April 2024 Weather in the PNW

[TT-SEA]

20 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

They need every freaking drop they can get. They are in constant crisis. We’ve destroyed our planet. We need water to HEAL. 

A warmer world is also much wetter.   Check out the PETM period when the PNW was like Venezuela and the arctic was covered in forests.   

[Phishy Wx]

13 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

‘Simply mind-boggling’: world record temperature jump in Antarctic raises fears of catastrophe | Climate crisis | The Guardian

Another depressing statistic.  38.5 degress Celsius above their normal for the day.  Imagine if that were to happen anywhere else in the world.

don't worry, the deniers will say its no biggie

[SilverFallsAndrew]

45 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

‘Simply mind-boggling’: world record temperature jump in Antarctic raises fears of catastrophe | Climate crisis | The Guardian

Another depressing statistic.  38.5 degress Celsius above their normal for the day.  Imagine if that were to happen anywhere else in the world.

Some would say this is just theatrics and you are losing your mind!

[Phil]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

First it looked ridgy... then it looked like it troughing would be focused to the north... and now the models have come around to more of the same with that system diving down to SoCal next weekend.   Crazy model swings the last few days.

Tbh I’m not sure what it is about this particular pattern that is tripping guidance up. This kind of instability isn’t unusual for the GFS/GEFS, but the EPS and GEPS also got thrown for a loop.

I had suspected something was wrong with those crazy ridgy solutions only because it wouldn’t fit the models’ own MJO projection(s) (not even secondary EOFs). But I’m at a loss as to why there was/is such a disconnect in the first place.

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Spreads rainfall around... pretty important for balancing things out.

El Niño releases stored heat too. A lot of it.

La Niña stores heat. She is the antagonist, hiding her true intent by cooling the atmosphere.

58 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

‘Simply mind-boggling’: world record temperature jump in Antarctic raises fears of catastrophe | Climate crisis | The Guardian

Another depressing statistic.  38.5 degress Celsius above their normal for the day.  Imagine if that were to happen anywhere else in the world.

That article is pure hype/spin. Such anomalies are not unheard of in the Antarctic (especially the WAS area). Only difference is time of year, in this case.

[Ray]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

If we're still kicking we will probably head down to Weed to see the 2045 eclipse. My wife is inheriting a shack down there, so we can watch it from our hovel. 

By then I will be two days shy of my 61st birthday, my wife will be 56. 

Cripes, you will be my age now and I'll be 82.  Time passes quickly!

[Phil]

Welp I have full blown pink eye, complete with photophobia. Because, of f**king course.  I have to be living in a simulation bc this is scripted too perfectly.

Needless to say, no eclipse travel for me. I’ll have to enjoy my 90% view from here, with one functioning eye (barring a last second miracle).

[Phil]

At least I’ll have an opportunity to catch some of these, assuming I don’t go blind or bite the dust early.

2099 is probably off the table, though.  

[Phil]

3 days ago this looked like the beginning of an amplified+dynamic western ridge/eastern trough pattern. Or at least something more variable.

Mother Nature: “Just kidding! Now, back to your regularly scheduled 2024 programming.”

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

3 days ago this looked like the beginning of an amplified+dynamic western ridge/eastern trough pattern. Or at least something more variable.

Mother Nature: “Just kidding! Now, back to your regularly scheduled 2024 programming.”

Wow the tables have turned 

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow the tables have turned 

Everything has gone Jesse’s way this year.

[Cascadia_Wx]

12 hours ago, MossMan said:

Hoppin night on the forum! 

Weird. My phone must leave me logged in all the time, because I’d been asleep a few hours when this was posted.

Right now is the first time I’ve checked the forum today.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

This post is kinda off topic but I don't really give a fk. People who live more than 25 miles east of the Rockies are all insane. You all need mental help.

Now I remember why I don't come here anymore, an eclipse is the only thing that makes it worthit to come here. Although I will say, there are a lot of nice people here and they've been very welcoming, it must have something to do with their brains not working properly.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

This post is kinda off topic but I don't really give a fk. People who live more than 25 miles east of the Rockies are all insane. You all need mental help.

Now I remember why I don't come here anymore, an eclipse is the only thing thst makes it worthit to come here. Although I will say, there are a lot of nice people here and they've been very welcoming, it must have something to do with their brains not working properly.

