Phil Posted August 8, 2014 Report Share Posted August 8, 2014 There were 3 hurricanes in the Central Pacific. On your chart, the purple blob is Genevieve crossing the dateline. Do you think the hurricanes brought the zonal winds north or vice versa? By what mechanism does this translate into a September PNW trough? http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-147.10,-13.06,380The upper level winds are what allowed the cyclones to move west w/o being sheared apart, and may have inadvertently enhanced them.I'm examining the axis of -AAM between 10-20N, spanning the globe and moving poleward. It is a product of the maturing -QBO. The coming trough in the west would be a result of MJO/QBO forcing trumping the antecedent ENSO circulation.. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 9, 2014 Report Share Posted August 9, 2014 Well the 12Z certainly takes things in a different direction.Euro. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 9, 2014 Report Share Posted August 9, 2014 Euro.Looks fairly similar to the GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 9, 2014 Report Share Posted August 9, 2014 Looks fairly similar to the GFS.The GFS has been way too amplified all of the sudden. Euro's been far more consistent and moderate. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted August 9, 2014 Report Share Posted August 9, 2014 47 this morning here in BG. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 9, 2014 Report Share Posted August 9, 2014 The GFS is giving me motion sickness. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 9, 2014 Report Share Posted August 9, 2014 Big change in the ensemble mean from the 06z to the 12z in the mid-long range. From up around +20c to down around +10c. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 9, 2014 Report Share Posted August 9, 2014 Big change in the ensemble mean from the 06z to the 12z in the mid-long range. From up around +20c to down around +10c.Get ready for #westerntroughing from late-month into September! 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 9, 2014 Report Share Posted August 9, 2014 Get ready for #westerntroughing from late-month into September! That actually happens? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 9, 2014 Report Share Posted August 9, 2014 That actually happens? It's a rare phenomenon nowadays..but yes, it does! Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 9, 2014 Report Share Posted August 9, 2014 It's a rare phenomenon nowadays..but yes, it does! It would be nice but I will believe it when I see it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 9, 2014 Report Share Posted August 9, 2014 It would be nice but I will believe it when I see it. I've been there. The 2011-2012 super-torch still haunts me. Even now my subconscious fears its return.. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 9, 2014 Report Share Posted August 9, 2014 Uh oh: http://catchmypicture.com/cRAFby.jpg Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 10, 2014 Report Share Posted August 10, 2014 Go on?Western troughing, man! Looks like a delayed Fall for me...I seriously hate that. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted August 10, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 10, 2014 Go on?#westerntroughing 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted August 10, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 10, 2014 Western troughing, man! Looks like a delayed Fall for me...I seriously hate that.What does a delayed fall even mean? Does that mean delayed rain? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 10, 2014 Report Share Posted August 10, 2014 What does a delayed fall even mean? Does that mean delayed rain?Means a delayed transition to Autumn wx...? In my area that usually entails a lack of morning frosts, weak steering flow, and fog/low clouds every morning..hideous Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted August 10, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 10, 2014 Means a delayed transition to Autumn wx...? In my area that usually entails a lack of morning frosts, weak steering flow, and fog/low clouds every morning..hideousI knew the bold part, the text after the text I bold is what I wanted to know for you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 10, 2014 Report Share Posted August 10, 2014 I knew the bold part, the text after the text I bold is what I wanted to know for you.Ah, I see. I might flip my lid if I have to wait until October (again) for Canadian air Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted August 10, 2014 Report Share Posted August 10, 2014 00z WRF shows tons of convection Sunday through Wednesday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 10, 2014 Report Share Posted August 10, 2014 http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2013/09/25/jimmy-fallon-illustrates-how-annoying-hashtags-are-and-why-you-should-stop-using-them-so-much/ I hope we have some of lightninging this week coming up next! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted August 10, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 10, 2014 Ah, I see. I might flip my lid if I have to wait until October (again) for Canadian airSorry, we're keeping it locked up north of the border. It's too risky letting it cross the border. It might buy all your milk! