December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[snow_wizard]

3 hours ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

So what were the WB people saying about later December?  Was Bastardi one of them?

I'm not sure which one did the write up, but he expressed confidence of a pattern reversal for late December through mid January with a cold Western trough.

[umadbro]

33/50 today. Putting up the Christmas lights today it was the coldest 50 degrees I've felt even with full sunshine. 38 now.

 

 

[snow_wizard]

35 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Chilly day up in the snow in Gifford Pinchot. Didn’t break freezing by much up the Wind River Valley.

Looks like we had a 47/36 day back home.

Had a pretty crazy 58 / 30 here today.  I have managed to thread the needle between all of the clouds and wind and do ok for low temps this month so far.

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Had a pretty crazy 58 / 30 here today.

We all need to chip in and buy you a gorge for Christmas.

[Gradient Keeper]

21 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Here is last nights GEFS 35 day run, starting with day 17.

 

Wow. That's phenomenal. Nice amplified block with good tilt at times.

[Gradient Keeper]

Temp down to 38.8, dewpoint 24.8 with howling east winds. VERY cold east wind.

[MossMan]

I wore shorts and mowed in early December 2008. I also sat on my deck in shorts in mid January 2019...

I’m chaining up my mower plow tomorrow. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Temp down to 38.8, dewpoint 24.8 with howling east winds. VERY cold east wind.

No, January 5th will be a cold east wind! 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 1

[jakerepp]

Car died while driving last night. Just flat out quit. Got to stand out in the cold With my brother in law and father in law for 2.5 hours while waiting for the AAA tow to arrive.

Might be looking for a new car here soon. Merry Christmas to me!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

13 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Wow. That's phenomenal. Nice amplified block with good tilt at times.

I have been impressed with the consistency of the long term models, (Euro weeklies and the 35 day GEFS).  And also the mid term ensembles that go out to 16 days.  Devil is in the details, but they all show pretty much the same thing.

[Gradient Keeper]

3 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Car died while driving last night. Just flat out quit. Got to stand out in the cold With my brother in law and father in law for 2.5 hours while waiting for the AAA tow to arrive.

Might be looking for a new car here soon. Merry Christmas to me!

Man that sucks!

Merry Christmas

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Car died while driving last night. Just flat out quit. Got to stand out in the cold With my brother in law and father in law for 2.5 hours while waiting for the AAA tow to arrive.

Might be looking for a new car here soon. Merry Christmas to me!

What do you drive? 

[snow_wizard]

14 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I wore shorts and mowed in early December 2008. I also sat on my deck in shorts in mid January 2019...

I’m chaining up my mower plow tomorrow. 

A lot of wisdom there.  It's common to have an abnormal warm period before it gets cold.  Many times the worse sign of all is a flat "normal" pattern.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

[Jesse]

34 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

We all need to chip in and buy you a gorge for Christmas.

It’s the gift that keeps on giving.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

[TT-SEA]

16 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

A lot of wisdom there.  It's common to have an abnormal warm period before it gets cold.  Many times the worse sign of all is a flat "normal" pattern.

Well... thank God we did not have just a boring, soupy, dank inversion then.   Dodged that miserable bullet and set ourselves up nicely for a white Christmas!  

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 Hmmm....

[Jesse]

32 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

A lot of wisdom there.  It's common to have an abnormal warm period before it gets cold.  Many times the worse sign of all is a flat "normal" pattern.

Of course we’ve had a ton of abnormal warm periods without any cold to show for it over the last few decades too.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[Jesse]

There is an impressive amount of snow on the upper Wind River right now, for this early. Went sledding and snow shoeing in the McClellan Meadows/Old Man Pass area this afternoon. There is already a solid 1-2’ at the 3,000ft level.

Caught the tail end of the sunset and aforementioned cloud shield moving over St. Helens too.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[Jesse]

4 hours ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Took a drive with the gf out to Port Townsend. First time being out here

Lovely area. My dad lives about five minutes from that pier. We go out there almost every time we visit.

[Jesse]

Just got my first look at the 18z. That was a good run.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[snow_wizard]

things are looking interesting at day 10 on the GFS.  Lots of blocking trying to set up.

[snow_wizard]

18 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Of course we’ve had a ton of abnormal warm periods without any cold to show for it over the last few decades too.

With a Nina that is pretty rare.  That is especially true with an exceptional pattern like this.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 11 Look at that trough I would pee extensively many times if the GEFS somehow, miraculously shows this.

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 11 Look at that trough I would pee extensively many times if the GEFS somehow, miraculously shows this.

Just your casual 944mb Haida Gwaii low... lol

[Gradient Keeper]

944mb low near Haida Gwaii(Queen Charlottes)

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

Just your casual 944mb Haida Gwaii low... lol

We literally posted that at the same time. This can only mean SNOW is coming.

[Jesse]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Had a pretty crazy 58 / 30 here today.  I have managed to thread the needle between all of the clouds and wind and do ok for low temps this month so far.

We’ve scored two good freezes so far this month. Had a low of 29 yesterday morning and 30 on Tuesday morning.

Highs have generally been running cooler than up there thanks to the gorge. The warmest it’s been here is just 54, and 3/5 days so far have had highs in the 40s.

[Meatyorologist]

Oh man, GFS might be going places. *might*....

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty insane mountain snow on this run. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Oh man, GFS might be going places. *might*....

At this point doesn't look like enough blocking on this run, but could be some cold maritime air. 

[Gradient Keeper]

It's coming. Patience.... Patience.

3 Days later: "We just need to be patient."

5 Days later: "It's just a minor hiccup. We must remain patient."

7 Days later: "It's okay. The pattern needs to do a 'reset' with 1-2 weeks of onshore flow.... and then."

2 Weeks later: "Hey. At least we've had some rain and a few feet of power for the mountains. It could be worse."

1 Month later: "Look on the bright side. 3 out of 14,980 ensembles members have shown a cold pattern. We'll get there. Late January is our time to shine."

2 months later: "I'm wearing shorts today. The Korean model looks interesting. Who wants BBQ?"