May 2024 Pacific Northwest Weather

[TT-SEA]

Lets do a summary since its a rainy Sunday morning with not much else to do! 

2024 departures:

BLI   +0.91

UIL   -0.09

HQM +3.69

SEA WFO -0.32

SEA   -3.65 (missing data)

OLM  -0.32

 

PDX  +4.01

SLE  +4.94

EUG  +4.24

AST  +5.24

Those PDX NWS area anomalies are impressive.  

SEA NWS area is closer to normal overall... but SEA really stands out as an outlier particularly given SEA WFO is very close to normal.

The talk of it being extremely dry is a false narrative when looking at the actual numbers. 

[SnarkyGoblin]

41 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Seems like a climate I would really appreciate. I could go raise sheep there, though my politics are likely far too radical for Western Europe. 

I have farmer family and city folk family.  I much prefer visiting the farmer family for many reasons.  If I want sun, we'll go far south.  The rain and humid air really helps with the lush green grass for things like sheep, cows, butter, and cheese.  I guess the same could be said for most of northern Europe. My gripe with that climate is the lack of extremes.  Might snow even less than Seattle there.

You can always move and vote for the "animal first" party that actually exists in France.  Very pro animal rights group.  The benefit of a (pseudo) parliament - many different views you can vote for.

[TT-SEA]

50 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

I’m at 8.18” on the year. A minus 6” departure, but 4” more than this time last year. Keep telling me I’m crazy tho and not in drought.

So... I checked out Sequim up there.    Sequim is actually +0.05 for the year.   Right in line with UIL and not even drier than normal. 

It appears the extreme drought is isolated to only your backyard.   Because its almost perfectly normal where you work and farther to your west at UIL.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

So... I checked out Sequim up there.    Sequim is actually +0.05 for the year.   Right in line with UIL and not drier than normal at all. 

It appears the extreme drought is isolated to only your backyard.   Because its almost perfectly normal where you work and farther to your west at UIL.   

MICRO drought. 

[BLI snowman]

14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

With the potential Nina coming, I feelz it strongly.

Let's hope. Other Nino to Nina years like 2010, 1998, and 1983 all did the 60" business here.

But honestly I'd love to break through that glass ceiling and just go straight for 70", Andrew. 

Edited May 5 by BLI snowman

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Let's hope. Other Nino to Nina years like 2010, 1998, and 1983 all did the 60" business here.

But honestly I'd love to break through that glass ceiling and just go straight for 70", Andrew. 

A warmer world is also wetter! 

[AlTahoe]

22F this morning. Finished the storm with 8" of snow which is my new record for May (since 2010). Squaw valley reporting 26" this morning! 

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS looks much drier next week than the 06Z run.

Blessings for a water-logged region!  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS looks much drier next week than the 06Z run.

Blessings for a water-logged region!  

After a drier than normal April, the region is anything, but water logged, but apparently you have no idea what to do on a wet day.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

After a drier than normal April, the region is anything, but water logged, but apparently you have no idea what to do on a wet day.

The numbers say western OR and SW WA are waterlogged this year and particularly now after this recent major rain event.  

But that is just a logical view based on actual stats...and not a drought paranoia PTSD view.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Raining or not, this is really the nicest time of year. 

[Front Ranger]

Striking. Though as Tim has pointed out in many different ways, there are some issues with some of the Seattle area numbers.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Striking. Though as Tim has pointed out in many different ways, there are some issues with some of the Seattle area numbers.

HQM looks drier than normal there... but actual data shows +3.69 inches for the year.  

I don't believe anything for King County.   SEA WFO and Snoqualmie Falls/North Bend are right around normal for the year with no missing data.   

I really think the WRCC maps always lean drier than reality because it incorporates too many stations with data issues.   And missing data for rainfall always skews things drier than reality.  

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like another 1.5" or so here. We are already over 3" on the month. May here is still a fairly MOIST month with average rainfall of around 4.5".

SLE has already blown by their monthly average precip for May. 

I also see they are running -5.0 for the month. Meanwhile, PDX running -2.8 

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

HQM looks drier than normal there... but actual data shows +3.69 inches for the year.  

I don't believe anything for King County.   SEA WFO and Snoqualmie Falls/North Bend are right around normal for the year with no missing data.   

I really think the WRCC maps always lean drier than reality because it incorporates too many stations with data issues.   And missing data for rainfall always skews things drier than reality.  

Yep. But the overall theme is clear. OR has been MUCH wetter than WA so far this year.

And there should not be any real drought concerns for the vast majority of the PNW after Tuesday.

[AlTahoe]

The Sierra snow lab and their snowiest day of the year yesterday. wow

 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Yep. But the overall theme is clear. OR has been MUCH wetter than WA so far this year.

And there should not be any real drought concerns for the vast majority of the PNW after Tuesday.

Except for @Port Angeles Foothiller backyard of course!   He might have put up a transparent dome over his property and not telling us.  

[Skagit Weather]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Except for @Port Angeles Foothiller backyard of course!   He might have put up a transparent dome over his property and not telling us.  

It's almost like total accumulated precipitation isn't the only variable that determines drought in the PNW. 2015 had near normal precipitation through the first 5 months of the year and I remember the region having a couple water issues that summer. And maybe if the spring rains stopped early next week and it was near to above average temperatures for the rest of the summer we'd see some of those same issues arise. Maybe rainy days serve multiple purposes...

