April 2024 Weather in the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice batch of rain moving through. Generally light and life giving. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Incredibly live giving and ecosystem refreshing!

[MV_snow]

13 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Good god, we are on fire as a planet right now.

This post got almost as many different reacts as Nyberg’s flameout post!

[MossMan]

I was pleasantly surprised when I woke up and it wasn’t raining yet so I got on the mower and got that done. Just starting to rain now. Time to mow the dog hair in the house now with the vacuum! 

[Omegaraptor]

1 hour ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

Not from Hilary though.

We had a surprise thunderstorm from Hilary. I wasn’t expecting anything.

[Omegaraptor]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

The Seattle area had a 0.0 departure for March and is currently -0.4 for April.     Some insane torching over the last 6 weeks.  

Yeppers… much ado over what will probably end up a pretty averageish April, temp-wise, for the majority of the region.

[Blizzard777]

My vehicle awaits the assault from the storms in a bit !!! The action should start in a few hours here in Oklahoma City. Currently very windy !!

[Phil]

12 hours ago, SnowWillarrive said:

I’m scared for this summer

Hottest summer in US history, quite likely. We’re all gonna suffer together, holding arms.

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF is improved.    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF is improved.    

More rain and deep troughing?

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Phil said:

Hottest summer in US history, quite likely. We’re all gonna suffer together, holding arms.

I have seen this headline pop up on my computer so many times in the last week.  It's like you are writing them. 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Almost seemed like the GFS was trying to revert back to the pattern of the last 4-6 weeks yesterday, and now it’s “correcting” itself. Maybe a sign that more -ENSO forcing is coming into the picture?

The niño signature is collapsing but not seeing the niña signature yet. What we have now is simply a strong MJO/CCKW (subseasonal) component in the tropical forcing.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I have seen this headline pop up on my computer so many times in the last week.  It's like you are writing them. 

I wouldn’t make that prediction if it weren’t for the UHI corruption of surface temperature records.  

But pattern this summer (sprawling CONUS ridge as LF pattern) virtually guarantees a record breaker. Or close to it.

[Phishy Wx]

we ain't gotten shiit over here yet

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

More rain and deep troughing?

Maybe some life giving sunshine from our Lord and Creator.    

And since climate change is real and accelerating and all I hear on here is that its only a matter of time until the forests burn then it really doesn't matter anyways.    Just re-arranging deck chairs on the Titanic if the ship is inevitably sinking.   Right Andrew?   Lean into your climate change drama.   

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

38 minutes ago, MV_snow said:

This post got almost as many different reacts as Nyberg’s flameout post!

Its not even close to the same amount

[Phil]

I’m liking the -NAO signal heading into May, though. Many of the post-niño summers have a period of late-spring blocking, offering a final reprieve before hell starts. Hopefully we can take advantage of that opportunity.

Also would be another sign the system state is far-removed from the +TNH state that has dominated the majority of recent summers.

[Phil]

90s already beginning here.

5 months from now it’ll be late September..and probably have the same exact weather only more humid. Why can’t winter last half the year too?

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

90s already beginning here.

5 months from now it’ll be late September..and probably have the same exact weather only more humid. Why can’t winter last half the year too?

A gorgeous 75 here and all blue sky here...  waaaaaaay to your south. 

[Phishy Wx]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

90s already beginning here.

5 months from now it’ll be late September..and probably have the same exact weather only more humid. Why can’t winter last half the year too?

You need some latitude and/or altitude

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

I’m liking the -NAO signal heading into May, though. Many of the post-niño summers have a period of late-spring blocking, offering a final reprieve before hell starts. Hopefully we can take advantage of that opportunity.

Also would be another sign the system state is far-removed from the +TNH state that has dominated the majority of recent summers.

I think the summer is going to be stuck in a >XKZ/HLT pattern under WFG+/ABC- conditions, due to the HVJE/KSUF forcing in the +1A-HDW region of the JSHDW/North Antarctic Ocean, causing a mass FNEO× pattern in the PRHEU layer of the atmosphere. This summer is going to be a peak HFHSOUF/IFGDSJ- pattern in the east coast, and a UFHEJ+ pattern in the west coast. Just my opinion based on the HDGS/PAHF/IAHC+×-< forcing.

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

The Seattle area had a 0.0 departure for March and is currently -0.4 for April.     Some insane torching over the last 6 weeks.  

To be fair, that's SEA and they've been an outlier on the cool side with anomalies. Seattle city office was +1.0 for March, and is running +.7 for April.

