Pacific NW August 2014 Discussion

[Phil]

Farmers almanac predicting another brutal winter over most the US. Overall, their winter predictions have been great lately (with some regional discrepancies). I believe they've nailed their last 6 forecasts for the US as a whole

 

http://m.almanac.com/sites/new.almanac.com/files/2015_usa_release.pdf

[GHweatherChris]

They are

 

Farmers almanac predicting another brutal winter over most the US. Overall, their winter predictions have been great lately (with some regional discrepancies). I believe they've nailed their last 6 forecasts for the US as a whole

http://m.almanac.com/sites/new.almanac.com/files/2015_usa_release.pdf

LOL.

 

Regional discrepancies when wrong equals failure.

 

I don't care if overall it is considered successful, I do not live in the whole USA, I live in the PNW, which overall they have failed with the last two winters.

[Phil]

They are

 

LOL.

 

Regional discrepancies when wrong equals failure.

 

I don't care if overall it is considered successful, I do not live in the whole USA, I live in the PNW, which overall they have failed with the last two winters.

When I make a forecast, I do my best to get the location of my anomalies correctly..as do all forecasters. Sadly, sometimes we're a few hundred miles off..and that NPAC ridge that was originally your friend becomes your enemy, if you live in the PNW.

 

I give credit where credit is due...the OFA has done very well on the large scale, during the winter months. They accurately predicted the -NAO dominated 2010-11 winter, the torch-dominated 2011-12 winter, the "two-faced" 2012-13 winter, and the "icebox" 2013-14 winter.

[GHweatherChris]

When I make a forecast, I do my best to get the location of my anomalies correctly..as do all forecasters. Sadly, sometimes we're a few hundred miles off..and that NPAC ridge that was originally your friend becomes your enemy, if you live in the PNW.

 

I give credit where credit is due...the OFA has done very well on the large scale, during the winter months. They accurately predicted the -NAO dominated 2010-11 winter, the torch-dominated 2011-12 winter, the "two-faced" 2012-13 winter, and the "icebox" 2013-14 winter.

And I don't look at it the same way.  Sorry.

[Phil]

And I don't look at it the same way. Sorry.

That's fine.

 

My take is, given the fact that this field is still in its infant stages, your expectations are unreasonable. Forecasting 6+ months out is extremely difficult

[richard mann]

That's fine.

 

My take is, given the fact that this field is still in its infant stages, your expectations are unreasonable. Forecasting 6+ months out is extremely difficult

 

.. Presuming the "this field" element of your first main sentence here above, is related to the "Forecasting 6+ month out" one of your second sentence more main here, ...

 

How does the whole "in its infant stages" idea tied in, where considering what you've suggested, exactly. ? 

 

That is, per your appreciation, how is the idea—(i.e. "field" of, whatever "[more extended extended timeframe] forecasting". ?)—being looked at now at this point, set beside how you invision it might be perhaps otherwise, more deeply in the future. ? / ... What's being looked at now, set beside what might be, either whether better, or otherwise, latter. ? .. This whether by the people at "Farmer's Almanac", or elsewhere. ?

[Phil]

Just updated my sig for the impending winter. Am I the first?

 

This is most likely my last winter here before we move...I'm already nervous about adjusting to a new climate.

[Jesse]

Shame the Euro had to turn so unimpressive the minute the GFS started spitting out decent solutions.

[Tyler Mode]

Cloudy and foggy here in BG.  Low of 56, sadly the coolest low since the 10th.

[Jesse]

Cloudy and foggy here in BG.  Low of 56, sadly the coolest low since the 10th.

 

Cooler lows are coming soon! Even the weaker retrogression solution shown on the EURO would give us Northerly to NWrly flow and drier air by next week.

[Deweydog]

12z at least taking a step in the right direction...

[Jesse]

12z at least taking a step in the right direction...

 

I thought you wanted more ridging?

[Deweydog]

I thought you wanted more ridging?

 

What I want doesn't matter.  

[Jesse]

What I want doesn't matter.  

 

Really nice retrogression solution on the 12Z. Although until the EURO comes back around I won't get too excited.

 

Potential is certainly there for a significant early season event, though.

[Deweydog]

Really nice retrogression solution on the 12Z. Although until the EURO comes back around I won't get too excited.

 

Potential is certainly there for a significant early season event, though.

 

GFS is probably too meridional, as it has been in the longer range for quite some time.  

[Jesse]

GFS is probably too meridional, as it has been in the longer range for quite some time.  

 

EURO has definitely trended toward a less amplified offshore ridge. GFS sure would be fun if it panned out, though.

