MossMan Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Up to 1.36” on the day. 49 and heavy drizzle. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, Jesse said: We are so lucky to have someone here who is not AFRAID to show the TRUTH. The thing is there have been GEM runs that have been more insane. Just hate seeing the GFS bashed so much when it's not alone. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 12 minutes ago, seattleweatherguy said: Id be happy to see flurries in a conversion zone next weekend There is no "convergence" zone shown for next weekend at this point. That does not happen with dry air and a northerly wind. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Just now, snow_wizard said: The thing is there have been GEM runs that have been more insane. Just hate seeing the GFS bashed so much when it's not alone. That is really something important to hate. 3 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Would be nice to know if there have been any conference calls about next weekend. 1 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: There is no "convergence" zone shown for next weekend at this point. That does not happen with dry air and a northerly wind. The best shot for snow would be either from overrunning when the low is south of us or during the backwash northerly surge behind the low as it exits. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: Would be nice to know if there have been any conference calls about next weekend. I would guess not, but I would think some of the GEM and GFS runs have raised some eyebrows at least. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 49 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Idk man still 6 days out. I’ll be watching to see but I’m thinking the gfs is just doing what it did in January. Seriously, this. I think it’s safe to conclude that we’re in for a spell of significantly cooler weather, and at this stage that’s about it. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: That is really something important to hate. Good point. Hate was probably the wrong word. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: Seriously, this. I think it’s safe to conclude that we’re in for a spell of significantly cooler weather, and at this stage that’s about it. Probably true. That's what 1949 was too. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 9 minutes ago, MossMan said: Up to 1.36” on the day. 49 and heavy drizzle. Yeah... radar does not accurately depict the situation. I looked at the radar and thought maybe the rain is about to let up here... but then looked upstream at Bellevue where the radar does not even show it raining. 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said: Seriously, this. I think it’s safe to conclude that we’re in for a spell of significantly cooler weather, and at this stage that’s about it. Indubitably. Although even that, in and of itself, is simply academic at this juncture. Quite. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 45 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z GFS also shows some crazy snow totals across the Midwest as well... This is actually possible 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: This is actually possible Looks like my relatives in Minnesota are right in the bullseye! Perhaps it’s time for a visit. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Seattle on top... Portland on the bottom. Just a bit different. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 6 minutes ago, MossMan said: Looks like my relatives in Minnesota are right in the bullseye! Perhaps it’s time for a visit. Inlaws relatives in Billings, Montana were posting pics of snow on facebook this morning. It looks like they are in for a stretch of pretty cold and wintry weather this week. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Seattle on top... Portland on the bottom. Just a bit different. Looks like Seattle here. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Looks like Seattle here. Luckily we should look like that later today too. These sunbreaks are getting old. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 12Z ECMWF is about to start! 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z ECMWF is about to start! AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 12z GFS ensemble is really nippy. The operational bottoms out at -7 for SEA and the mean bottoms out at -4.6 with a number of members solidly below -5. About as cold as it gets this early if it verifies. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Heh. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, iFred said: > Model we generally discount but enjoy sharing when there is cold and snow Soon-to-be-mod-previewed: All of the other models are warmer and worse. > The model we usually discount shows warmer solutions and snow elsewhere so we don’t talk about it Soon-to-be-mod-previewed: Check out this amazing GFS run! 40ft of snow in Arizona, ice storms in New Orleans, and glaciers are reclaiming the Great Lakes. At least with highs 80s, I can enjoy some lake side activities. ‘tis the season Everyone has been very well behaved today. Probably because winter hasn't officially started yet! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 29 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: This is actually possible Wrong. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 BTW...the GEM is colder than the GFS again on the 12z. 528 thickness line drops way into Oregon. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, El_Nina said: Wrong. It's 2020. The impossible is possible this year. Being real though a significant snow event before the 26th or so would be unprecedented in the period of record. Fun to think about though! Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 6 minutes ago, FroYoBro said: Everyone has been very well behaved today. Probably because winter hasn't officially started yet! Good point. This is just plain fun to consider the possible outcomes. It's too early for there to be anyy real skin in the game yet. That having been said a cold snap like some model runs are showing would be something special. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 The models really do agree on that low swinging inland south of Seattle on Friday some real impressive backwash cold / CAA behind the low. Never seen anything like it so early. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 52 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Would be nice to know if there have been any conference calls about next weekend. I’ve heard there has been one or two with the Culver guy. Have not yet heard the details. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 12Z ECMWF already farther west on Wednesday morning than previous runs. 1 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 The Euro looks fantastic at day 3. Best yet. 1 2 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Good point. This is just plain fun to consider the possible outcomes. It's too early for there to be anyy real skin in the game yet. That having been said a cold snap like some model runs are showing would be something special. As long as you are having fun, I love seeing the possibilities...I just know in the past you stop having fun at certain points... 1 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Up to 50! I now have breezy drizzle. Up to 1.39” on the day. Was at the lake a bit ago...Looks like my uncle forgot to pull the plugs in my fishing boat when he used it to paint the sides of the dock. Lots of water! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 3 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said: Breezy and rainy here. Finally getting some rainfall here in the rain shadow. Had some pretty heavy rain here last night between 12~2am, with nearly 0.8" overnight. Just drizzle here now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 5 minutes ago, MossMan said: Up to 50! I now have breezy drizzle. Up to 1.39” on the day. Was at the lake a bit ago...Looks like my uncle forgot to pull the plugs in my fishing boat when he used it to paint the sides of the dock. Lots of water! It's both a boat and a rain gauge. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 The 3 to 5 day period on the ECMWF is way colder than previous runs. 1 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Omg it’s happening guyz. 1 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Day 6 on the ECMWF puts more emphasis on continental cold as opposed to the wetter low pressure scenario. Really chilly at face value. 1 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Much less precip with the Friday into Saturday system on the 12Z ECMWF... 1 1 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Much less precip with the Friday into Saturday system on the 12Z ECMWF... So tired of dry arctic blasts. 1 4 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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