice evening out there. Still 50 F and no wind. That smell of convective rain in the air. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 4 minutes ago, westcoastexpat said: Nice evening out there. Still 50 F and no wind. That smell of convective rain in the air. Does convective rain smell different than stratiform rain? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 It’s arriving as we speak! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 4 minutes ago, Phil said: Does convective rain smell different than stratiform rain? Ozone https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/storm-scents-smell-rain/ 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Last of the snow. I’m very surprised it survived the HEAT, Andrew. Hopefully your sheep will be able to eat the rest of the snow before it melts. 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 3 hours ago, Phil said: Last June looked like that here, the blood orange sky with the sun obscured. Hope I never experience it again. That wood/smoke smell got into the carpets and everything, took weeks to eliminate it. Apparently today there were 12 fires within 75 miles of here. All sparked by downed power lines in the mountains (downslope windstorm). Gusts up to 77mph were measured immediately downstream of the terrain. Didn’t get quite that windy here (maxed at 45-50mph) but there was enough smoke that it looked like rain on radar. Talk about a crazy deep boundary layer..temp reached 70°F despite vigorous CAA (850mb temps near 0°C). Dispersion was maxed out. I'll say! How does this happen? Mixing in the lee of the Appalacians? 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 54 minutes ago, Phil said: Does convective rain smell different than stratiform rain? Petrichor is most often a convective phenomena here as the only time it rains after a long stretch of dry weather is during the Summer and early Fall, when our big thunderstorms usually show up. 3 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Last of the snow. Hopefully you will get a several more feet of snow through June before the trees start budding by the 4th of July... ahead of their long 3 week period each year when they are leafed out. 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 26 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Petrichor is most often a convective phenomena here as the only time it rains after a long stretch of dry weather is during the Summer and early Fall, when our big thunderstorms usually show up. There are plenty of years our warm and dry season ends with a stratiform rain event too, though. I’d say more often than not. I tend to notice petrichor most after 3-4 day+ warm/dry periods in the mid spring through early summer though, whether the rain is stratiform or convective. I think the smell has a lot to do with plants and the chemicals they are producing in response to rainfall, or perhaps more precisely how these latent chemicals react when exposed to water. 1 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunriver Snow Zone Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 38 and cloudy currently, 27/66 day. Good night! Quote Coldest temp this winter: -7 Jan 13th Snow depth at Mount Bachelor (last updated April 29th) 88" Snow depth at my home (updated April 29th) late season 1"! 23-24 seasonal snowfall at home (updated April 29th) 92"!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 38 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: There are plenty of years our warm and dry season ends with a stratiform rain event too, though. I’d say more often than not. I tend to notice petrichor most after 3-4 day+ warm/dry periods in the mid spring through early summer though, whether the rain is stratiform or convective. I think the smell has a lot to do with plants and the chemicals they are producing in response to rainfall, or perhaps more precisely how these latent chemicals react when exposed to water. I'm not supposing that the means by which precipitation occurs matters. My point is that the association between petrichor and convection in the PNW makes some sense since our most memorable storms tend to occur during the dry season, when there is an abundance of petrichor-causing chemicals laying about. Also, our lightning storms often occur on the back end of heat waves, after multiple days of dry, warm weather, so they're often by their own nature primed to be aromatic. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 8 hours without a post is pretty close to a record. Analogs? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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