Overall, not a torchy spring so far, just a bit above normal most places.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

I think the summer is going to be stuck in a >XKZ/HLT pattern under WFG+/ABC- conditions, due to the HVJE/KSUF forcing in the +1A-HDW region of the JSHDW/North Antarctic Ocean, causing a mass FNEO× pattern in the PRHEU layer of the atmosphere. This summer is going to be a peak HFHSOUF/IFGDSJ- pattern in the east coast, and a UFHEJ+ pattern in the west coast. Just my opinion based on the HDGS/PAHF/IAHC+×-< forcing.

You don’t know what the NAO is?

And I’ve linked references to the TNH multiple times. CPC references it as a seasonal/cold season index, but it’s present in some form year round.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/tnh.shtml

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

To be fair, that's SEA and they've been an outlier on the cool side with anomalies. Seattle city office was +1.0 for March, and is running +.7 for April.

Overall, not a torchy spring so far, just a bit above normal most places.

BLI was  -1.1 for March and currently -1.7 for April.    The last 6 weeks have been very torchy for western WA. 

[Front Ranger]

A little surprise snow here this am. Just 35 at DEN, pretty raw for noon at the end of April.

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

BLI was  -1.1 for March and currently -1.7 for April.    The last 6 weeks have been very torchy for western WA. 

Yeah, BLI's anomalies seem to have overcorrected from what they saw last decade, similar to SEA and SLE to a lesser degree.

Opposite of what's happened with OLM and PDX recently.

[Front Ranger]

24 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

A gorgeous 75 here and all blue sky here...  waaaaaaay to your south. 

DCA is currently 57. Phil must have been looking ahead to Monday.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Light rain in the SLE. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

30 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

I think the summer is going to be stuck in a >XKZ/HLT pattern under WFG+/ABC- conditions, due to the HVJE/KSUF forcing in the +1A-HDW region of the JSHDW/North Antarctic Ocean, causing a mass FNEO× pattern in the PRHEU layer of the atmosphere. This summer is going to be a peak HFHSOUF/IFGDSJ- pattern in the east coast, and a UFHEJ+ pattern in the west coast. Just my opinion based on the HDGS/PAHF/IAHC+×-< forcing.

Sounds like a Phil comment

[Phil]

10 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

DCA is currently 57. Phil must have been looking ahead to Monday.

Yes today’s the last nice day. Getting North Bend weather at the moment but will be in the mid-80s this time tomorrow.

[MossMan]

49 minutes ago, Blizzard777 said:

My vehicle awaits the assault from the storms in a bit !!! The action should start in a few hours here in Oklahoma City. Currently very windy !!

You need one of these!! 

[Phil]

41 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

A gorgeous 75 here and all blue sky here...  waaaaaaay to your south. 

Yeah Atlantic influence actually helps at this time of year. Water temps similar to late Nov at this point in the seasonal cycle.

That script flips completely by midsummer, though.

[Phil]

This niño definitely isn’t collapsing the way 1998 did. Cold tongue is more pronounced like 1973 and 1988.

Overall, 2010 is still the best global SSTA match.

 

Note how 1998 still had the raging EPAC warm anomaly (and maintained it into the summer). So I think the LF signature of tropical forcing will be displaced into the E-Hem as the niña establishes (relatively speaking).

[TT-SEA]

16 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yeah Atlantic influence actually helps at this time of year. Water temps similar to late Nov at this point in the seasonal cycle.

That script flips completely by midsummer, though.

High clouds now... day is ruined! 

[MossMan]

Brrr. 

[TT-SEA]

On a personal note.... being in the pool is the first time I can walk and feel normal since February.    Unfortunately I still need crutches when I get out.   But I am able to put weight on bad leg now and use crutches more for balance.  My physical therapist said last week he wanted me to go the public pool in NB or Issaquah for walking exercises and I said I can do even better than that being Charleston.

[Blizzard777]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

You need one of these!! 

That’s pretty cool!!!
 

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

This niño definitely isn’t collapsing the way 1998 did. Cold tongue is more pronounced like 1973 and 1988.

Overall, 2010 is still the best global SSTA match.

 

Note how 1998 still had the raging EPAC warm anomaly (and maintained it into the summer). So I think the LF signature of tropical forcing will be displaced into the E-Hem as the niña establishes (relatively speaking).

In 2010 the Pacific was freezing all summer and coastal areas were setting record low highs almost every day. The rest of the country baked.

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

On a personal note.... being in the pool is the first time I can walk and feel normal since February.    Unfortunately I still need crutches when I get out.   But I am able to put weight on bad leg now and use crutches more for balance.  My physical therapist said last week he wanted me to go the public pool in NB or Issaquah for walking exercises and I said I can do even better than that being Charleston.

Maybe OmegaXL will help you to be able to walk-kkkkk again like it did for the old lady on the commercial with the blue winter coat who talk-kkkkks funny.

[Phishy Wx]

just had a hail shower