 

Whatever the case we should be just about done with lows in the 60s soon!

[Deweydog]

EURO has definitely trended toward a less amplified offshore ridge. GFS sure would be fun if it panned out, though.

 

Whatever the case we should be just about done with lows in the 60s soon!

 

No doubt.  They would have to sell tickets and hire food vendors.  Too bad the elephant ear and funnel cake people will be tied up at the Long Beach Kite Festival.  The mayor of Morton, WA could be the grand marshal.

 

Could be the first mildly-strong late-August trough in almost two years.  

[Jesse]

No doubt.  They would have to sell tickets and hire food vendors.  Too bad the elephant ear and funnel cake people will be tied up at the Long Beach Kite Festival.  The mayor of Morton, WA could be the grand marshal.  

 

Could be the first mildly-strong late-August trough in almost two years.  

 

Nihilism is an interesting life philosophy, I'm sure.

[Deweydog]

Nihilism is an interesting life philosophy, I'm sure.

 

I go back and fourth on that one...

 

Anyway, I think it's probably ok.  

[Jesse]

I go back and fourth on that one...

 

Anyway, I think it's probably ok.  

 

Who really cares anyway? We'll all grow old and die someday.

[Deweydog]

Who really cares anyway? We'll all grow old and die someday.

 

There's a balance.  

 

But you're right...  Do you have life insurance?  

 

[Jesse]

I go back and fourth on that one...

 

Anyway, I think it's probably ok.  

 

Was this a quote from The Big Lebowski, by any chance?

[Jesse]

There's a balance.  

 

But you're right...  Do you have life insurance?  

 

 

Glad to hear you believe that. I was worried about your immortal soul for a minute there.

[Deweydog]

Glad to hear you believe that. I was worried about your immortal soul for a minute there.

 

There's your first mistake right there.  

[Deweydog]

Was this a quote from The Big Lebowski, by any chance?

 

I don't think so... but that is a good ******* movie.  

[Jesse]

There's your first mistake right there.  

 

[Deweydog]

 

You're just a guy and so am I.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think there is a very good chance of another region wide arctic outbreak this winter. Probably in December.

[Deweydog]

I think there is a very good chance of another region wide arctic outbreak this winter. Probably in December.

 

Not if we don't break out of this stratus.  

 

*edit-  looks like we are!!!

[Jesse]

I think there is a very good chance of another region wide arctic outbreak this winter. Probably in December.

 

I'm beginning to think it's possible the September-December period as a whole ends up below average.

[Deweydog]

I'm beginning to think it's possible the September-December period as a whole ends up below average.

Why?

[Jesse]

Why?

 

Just a hunch. I'll probably be wrong. 

 

We tend to get stuck in ruts lately it seems. If an offshore ridging regime establishes itself now I could imagine it being a theme for the next several months perhaps.

 

The progression of a hot summer ridge retrograding to give a cool Fall/early Winter is not without precedent. See 1985.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Right now September is looking close to average.

[Jesse]

Right now September is looking close to average.

 

Says the CFS.

 

My sig is saying it might be a hot one! Tough call!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think a winter somewhat similar to last, or 2009/10 is pretty possible. 

 

I think we'll score a good January with our next Nina.

 

Just a hunch. I'll probably be wrong. 

 

We tend to get stuck in ruts lately it seems. If an offshore ridging regime establishes itself now I could imagine it being a theme for the next several months perhaps.

 

The progression of a hot summer ridge retrograding to give a cool Fall/early Winter is not without precedent. See 1985.

[Jesse]

I think a winter somewhat similar to last, or 2009/10 is pretty possible. 

 

I think we'll score a good January with our next Nina.

 

ENSO based similarities between the upcoming winter and 2009-10 are fading. 

 

I agree that there is a good chance this winter is front-loaded like that one, though.

[Deweydog]

Just a hunch. I'll probably be wrong.

 

We tend to get stuck in ruts lately it seems. If an offshore ridging regime establishes itself now I could imagine it being a theme for the next several months perhaps.

 

The progression of a hot summer ridge retrograding to give a cool Fall/early Winter is not without precedent. See 1985.

Maybe, maybe not. I have no clue, beyond what I think will be a warm September.

[Jesse]

Maybe, maybe not. I have no clue, beyond what I think will be a warm September.

 

Why?

[Jesse]

Looks like the Euro took a step toward the GFS in the mid-range. Nice.

[Deweydog]

Why?

Already did, weeks ago. That plus longer term trends makes me feel like it's a relatively safe call.