Haha! 

[Timmy Supercell]

31 minutes ago, Phil said:

3 days ago this looked like the beginning of an amplified+dynamic western ridge/eastern trough pattern. Or at least something more variable.

Mother Nature: “Just kidding! Now, back to your regularly scheduled 2024 programming.”

Any idea how this summer might start and end? I want to ease into it and not have 90's in June this year. and then not still have 90's all September.. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Any idea how this summer might start and end? I want to ease into it and not have 90's in June this year. and then not still have 90's all September.. 

My grandmother lived across the river from you in Ironton. It was always hot in the summer when we visited. Putridly humid! 

[SnarkyGoblin]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

That article is pure hype/spin. Such anomalies are not unheard of in the Antarctic (especially the WAS area). Only difference is time of year, in this case.

Good gravy.  So when they say such a severe anomaly has never happened, you think that's just a lie? 

I swear your arrogance sometimes....

[Timmy Supercell]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

My grandmother lived across the river from you in Ironton. It was always hot in the summer when we visited. Putridly humid! 

My first one wasn't so bad, and our early Fall was a nicer transition off of summer than last year.

There can be worse places for summer weather too

[Front Ranger]

2 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

that Moderate drought in the Cascades will go severe pretty quickly without a wetter than normal spring, same in Idaho

Severe is only the mid range of drought conditions on that map. The drought monitor folks are as dramatic as Andrew.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

My first one wasn't so bad, and our early Fall was a nicer transition off of summer than last year.

There can be worse places for summer weather too

Oh yeah. Though late summer is more humid than say, Oklahoma, it’s not quite as hot and there can be some cool days. We had a clipper come through once when I was there and it was lovely for a couple of days afterwards. 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Severe is only the mid range of drought conditions on that map. The drought monitor folks are as dramatic as Andrew.

I've been in moderate drought on that Map many times when we've had above average precip for months or even years. It's a useless map.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

I've been in moderate drought on that Map many times when we've had above average precop for months or even years. It's a useless map.

The soil moisture in central Oregon is still below average. I was noticing that today. It can take years to recover from a severe drought. We aren’t fooling around here! 
 

(Dramatic enough?) 

[Deweydog]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

At least I’ll have an opportunity to catch some of these, assuming I don’t go blind or bite the dust early.

2099 is probably off the table, though.  

There are a dozen In and Out’s in the path of totality in 2045. We’ll be there assuming my skin doesn’t kill me by then.

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The soil moisture in central Oregon is still below average. I was noticing that today. It can take years to recover from a severe drought. We aren’t fooling around here! 
 

(Dramatic enough?) 

 

[Phil]

32 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

This post is kinda off topic but I don't really give a fk. People who live more than 25 miles east of the Rockies are all insane. You all need mental help.

Now I remember why I don't come here anymore, an eclipse is the only thing that makes it worthit to come here. Although I will say, there are a lot of nice people here and they've been very welcoming, it must have something to do with their brains not working properly.

What, no details?

[Phil]

1 hour ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Good gravy.  So when they say such a severe anomaly has never happened, you think that's just a lie? 

I swear your arrogance sometimes....

Yes, by omission and lack of context. Such a high amplitude temperature jump may not have occurred at that particular station in its limited period of record, but that is a function of probability (station in right place at the right time). Standard deviations are HUGE in the Antarctic. And most extreme anomalies tend to occur where there are no stations to begin with.

Yes, it’s an impressive anomaly. But it’s not indicative of anything beyond noise/random variability in weather.

[iFred]

13 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

There are a dozen In and Out’s in the path of totality in 2045. We’ll be there assuming my skin doesn’t kill me by then.

A bit depressing to see that by the 2044 eclipse that I’ll be in my late 30s.

[Phil]

@SnarkyGoblin This might be the dumbest sh*t I’ve ever read. Not blaming you at all, most people wouldn’t suspect a prestigious legacy media outlet like “the guardian” of such prolific incompetence.

But yes, pseudoscientific babble is too kind a descriptor for this rancid hunk of donkey dung masquerading as a climate science article. How morons like this get into positions allowing them to spew disinformation at will is beyond me. Holy molasses.

There are at least 5 catastrophic errors in the first 2 paragraphs of this article. Can you spot them?