But it is true, that currently in terms of pure rainfall we are in a much better situation than last spring.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I've been agreeing with @Front Ranger a LOT lately. Better check my temp. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Skagit Weather said:

It's almost like total accumulated precipitation isn't the only variable that determines drought in the PNW. 2015 had near normal precipitation through the first 5 months of the year and I remember the region having a couple water issues that summer. And maybe if the spring rains stopped early next week and it was near to above average temperatures for the rest of the summer we'd see some of those same issues arise. Maybe rainy days serve multiple purposes...

But it is true, that currently in terms of pure rainfall we are in a much better situation than last spring.

No, let’s just get a whole month’s rainfall out of the way in a couple days as often as we can Then we’re good on rain and it can be hot and sunny the rest of the time

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

It's almost like total accumulated precipitation isn't the only variable that determines drought in the PNW. 2015 had near normal precipitation through the first 5 months of the year and I remember the region having a couple water issues that summer. And maybe if the spring rains stopped early next week and it was near to above average temperatures for the rest of the summer we'd see some of those same issues arise. Maybe rainy days serve multiple purposes...

But it is true, that currently in terms of pure rainfall we are in a much better situation than last spring.

2022 is the most extreme example of that.   It could not have been wetter through mid June and still ended up being a drought/fire mess. 

On the flip side is 2019 with a very dry spring and then a green summer with no smoke.  

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

No, let’s just get a whole month’s rainfall out of the way in a couple days as often as we can Then we’re good on rain and it can be hot and sunny the rest of the time

Nature is going to do what nature is going to do.    It wouldn't surprise me if that is sort of how it plays out.   Seems like you need to take this up with God.  

[Phishy Wx]

smashing records over here.  .14" so far on the day

[Deweydog]

HEAVY RAIN

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

smashing records over here.  .14" so far on the day

Well that is huge considering what you said earlier about living in a very dry climate.     That is 1% of your annual average in just one morning.  

[LowerGarfield]

Rain and showers today.  On a post church date with my wife. We had about 0.10 as of 8am, hopefully have a bit more now. I know its not much but better than being totally left out last week.

On a side note: Has anyone been to Belize, Loreto/La Paz, MX, or Costa Rica( I've been to Guanacaste before)? We're debating between those places for next year. Wife wouldn't mind going to Iceland.  But I'm wondering if you have any recommendations there that are good for kids and not the party scene. 

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF comes out in chunks now since the upgrade with the continental US map always finishing way faster than the others.   So we can get sneak preview every morning while waiting for the large scale North American map to update.

12Z ECMWF still looks quite lovely at day 10.

[LowerGarfield]

41 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Striking. Though as Tim has pointed out in many different ways, there are some issues with some of the Seattle area numbers.

Ewa needs more ran please.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF 850mb temps are white hot over western OR all the way out at day 10.  

[LowerGarfield]

35 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

The Sierra snow lab and their snowiest day of the year yesterday. wow

 

Really reminds me so much of 2010-2011.  I mention it all the time, but mini golfing in the snow flurries on Memorial Day in Southlake or Stateline is one of my favorite weather memories. Did it with a bunch of fellow college senior friends so it was kind of like our last hoorah. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF 850mb temps are white hot over western OR all the way out at day 10.  

Perfect heat dome. Maybe in the mid 100s if we are lucky. 

[Front Ranger]

22 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I've been agreeing with @Front Ranger a LOT lately. Better check my temp. 

This should be of grave concern for both of us.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Perfect heat dome. Maybe in the mid 100s if we are lucky. 

Actually only shows 70s and low 80s. 

[TT-SEA]

Not sure if the ridge is about to break down or amplify even more at the end of the 12Z ECMWF run.     

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Actually only shows 70s and low 80s. 

That will be a grave disappointment to folx on the PDX FB weather groups. 

[the_convergence_zone]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Even in the city of Seattle there are discrepancies.   

SEA is -3.65 on the year and missing a couple rainy days... but SEA WFO is essentially right at normal for 2024.  

And Boeing Field definitely has rainfall sensor issues.    SEA has had 13.52 inches for the year (missing data) and SEA WFO on the other side of BFI is at 15.24 inches.   But somehow BFI has only recorded 7.4 inches right in between those stations.   Clearly not right. 

But that would help paint a catastrophic red on the anomaly map over Seattle which takes into account all stations and add to the drought paranoia that runs wild on here.  

I live close to BFI and I got more than that just in January

[Front Ranger]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF 850mb temps are white hot over western OR all the way out at day 10.  

GFS way cooler. And GEM has the middle ground.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That will be a grave disappointment to folx on the PDX FB weather groups. 

No offshore flow.   Just pleasantly warm and sunny with onshore flow keeping things in check.   

[Phishy Wx]

14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF 850mb temps are white hot over western OR all the way out at day 10.  

Death RIDGE 2024

[Cascadia_Wx]

What a beautiful morning out. Moderate rain with a temp of 47, after a low of 46. The green is so intense out there it’s hard to put into words.

Up to .15 on the day already with showers backfilling from the east again. 1.6” since Friday afternoon, with over an inch falling yesterday alone. Ended up with a 52/47 spread yesterday.