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brody Posted August 10, 2014 Report Share Posted August 10, 2014 00z WRF shows tons of convection Sunday through Wednesday.I was just going to post about this, the PDX metro area has the highest values esp. Monday aft./eve with values at or above 2200-2400 J/Kg This will be fun to watch Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 10, 2014 Report Share Posted August 10, 2014 Sorry, we're keeping it locked up north of the border. It's too risky letting it cross the border. It might buy all your milk!Fine, be that way Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted August 10, 2014 Report Share Posted August 10, 2014 I was just going to post about this, the PDX metro area has the highest values esp. Monday aft./eve with values at or above 2200-2400 J/Kg This will be fun to watch LI's around -3 to -5 for most of the region Monday and Tuesday. Pretty explosive atmosphere. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted August 10, 2014 Report Share Posted August 10, 2014 Uh oh: http://catchmypicture.com/cRAFby.jpghey if this pattern were in winter would this mean snow? And i feel like taking a vacation this week. Perfect as in last week of hot weather? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted August 10, 2014 Report Share Posted August 10, 2014 thunder i hear may be for monday evening/night as well as tues... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 10, 2014 Report Share Posted August 10, 2014 Ah, I see. I might flip my lid if I have to wait until October (again) for Canadian airRight. From the guy saying he could see his breath with highs in the 50s just 10 days ago. Where the hell do you think that air came from??? Stop the martyr drama. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 10, 2014 Report Share Posted August 10, 2014 Stop the martyr drama. Look who's talking here July doesn't count..those temps would be considered warm here by late September. Plus, that was a disgusting, smoke-filled airmass Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 10, 2014 Report Share Posted August 10, 2014 hey if this pattern were in winter would this mean snow? And i feel like taking a vacation this week. Perfect as in last week of hot weather?Yeah, that would actually be an crazy snow pattern for the PNW lowlands in winter w/ that offshore ridge and poleward amplification/Rossby wave over NE Canada preventing the offshore ridge from pinching off...that's actually as good as it gets Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 10, 2014 Report Share Posted August 10, 2014 Has TheNewBigMack joined here? He was one of my favorite posters. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 10, 2014 Report Share Posted August 10, 2014 I'm really not seeing a long lasting troughy pattern setting in. 12z ensembles give us another heat wave week two. As it stands currently this is running as the warmest August in history at PDX. That is before the heat wave the next couple days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brody Posted August 10, 2014 Report Share Posted August 10, 2014 WRF still sticking with high CAPE and Li's starting tomorrow onward. Looks to be high based again Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 10, 2014 Report Share Posted August 10, 2014 I'm really not seeing a long lasting troughy pattern setting in. 12z ensembles give us another heat wave week two. As it stands currently this is running as the warmest August in history at PDX. That is before the heat wave the next couple days.We'll give something back during the second half of the month. It may not be a dream-trough scenario, but it'll do. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 10, 2014 Report Share Posted August 10, 2014 We'll give something back during the second half of the month. It may not be a dream-trough scenario, but it'll do.But I like dream-troughs. :'( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 10, 2014 Report Share Posted August 10, 2014 But I like dream-troughs. :'(Breezy overcast can change lives. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 10, 2014 Report Share Posted August 10, 2014 Breezy overcast can change lives. Yeah, everything is absolutely meaningless. Good point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 10, 2014 Report Share Posted August 10, 2014 Yeah, everything is absolutely meaningless. Good point.It'll snow either way next winter. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 10, 2014 Report Share Posted August 10, 2014 It'll snow either way next winter. But will it hot and muggy this late August/early September again? I certainly hope not!! Can't decide if the pattern next week will be muggy or not in the wake of the midweek trough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 10, 2014 Report Share Posted August 10, 2014 But will it hot and muggy this late August/early September again? I certainly hope not!! Can't decide if the pattern next week will be muggy or not in the wake of the midweek trough.If you want snow, buy an air conditioner and man up. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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