[Timmy Supercell]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yes, by omission. Such a high amplitude temperature jump may not have occurred at that particular station in its limited period of record, but that is a function of probability (station in right place at the right time). Standard deviations are HUGE in the Antarctic. And most extreme anomalies tend to occur where there are no stations to begin with.

Yes, it’s an impressive anomaly. But it’s not indicative of anything beyond noise/random variability in weather.

I think anomalies in general are greater in colder climates, I saw examples of really large ones in Klamath Falls though they were almost exclusively in certain times of the year. I remember being surprised Nov 2016 wasn't in the top warm ones in that town after finding it ended up with a rather large spread from normal.

So, in that case, what would classify it as a climate breaking statistic? Need more info for sure.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

On 4/6/2024 at 8:15 AM, SilverFallsAndrew said:

On 4/6/2024 at 8:09 AM, Frontal Snowsquall said:

I would want to be somewhere in nature and avoid the large crowds. I would choose to watch the total solar eclipse somewhere in the Ozarks. It’s beautiful and kind of reminds me of the PNW. 

Ozarks are fantastic. It’s all hardwoods though, so a bit different than here. 

Expand  

 

On 4/6/2024 at 8:28 AM, BLI snowman said:

That's my plan.  Never been to that region before so it'll give me a chance to explore a little with the eclipse as a bonus.

 

On 4/6/2024 at 8:41 AM, MossMan said:

Yeah somewhere that will not feature hoards of people everywhere with jammed roads would be more my cup of tea. 

The Ozarks have some beautiful waterfalls. Kind of reminds me of Multnomah Falls and Silver Falls. I hope you can get to enjoy the area and take some pictures so we can see!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Time to be afraid!

[Deweydog]

15 minutes ago, iFred said:

A bit depressing to see that by the 2044 eclipse that I’ll be in my late 30s.

Oof. That puts it in perspective. Word of warning, once you hit 20 it FLIES BY.

[Timmy Supercell]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Time to be afraid!

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Time to be afraid!

Old Glory is trying its hardest to give you at least SOME peace of mind!

 

[Deweydog]

6 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

 

 

The Ozarks have some beautiful waterfalls. Kind of reminds me of Multnomah Falls and Silver Falls. I hope you can get to enjoy the area and take some pictures so we can see!

Good show too.  

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

I think anomalies in general are greater in colder climates, I saw examples of really large ones in Klamath Falls though they were almost exclusively in certain times of the year. I remember being surprised Nov 2016 wasn't in the top warm ones in that town after finding it ended up with a rather large spread from normal.

So, in that case, what would classify it as a climate breaking statistic? Need more info for sure.

Yes. Standard deviations are very large in cold climates that are removed from substantial oceanic influence. The polar regions also house the tightest thermal/insolation gradients and strongest storms/planetary wave activity. Extreme variability is the rule, not the exception. And the most extreme places go unmeasured (by sfc stations, at least).

The aforementioned article draws the absurd comparison between temperature variability in the Antarctic with variability in the UK. Then intentionally ignores the scientific context explaining the vast differences and why they cannot be compared.

Just one of many gargantuan mistakes littering every paragraph.

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

Another attempt by the globalist elites and the principalities and powers that control them to scare us out of our freedoms and bring about the Great Reset where we will have to eat bugs and wear the mark of the beast. The Antichrist will come soon and bring about the long prophesied one world government with the apocalypse soon to follow.

People today prefer safety and security over true freedom, as was proven during the pandemic. 

If this is sarcasm, you need to make it clearer. A good number of people will take this literally. Like, word for word.

[TT-SEA]

29 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Time to be afraid!

Your pearl-clutching drama and extreme hyperbole seriously disminshes any message you intend.   It's cartoonish.    

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Any idea how this summer might start and end? I want to ease into it and not have 90's in June this year. and then not still have 90's all September.. 

Blowtorch summer, especially the second half. Niña onset with descending +QBO and in-situ -PMM is the worst possible setup.

June might be closer to climo, but not guaranteed. 2010 started torching in April and didn’t relent until December.

[Phishy Wx]

gunna be hot as ballz summer

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

1 hour ago, iFred said:

A bit depressing to see that by the 2044 eclipse that I’ll be in my late 30s.

You're joking, right? There's no way you're only in your late teens right now, right?